Gut Check Poll - Will Husker go to a Bowl Game in 2021

[BigRedBuster]

The individual games the past few years against Iowa were close but when the rubber hit the road in all three games Iowa turned their play up a notch while we wilted and lost. They were also a significantly better team than Nebraska outside of the individual games against NU. To beat them we are going to need to either be better than we're currently expected to be or play very, very well. Reasonable minds can disagree, but to me that qualifies as a likely loss. Same with Wisconsin. Those teams are currently better than us, and until we show we can play with them for four quarters I'm not calling those games winnable or toss-ups. 

Up till now, they have been better and proven it on the field.  To the bolded, what prediction are you using here?  I get the feeling that most people believe we will be better than we have been the last couple years.  If we are, and these two teams stay the same, it would mean the game should be a toss up at worst.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

what fanbase are you talking about? they could win every game and the nc and you'd still have people b!^@hing they didnt win pretty enough or by enough.

Don't get me wrong. I grew up with that fanbase. But we've taken to celebrating ugly victories against Northwestern and Purdue and I think we're currently starving for a few of those and at least one legitimate upset. 

 

[caveman99]

The individual games the past few years against Iowa were close but when the rubber hit the road in all three games Iowa turned their play up a notch while we wilted and lost. They were also a significantly better team than Nebraska outside of the individual games against NU. To beat them we are going to need to either be better than we're currently expected to be or play very, very well. Reasonable minds can disagree, but to me that qualifies as a likely loss. Same with Wisconsin. Those teams are currently better than us, and until we show we can play with them for four quarters I'm not calling those games winnable or toss-ups. 

So losing on a last second FG doesn't count as playing with them for 4 quarters?

 

[J-MAGIC]

So losing on a last second FG doesn't count as playing with them for 4 quarters?

Hanging close and then getting steamrolled in every important moment down the stretch is not playing a four-quarter game.

 

[deedsker]

Iowa has a habit of sitting on leads. Punt from the opponents 40, run on 1st and 2nd downs, and limit the mistakes. They took the lead early and shut down there offensive play calling until it mattered in the 4th quarter. They finally gave up points to us and were forced to turn on the machine again. Their offense had no issue putting up the necessary points in the 4th quarter to win while we failed to be creative or dominate with our final possession.

Iowa only scored 3 points off Nebraska turnovers, and botched a short field on another turnover. Good special teams is also a big differentiator over the last few years as Iowa/Wisconsin have been solid to good and Nebraska has been poor to bad.

 

[Husker in WI]

Hanging close and then getting steamrolled in every important moment down the stretch is not playing a four-quarter game.

It's 4 quarters if you round up!

 

[caveman99]

Hanging close and then getting steamrolled in every important moment down the stretch is not playing a four-quarter game.

I guess you and I watched completely different games against Iowa the past 3 seasons then. In 2018 NU outscored Iowa 15-3 in the 4th quarter, total yards gained were in Iowa's favor by only 19 yards (400-419), and it took a FG as time expired for Iowa to win. If Iowa doesn't make that FG, all momentum was on NU's side and I firmly believe OT would have went our way. In 2019 NU outgained Iowa by 40 yards (324-284), scored 14 unanswered in the 3rd quarter to tie the game and both teams played to a stalemate in the 4th until Iowa kicked a game winning long 48 yard FG with :01 left to win. Last year NU outgained Iowa by 16 yards (338-322), the score was tied after 3 quarters, Iowa kicked two FG's in the 4th (the last one coming with 8:21 left) to go up 6 points, and NU had a couple of drives past mid field in the 4th and looked like they had a legit chance to win until a missed block gave a free unseen shot on 2AM; last year's game was in doubt right up to the end and I am betting Iowa fans felt the same way until that last hit/fumble on 2AM. 

 

[BigRedBuster]

Hanging close and then getting steamrolled in every important moment down the stretch is not playing a four-quarter game.

Losing on a last second 48 yard field goal is getting steam rolled?

 

[J-MAGIC]

Up till now, they have been better and proven it on the field.  To the bolded, what prediction are you using here?  I get the feeling that most people believe we will be better than we have been the last couple years.  If we are, and these two teams stay the same, it would mean the game should be a toss up at worst.

Husker fans consistently underrate Wisconsin and Iowa. Both are considered to be top 15-20ish teams by the national media while we're considered a 30-40ish team. ESPN's FPI would favor Iowa by 11.2 points on a neutral field. They shouldn't be blowouts and preseason projections are meaningless once the games start, but they're all we have right now, so I don't get why saying we're probably going to lose to two top-15 teams should be controversial.

 

[Ulty]

I'm as disillusioned and pessimistic as anyone after 4 straight losing seasons and never rising to the hype, but the truth is we have rarely gotten steamrolled. A large part of the frustration is that we have had so many close losses every year where we just couldn't close the deal. 12 of our 20 losses under Frost have been by 8 points or less. Those are all games that could have been decided by a single play. 

It's not a matter of getting "steamrolled" by Iowa or Wisconsin or any of the other crappy teams that we should have beaten. It's about fixing mistakes and getting our $h!t together.  

 

[BigRedBuster]

Husker fans consistently underrate Wisconsin and Iowa. Both are considered to be top 15-20ish teams by the national media while we're considered a 30-40ish team. ESPN's FPI would favor Iowa by 11.2 points on a neutral field. They shouldn't be blowouts and preseason projections are meaningless once the games start, but they're all we have right now, so I don't get why saying we're probably going to lose to two top-15 teams should be controversial.

And, yet we've played right with Iowa, and Wisconsin to a lessor extent in the last few years.

 

[J-MAGIC]

I guess you and I watched completely different games against Iowa the past 3 seasons then. In 2018 NU outscored Iowa 15-3 in the 4th quarter, total yards gained were in Iowa's favor by only 19 yards (400-419), and it took a FG as time expired for Iowa to win. If Iowa doesn't make that FG, all momentum was on NU's side and I firmly believe OT would have went our way. In 2019 NU outgained Iowa by 40 yards (324-284), scored 14 unanswered in the 3rd quarter to tie the game and both teams played to a stalemate in the 4th until Iowa kicked a game winning long 48 yard FG with :01 left to win. Last year NU outgained Iowa by 16 yards (338-322), the score was tied after 3 quarters, Iowa kicked two FG's in the 4th (the last one coming with 8:21 left) to go up 6 points, and NU had a couple of drives past mid field in the 4th and looked like they had a legit chance to win until a missed block gave a free unseen shot on 2AM; last year's game was in doubt right up to the end and I am betting Iowa fans felt the same way until that last hit/fumble on 2AM. 

2018: Game tied with three minutes and change left. Give up a big return and Iowa runs the ball five times and completes one pass to get in field goal range.

2019: Tie the game at the end of the third. Proceed to not score on our final five drives. Last drive of regulation give up a 22 yard pass on third and 10 and then another 22 yard pass on the next play to let Iowa in field goal range.

2020: Take the lead first drive of the third quarter. Do not score again on our remaining four drives. Defense gets a great stop and then we give up a blindside strip sack to end the game.

We fought hard and played well! That's awesome. But when Iowa needed to make plays to win each game against us they did, because they were ***the better team***

 

[J-MAGIC]

I'm as disillusioned and pessimistic as anyone after 4 straight losing seasons and never rising to the hype, but the truth is we have rarely gotten steamrolled. A large part of the frustration is that we have had so many close losses every year where we just couldn't close the deal. 12 of our 20 losses under Frost have been by 8 points or less. Those are all games that could have been decided by a single play. 

It's not a matter of getting "steamrolled" by Iowa or Wisconsin or any of the other crappy teams that we should have beaten. It's about fixing mistakes and getting our $h!t together.  

 "Steamrolled" was a poor choice of words, but I didn't mean it to suggest that we lost by a large margin. My post was saying that when stuff got serious in each game we've played against Iowa or Wisconsin, they executed and made winning plays and we didn't. 

 

[Mavric]

2018: Game tied with three minutes and change left. Give up a big return and Iowa runs the ball five times and completes one pass to get in field goal range.

Had to convert 3rd & 1 and 4th & 8 and averaged about 5 yards per play on that drive.  Credit them for making the plays but that's hardly just "steamrolling" down the field on us.  You make it sound like they could just score at will.

2019: Tie the game at the end of the third. Proceed to not score on our final five drives. Last drive of regulation give up a 22 yard pass on third and 10 and then another 22 yard pass on the next play to let Iowa in field goal range.

For some reason you highlight that we didn't score on our final five drives but don't point out that Iowa only got three first downs in the entire second half.  Saying they weren't trying is a pretty lame way to try to prove your point.

2020: Take the lead first drive of the third quarter. Do not score again on our remaining four drives. Defense gets a great stop and then we give up a blindside strip sack to end the game.

We fought hard and played well! That's awesome. But when Iowa needed to make plays to win each game against us they did, because they were ***the better team***

Were they the better team?  Probably.  We out-yarded them overall.  We had a better conversion rate on 3rd down.  We had more passing yards and a better yards per attempt.  We had more rushing yards and a better yards per attempt.  I don't know why you're insisting on exaggerating what Iowa did and deflect away from what we did.  

They have really only been the better team because they've made fewer mistakes.  Which is a big part of winning football games.  But they aren't nearly as much better as you're trying to make them out to be.

 

[caveman99]

2018: Game tied with three minutes and change left. Give up a big return and Iowa runs the ball five times and completes one pass to get in field goal range.

2019: Tie the game at the end of the third. Proceed to not score on our final five drives. Last drive of regulation give up a 22 yard pass on third and 10 and then another 22 yard pass on the next play to let Iowa in field goal range.

2020: Take the lead first drive of the third quarter. Do not score again on our remaining four drives. Defense gets a great stop and then we give up a blindside strip sack to end the game.

We fought hard and played well! That's awesome. But when Iowa needed to make plays to win each game against us they did, because they were ***the better team***

That isn't getting "steamrolled." Getting steamrolled means that you weren't competitive, which NU has been with Iowa under Frost. You categorized this a solid L and not a toss up, but the past evidence points to this game being a toss up or Iowa being a slight favorite.