New AD or Head Coach

[Hilltop]

Riley's 2017 team crushed Illinois 28 -6, and Scott Frost's 2020 team lost to the same team in a blowout!

Ipso facto.....let's close this thread. 

2017 Illinois also went winless in the B1G and was starting a roster full of underclassmen.  It was Lovie Smith's reset...  Nebraska just played against many of the same players with 4 years of experience.  

 

[Ulty]

At this point, while I remain skeptical of this staff's ability to turn it around, I think we have little choice but to stay the course for another couple of seasons.  Not out of confidence in there being light at the end of the tunnel, but out of a true lack of options.  We are truly in a box.

This is where I am, too. I'm not happy about any of it, but I am simply resigned to it.

 

[knapplc]

I'm actually with you, but I think most doubters' contention is the bottom game could easily be 2018 or 2019. We quickly improved from the end of Riley's tenure, but losing "better" does get old 3 years in. It took one year to get to a point where we could stay within a score of Iowa. 2 years later, that's still where we are.

I do think this year was an improvement despite the end result.. 2018 we only had a shot because Ferentz decided to try and be cute for once and let us back in. Last year we were scrapping for a lot of the game and managed to make it close, but we were not the better team. This year, we outplayed them for the majority of the game in my opinion - we just have to get out of our own way.

This is what's galling to me. Iowa doesn't beat us, we lose to them. We beat ourselves with dumb penalties or bad snaps, poorly-run routes or lack of ball security. These are mistakes we should not be making three years in. 

 

[HuskerNation1]

Given the persistent discipline problems that I have seen for 10 years (spanning 3 coaching staffs), I do not think staff changes now will fix our problems.  These are structural issues that seem engrained in what is now a losing culture.  Moreover, staff changes not only mean disruption, but also come at significant monetary cost as well as time to transition to a new approach.  

At this point, while I remain skeptical of this staff's ability to turn it around, I think we have little choice but to stay the course for another couple of seasons.  Not out of confidence in there being light at the end of the tunnel, but out of a true lack of options.  We are truly in a box.

The only complaint I have with Moos is that he has put us in a box longer than any of us would have liked.  Frost's initial contract ran through 2024 I believe, and then he extended it two more years to 2026 in late 2019.  I am not sure why the rush to extend it as keeping it at 2024 for another year or two would not have a drastic effect on recruiting.  Thus, let's say in 2021 or 2022 that program leadership wanted to make a change after giving Frost 4 or 5 years. It will be more difficult to do so given the financials of the 2 extra years Frost is under contract. 

 

[Hilltop]

The only complaint I have with Moos is that he has put us in a box longer than any of us would have liked.  Frost's initial contract ran through 2024 I believe, and then he extended it two more years to 2026 in late 2019.  I am not sure why the rush to extend it as keeping it at 2024 for another year or two would not have a drastic effect on recruiting.  Thus, let's say in 2021 or 2022 that program leadership wanted to make a change after giving Frost 4 or 5 years. It will be more difficult to do so given the financials of the 2 extra years Frost is under contract. 

This is done virtually everywhere.  If you don't extend your coaches, it shows that you are considering making a change in the coming year or two.  This can have a very damaging effect on recruiting.  Who wants to agree to go play for a coach that might not be there?

 

[Ulty]

 We beat ourselves with dumb penalties or bad snaps, poorly-run routes or lack of ball security. These are mistakes we should not be making three years in. 

Since we are also talking about Pelini in a couple other threads...some of these same issues frustrated us during the Bo years as well. I remember thinking that Pelini under-achieved his way to 9 wins every year while we struggled with ball security, poor tackling, penalties, and lack of offensive identity. All these years later, it is the basic fundamentals of the game that still leave us scratching our heads, but the 9 annual wins has turned into 4 consecutive losing seasons.

I don't have answers for any of this. It all just makes me sad. 

 

[TheSker]

The only complaint I have with Moos is that he has put us in a box longer than any of us would have liked.  Frost's initial contract ran through 2024 I believe, and then he extended it two more years to 2026 in late 2019.  I am not sure why the rush to extend it as keeping it at 2024 for another year or two would not have a drastic effect on recruiting.  Thus, let's say in 2021 or 2022 that program leadership wanted to make a change after giving Frost 4 or 5 years. It will be more difficult to do so given the financials of the 2 extra years Frost is under contract. 

This is not just Moos.

Here are some names that are all on board in making sure there's a long term commitment to Frost......Moos, Cater, Green, Osborne.

Frost absolutely expected the team to be better record-wise at this point.  But the names mentioned above know why we're not, and they know the plan to get us there.

 

[Mavric]

The only complaint I have with Moos is that he has put us in a box longer than any of us would have liked.  Frost's initial contract ran through 2024 I believe, and then he extended it two more years to 2026 in late 2019.  I am not sure why the rush to extend it as keeping it at 2024 for another year or two would not have a drastic effect on recruiting.  Thus, let's say in 2021 or 2022 that program leadership wanted to make a change after giving Frost 4 or 5 years. It will be more difficult to do so given the financials of the 2 extra years Frost is under contract. 

Pretty sure it was basically going to happen anyway.  But there were two or three second-year coaches getting fired already so my guess is he wanted to make it emphatic that Frost wasn't going anywhere.  It was basically the same as giving him the standard extension he would have gotten after this year.

 

[HuskerNation1]

I put together some data to see how the program has done over the past 10 years, and I was interested to see the differences under Pelini, Riley and Frost.  A few things jump out at me looking at this data:

1.  2014 was the most points scored by far and the 2nd greatest positive point differential in the past decade.  This was also the year Pelini was fired.  

2.  The 2010 defense was by far the best we have seen in the past decade.  We were still in the BIG 12 but this was near the height of Pelinis success coming off the amazing 2009 defensive season.

3.  The 2017 and 2020 seasons (3rd years for Riley and Frost) have been by far the worst point differentials over the past decade at -10.6 and -12.  

4.  The 2015 season had a better point differential than the 2016 season despite only winning 5 games in 2015 and 9 games in 2016. This shows how winning some close games can make a huge difference.

5.  We have had only one winning season in the past 6 years which was Riley's 2nd year.





Year


Points Scored


Points Allowed


Differential


Wins


Losses


Win Percentage




2010


30.9


17.4


13.5


10


4


0.714




2011


29.2


23.4


5.8


9


4


0.692




2012


34.8


27.6


7.2


10


4


0.714




2013


31.9


24.8


7.1


9


4


0.692




2014


37.8


26.4


11.4


9


3


0.750




2015


32.8


27.8


5


5


7


0.417




2016


26.5


23.9


2.6


9


4


0.692




2017


25.8


36.4


-10.6


4


8


0.333




2018


30


31.2


-1.2


4


8


0.333




2019


28


27.8


0.2


5


7


0.417




2020


20.6


32.6


-12


1


4


0.200

 

[HuskerNation1]

This is done virtually everywhere.  If you don't extend your coaches, it shows that you are considering making a change in the coming year or two.  This can have a very damaging effect on recruiting.  Who wants to agree to go play for a coach that might not be there?

I agree that having a coach with an extra 2 to 4 years is common in many major programs to help with recruiting.  But this extension was done in 2019 and it was extended out 7 years....that is where it got excessive.  

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

2017 Illinois also went winless in the B1G and was starting a roster full of underclassmen.  It was Lovie Smith's reset...  Nebraska just played against many of the same players with 4 years of experience.  

I think you over-estimate my seriousness. There's not much to learn from these cherry-picked comparisons.

Although now that you mention it --- Illinois and Nebraska both sucked balls in 2017. And they still suck balls in 2020. But Illinois was clearly the better team this year.  There aren't any good excuses. 

Losing to Iowa by only 6 points doesn't really change things. Beating Purdue and Minnesota does. 

 

[Mavric]

3.  The 2017 and 2020 seasons (3rd years for Riley and Frost) have been by far the worst point differentials over the past decade at -10.6 and -12.  

Great look at that data.

Fortunately for Riley he had a non-conference schedule in 2017 to bring that average down (up?  closer to 0?).

 

[HuskerNation1]

Great look at that data.

Fortunately for Riley he had a non-conference schedule in 2017 to bring that average down (up?  closer to 0?).

Yes I think that is a fair point, but I also think had we played our non conference schedule this year we may have gotten blown out by Cincy and had a close game with SD State and thus a big win against Central Michigan would have been needed to decrease the current point differential.  But we also did not play Wisconsin who Frost has lost to by 16 and 17 points the prior 2 years and would have added to the point differential if the outcome was similar in 2020.  Perhaps Frosts Year 3 could be slightly better than Riley's year 3 was but it's still nothing to be excited about as both are by far the worst over the past decade.  

 

[Hilltop]

I think you over-estimate my seriousness. There's not much to learn from these cherry-picked comparisons.

Although now that you mention it --- Illinois and Nebraska both sucked balls in 2017. And they still suck balls in 2020. But Illinois was clearly the better team this year.  There aren't any good excuses. 

Losing to Iowa by only 6 points doesn't really change things. Beating Purdue and Minnesota does. 

Fair enough - my point is that we look like a different team.  Essentially, we are sucking in a different way that is much easier to correct.  We are currently losing due to mental mistakes and youth lack of experience.  In 2017, we were losing because our guys were getting man handled.  

 

[FrantzHardySwag]

Fair enough - my point is that we look like a different team.  Essentially, we are sucking in a different way that is much easier to correct.  We are currently losing due to mental mistakes and youth lack of experience.  In 2017, we were losing because our guys were getting man handled.  

I agree youth and mental mistakes are issues, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy to correct. We’ve seen the same thing for 3 seasons. Sure there is glimpses of hope, but I’m not sold that someday we are just gonna figure it out. I think Frost is here two more seasons regardless, he has his staff, he has his recruits - I guess we just hope everyweek is the week they put it together. I think it’s still an IF and not a WHEN.