End of season in jeopardy?

[knapplc]

My point is we need to stop living in fear as a society.  Do what is necessary to keep hospitals running, but stop with the doom and gloom close everything down and live in the basement mentality.  There is no reason to stop football, pull kids out of school, etc, because no matter what mandates are implemented, we aren't going to control this nations youth.

You keep saying America is "living in fear." We aren't. Maybe you are, or you perceive it that way because people stay at home and wear masks and socially distance, but if that's your definition of "living in fear" that's pretty weak. Masks, social distancing and going out less often are simple preventative measures we can all take to help control spread.

In the same breath you say you want to do what is necessary to keep hospitals running and then accuse people who are doing what is necessary to keep hospitals running of "living in fear." It's a strange dichotomy. 

 

[Cdog923]

So my mom and step dad having the virus and recovering is mis information?  Should I post their medical records for you to view?  STFU

Or the misinformation on improved treatments?  

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/20/914374901/advances-in-icu-care-are-saving-more-patients-who-have-covid-19

What exactly was incorrect in my post?  

Your personal anecdotes are not indicative of how the virus is treating everyone, or do your mother and stepfather's experiences invalidate the fact that my brother in law is still having trouble breathing 5 months after having Covid? Stop minimizing the dangers and unknowns of this virus; you've been doing it for 8 months now. 

 

[Hilltop]

I'm happy for your mom and step dad. My completely healthy 26-year-old friend who played college soccer and is in great shape got it and was severely ill for three weeks and almost had to go on a ventilator. She still is having complications from getting it in July. The ICU beds in Wichita right now are all full of people with similar stories. I am about done tolerating people talking about COVID like this. It is a highly contagious and deadly illness and we can all collectively make minor sacrifices to prevent its spread. Stop being an a$$h@!e and do them.

I'm glad your friend is recovering.  It is horrible that some people have died or are still suffering.

I also think it is terrible if our society doesn't recognize the improvements and the realities about the current situation.

On July 24th, the state of Nebraska had 23,818 cases and 316 related deaths.  Basically 1 in every 75 people confirmed died.

Since then, the state has had 66,124 cases and 415 deaths.  Basically 1 in every 160 have died since July 24th.  

We know that there are considerably more cases that go un-reported.  Estimates are between 5 and 10 times the confirmed number.  Using the minimum 5 times estimate, the current death rate is .12% and dropping.  

I'm not being an a$$h@le for pointing out the facts of the situation.  I'm not suggesting that people stop making the minor sacrifices- quite the contrary.  I am suggesting that we change our mental approach to the situation to match the reality of our current situation.

 

[knapplc]

If the death rate is .12% a Nebraska population of 1.9 million people will have 288,000 deaths from this virus. 

I don't know what kind of bizarro world some people live in, but that is flatly unacceptable.

The basic math on herd immunity is horrific. Anyone pushing this as a viable option is living in a fantasy world.

Source

US population is 328.2 million. To start to achieve herd immunity (not completely but enough to be able to use other measures to control the virus) you need around 80%. So that means that you would need 262.6 million people to get infected. 

The WHO says 20% of those infected will need hospitalization but that was way back in March so let's say 15% need hospital care. That means 39.4 million people would need hospital treatment. That's over 42 times the entire hospital capacity of the entire USA.

Of those a number will unfortunately die. The US currently has a case fatality rate of 2.4%, meaning that of those who get infected, 2.4% will die. If 262.6 million people get infected, 6.3 million people will die. That is assuming every patient can get treatment, which would be unlikely with a healthcare system at 4200% max capacity.

If we include the fact that not everyone will get treatment, the numbers get very dire very quickly. Let's say that of those who need hospital treatment, 40% would die if they could not get treated. Let's also say that hospitals managed to get the number of beds up to 1 million. This would mean that 38.4 million people who need hospitalization would not get it. However not everyone gets sick at once, so let's say that the actual number of people who don't get hospitalization is half that, so 19.2 million people. This is incredibly generous considering that if the virus goes around completely unchecked, it can easily infect that many people in a few weeks. Of those 19.2 million people 40% will die. This means that the death toll would go up to 7.7 million, which would be a like the entire population of Los Angeles dying. Twice.

So "just plain dangerous" is an understatement. This approach is a crime against humanity.

 

[RedDenver]

If the death rate is .12% a Nebraska population of 1.9 million people will have 288,000 deaths from this virus. 

I don't know what kind of bizarro world some people live in, but that is flatly unacceptable.

That's incorrect. 0.12% = 0.0012, which calculates out to 1.9e6*0.0012=2280

 

[knapplc]

That's incorrect. 0.12% = 0.0012, which calculates out to 1.9e6*0.0012=2280

Math is dumb. But 2,280 deaths is still ridiculous. A segment of the population has been pushing herd immunity and getting back to normal as a solution to the pandemic, and it's crazy. 

To put that into perspective, in 2016 Nebraska had 118 traffic fatalities in crashes where the deceased were not wearing seat belts. 

2,280 people is nearly 20 years worth of such fatalities in one year. And had those people worn seat belts, you could cut those fatalities in half, or by 3/4. A simple safety measure, just like wearing a mask.

What annoys me more than anything is a healthy percentage of the current surge in hospitalizations in Lincoln & Omaha are from rural communities with insufficient medical facilities to treat patients. And those rural communities are very lax in mask wearing. 

 

[FrantzHardySwag]

I've worked with Dr. Wells. He is a fantastic physician and one of the best patients advocates we have in Omaha. He is also one of the brightest minds in pulmonary medicine in the entire state. Like @knapplcsays, its not about fear or politics - it's literally just the reality of the situation we are in. 

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

I agree that we can't live in fear, and that we will have to make new risk assessments as we determine how much of our daily lives we can get back to. There's no denying that these shutdowns have all kinds of other negative consequences, including suicides, domestic abuse, and crippling poverty. 

But isn't what we're doing "matching the reality of our current situation?"  Virtually every state re-opened, some apparently too big and too early, and many people who made a point about not living in fear insisted on attending large group events without wearing masks, and this attitude appears traceable to current surges in states that largely avoided the first round. 

As someone already pointed out, the crisis isn't so much the death count -- troubling as it continues to be -- it has always been the strain on the healthcare system, risking the lives of anyone who needs any kind of hospitalization. My dad was scheduled to be moved to hospice last week, but they gave his bed away because Lincoln hospitals had gone on "code red" and they needed the room for an emergency non-COVID case. That sort of stuff. 

I'm all for playing sports and think we should not discount the value of maintaining some normalcy and distraction for the mental health benefits. Most sports are doing a surprisingly good job, but I don't know how college football is going to get past the number of canceled games, infected players and staff,  and the validity of any championship scenario where one conference has played 8 games, another has played 2 and another has played zero. 

 

[Scarlet]

I am suggesting that we change our mental approach to the situation to match the reality of our current situation.

Change to what though?  Are you saying open up more?  

It didn't have to be like this.  If every science denying yahoo would have just worn a mask, correctly and the right type, stayed out of the bars and kept some sort of distance we'd be in a much better place now.  That's the facts.

It's not about living in fear.  It's a virus.  Ramrodding your wants through this situation isn't going to change the mechanics of a virus.  

Can you honestly say our society has been acting responsibly?  We wouldn't have had to lock down more, just do the right thing and do it right.

 

[Hilltop]

I agree that we can't live in fear, and that we will have to make new risk assessments as we determine how much of our daily lives we can get back to. There's no denying that these shutdowns have all kinds of other negative consequences, including suicides, domestic abuse, and crippling poverty. 

But isn't what we're doing "matching the reality of our current situation?"  Virtually every state re-opened, some apparently too big and too early, and many people who made a point about not living in fear insisted on attending large group events without wearing masks, and this attitude appears traceable to current surges in states that largely avoided the first round. 

As someone already pointed out, the crisis isn't so much the death count -- troubling as it continues to be -- it has always been the strain on the healthcare system, risking the lives of anyone who needs any kind of hospitalization. My dad was scheduled to be moved to hospice last week, but they gave his bed away because Lincoln hospitals had gone on "code red" and they needed the room for an emergency non-COVID case. That sort of stuff. 

I'm all for playing sports and think we should not discount the value of maintaining some normalcy and distraction for the mental health benefits. Most sports are doing a surprisingly good job, but I don't know how college football is going to get past the number of canceled games, infected players and staff,  and the validity of any championship scenario where one conference has played 8 games, another has played 2 and another has played zero. 

I would agree with you Guy- well stated.  I do feel that in general what we are doing is matching the reality of our situation.  I still encounter many in society that feel we should have much stricter measures- my posts are directed at that population of our society.  

 

[Husker NoNo]

I agree that we can't live in fear, and that we will have to make new risk assessments as we determine how much of our daily lives we can get back to. There's no denying that these shutdowns have all kinds of other negative consequences, including suicides, domestic abuse, and crippling poverty. 

But isn't what we're doing "matching the reality of our current situation?"  Virtually every state re-opened, some apparently too big and too early, and many people who made a point about not living in fear insisted on attending large group events without wearing masks, and this attitude appears traceable to current surges in states that largely avoided the first round. 

As someone already pointed out, the crisis isn't so much the death count -- troubling as it continues to be -- it has always been the strain on the healthcare system, risking the lives of anyone who needs any kind of hospitalization. My dad was scheduled to be moved to hospice last week, but they gave his bed away because Lincoln hospitals had gone on "code red" and they needed the room for an emergency non-COVID case. That sort of stuff. 

I'm all for playing sports and think we should not discount the value of maintaining some normalcy and distraction for the mental health benefits. Most sports are doing a surprisingly good job, but I don't know how college football is going to get past the number of canceled games, infected players and staff,  and the validity of any championship scenario where one conference has played 8 games, another has played 2 and another has played zero. 

This was a well thought-out and argued post.  And while I LOVE everything about college athletics, I am not so sure that they should be the ones we are asking to take on that responsibility.  Let the professional sports be the ones to take the risk since they have the protections of unions, visibility, and team investment.

 

[HANC]

I am just thinking that with all of the teams that are having growing numbers, cancelling games, combined with the many governors really ramping up the restrictions,  that somewhere along the line, football will be shut down.  I 1000% agree that the safest place for kids to be in in the facility.  Just becoming more and more concerned about the season being shut down if the numbers keep growing at this rate.  

*  the REAL concern is getting this under control, but this is a football thread, so I am talking from a football standpoint.

 

[Hilltop]

This was a well thought-out and argued post.  And while I LOVE everything about college athletics, I am not so sure that they should be the ones we are asking to take on that responsibility.  Let the professional sports be the ones to take the risk since they have the protections of unions, visibility, and team investment.

Why do we have to make decisions for college age adults?  They are playing by their free will.  They all have the option to opt out with no repercussions.  Those kids WANT to play.  Why should we, or anyone, tell them they can't?  

 

[J-MAGIC]

Estimates are between 5 and 10 times the confirmed number.  Using the minimum 5 times estimate, the current death rate is .12% and dropping.  

I'm not being an a$$h@le for pointing out the facts of the situation.  I'm not suggesting that people stop making the minor sacrifices- quite the contrary.  I am suggesting that we change our mental approach to the situation to match the reality of our current situation.

But you're not pointing out facts. You suggest that the reported numbers of cases are "five to ten times the confirmed number" without citation, and then ignore that almost every credible public health expert estimates something like 100,000 deaths attributable to COVID have gone unreported based on the nation's annual average fatality numbers. You're fitting the facts to say what you want them to say.

We all don't have to sit and stare at the walls of our homes and never leave for fear of the virus. If everyone is taking basic precautions then there is stuff we can do safely, and people should! But that also doesn't mean that doing whatever we want is fine or that taking those precautions or limiting some non-essential things is "living in fear". It's not. It's basic intelligence and empathy. And, to get back on topic, not being able to watch teenagers run into each other at high speeds for our entertainment for one year is ... pretty non-essential.

 

[Husker NoNo]

Why do we have to make decisions for college age adults?  They are playing by their free will.  They all have the option to opt out with no repercussions.  Those kids WANT to play.  Why should we, or anyone, tell them they can't?  

You are mixing arguments here friend...are they kids or adults?  (Just messing with you). 

I don't disagree that these students want to play and do have free will.  But the option to "opt-out" is never without consequence.  Players who opt out can be seen as selfish and not fully supporting the team-first mentality.   I FIRMLY believe that in many programs, Nebraska included, students could opt-out with little to no consequence...but I don't think that mindset is universal.  I love college athletics, but they simply do not have the same level of protections that professional athletes do.  Our distractions should be coming from the professional ranks this year.  Once we get this COVID crap under control, I will 100% go back to supporting college sports more than the millionaire cry-babies.