Revised 2021 Schedule

Michigan will be hurting next year. Too many transfers and early departures, even from kids that may not get drafted. The QB situation may not be settled. They will be a very young with some 5th year guys that might finally get a start if they are not passed over for freshman. I would put that in the winnable column. New coaching staff on D too.

 
runningblind said:
The point was they have let me down every year under Frost,  by 3-5 wins of where I thought they should be. We thought the O line looked promising last year, Omar Manning coming in, the Blackshirts seem much improved in a weird year with a weak back end of the schedule, yada yada yada.  Where did that end up? My thought is that they simply have to exceed expectations at prediction of 3-9 or I'll just mail in my fandom after that point.

I can see that 5-7 seems fairly likely:

Illinois - W or L

Buffalo - W

OU - L

MSU - W or L

NW - W or L

Michigan- L

Minnesota - W or L

Purdue - W or L

OSU - L

SELA - W

Wisconsin - L

Iowa - L

However, what year have they beaten anyone they weren’t supposed to? None besides 2016 MSU under Riley, hasn't happened under Frost once. How many years do they lose to someone they shouldn't? Every year.  Are you ready to say they'll beat Wisconsin or Iowa? Me neither. I see 2 guaranteed wins on that schedule.  3-9, 4-8 isn't far off when you look at this objectively as you say, closer than 7-5 or 8-4 when I go game by game.  I really get what you're saying but what on earth gives you reason to trust this team at all?

I want them to succeed as bad as anyone but they have flat out underperformed for a decade now and it's silly to expect otherwise until they prove it with wins.  I expect as much when the preseason stuff comes out, no one will be trusting this team much wins and losses wise, it's just a fact right now.
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I would say Iowa is toss up with a slight lean towards Iowa based on the close games over the past 3 seasons, they haven't blown NU out under Frost. That being said, it is one thing to say that the Huskers haven't lived up to expectations and another to lower their floor and predict a regression. Just because you may have predicted 7 or 8 wins in the past and they only got to 5, in a 12 game schedule, doesn't mean you should factor in the same 2-3 win decline in your prediction when you have already dropped your expectation to 5 wins. What you have done is adjusted your expectation to their recent performance level, what signs do you see that they will regress to a 3-9 team?

 
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If you have Illinois as a W or L then Buffalo absolutely should also be a W or L. The Bulls are a better team by every objective measure than Illinois was last year and in my opinion have a better head coach. 

 
caveman99 said:
I would say Iowa is toss up with a slight lean towards Iowa based on the close games over the past 3 seasons, they haven't blown NU out under Frost. That being said, it is one thing to say that the Huskers haven't lived up to expectations and another to lower their floor and predict a regression. Just because you may have predicted 7 or 8 wins in the past and they only got to 5, in a 12 game schedule, doesn't mean you should factor in the same 2-3 win decline in your prediction when you have already dropped your expectation to 5 wins. What you have done is adjusted your expectation to their recent performance level, what signs do you see that they will regress to a 3-9 team?
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Schedule is a bit harder this year,  and the lack of emphasis on special teams if I'm honest.  That's a recipe for losing close games and I see a lot of toss ups there. That and our turnover history have me pessimistic.

seaofred92 said:
If you have Illinois as a W or L then Buffalo absolutely should also be a W or L. The Bulls are a better team by every objective measure than Illinois was last year and in my opinion have a better head coach. 
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Fair enough, add that as a toss up too. They lost that stud RB though right?

 
runningblind said:
Schedule is a bit harder this year,  and the lack of emphasis on special teams if I'm honest.  That's a recipe for losing close games and I see a lot of toss ups there. That and our turnover history have me pessimistic.

Fair enough, add that as a toss up too. They lost that stud RB though right?
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yes thankfully he's gone

 
I think we just need to settle on a rough threshold for what's considered a toss up - at this stage in the offseason, it's pretty wide for me. If you think we have a 30% chance to beat Iowa, is that L or W/L? Same for W - I'm like 80% confident we beat Purdue. Is that enough for a W, or is it still a tossup for people?

runningblind said:
Fair enough, add that as a toss up too. They lost that stud RB though right?
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Patterson is gone, but also to be fair he had all-time great games against 2 terrible defenses. He also went 20/73 against Miami (OH) and 18/47 against Ball State, so he may not have been as good as running for 700 yards and 12 TDs in two games would imply. The backup isn't a scrub either and he's back, but even if it was Patterson I'd be less worried about him than a couple of the Big Ten backs.

 
Schedule and 2020 opponent records

08/28     @ Illinois     2-6
09/11     Buffalo     6-1
09/18     @ Oklahoma     9-2
09/25     @ Michigan St.     2-5
10/02     Northwestern     7-2
10/09     Michigan     2-4
10/16     @ Minnesota     3-4
10/30     Purdue         2-4
11/06     Ohio St.     7-1
11/13     SE Louisiana     0-0 (8-5 prior season)
11/20     @ Wisconsin     4-3
11/26     Iowa         6-2

7 games are neck and neck opportunities for wins
2 games are no chance
3 games favor the opponents

7 out of 12 games at home (Husker edge)
6 out of 8 games at home (leg stretch) - Husker edge

Winning 6 games is highly feasible.  A squad that is returning so many starters, including QB, and returning spot players with experience.  And the league was down with some of the usual powerhouses. 

When you look at it all, Winning 5 or less would be failure.  Winning more than 6 a pleasant surprise.  You can't tell me that in year 4, with all this in your favor, that you cannot win half your games.  But we shall see.

 
seaofred92 said:
If you have Illinois as a W or L then Buffalo absolutely should also be a W or L. The Bulls are a better team by every objective measure than Illinois was last year and in my opinion have a better head coach. 
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Not sure I agree.  The Buffalo schedule where they went 6-1 included no power 5 opponents, while Illinois' schedule was nothing but Big Ten teams.  Pretty hard to say the bolded.  Now, they aren't a team we can take lightly.  But, pretty difficult to make the claim you made here.  The non-P5 teams they beat, went a combined 15-22. 7 of those wins were Marshall in their bowl game.  So, the other 5 wins had a combined 8 wins.

Illinois' schedule was all Big Ten and in three of their losses were to ranked teams.  

 
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BigRedBuster said:
Not sure I agree.  The Buffalo schedule where they went 6-1 included no power 5 opponents, while Illinois' schedule was nothing but Big Ten teams.  Pretty hard to say the bolded.  Now, they aren't a team we can take lightly.  But, pretty difficult to make the claim you made here.
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Actually, it's really easy to do because when you look at the objective measures I'm referring to and not just get lazy talking about being "non P-5" you'll see its true:

SP+: Buffalo 50th Illinois 88th

F+: Buffalo 17th (!) Illinois 102

Sagarin: Buffalo 30th Illinois 104

247 Sports: Buffalo T30 Illinois NR

ESPN FPI: Buffalo 40 Illinois 81

 
seaofred92 said:
Actually, it's really easy to do because when you look at the objective measures I'm referring to and not just get lazy talking about being "non P-5" you'll see its true:

SP+: Buffalo 50th Illinois 88th

F+: Buffalo 17th (!) Illinois 102

Sagarin: Buffalo 30th Illinois 104

247 Sports: Buffalo T30 Illinois NR

ESPN FPI: Buffalo 40 Illinois 81
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All that does is shows how difficult it is to compare two teams with such complete opposite strength of schedules.

 
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