Who should our next HC be?

[Red Silk Smoking Jacket]

I've always backed up my claims with data/statistics/evidence, or past history. You just choose to say it's irrelevant or meaningless to suit your purpose. As far as your questions, the only one who comes to mind is Hugh Freeze at Ole Miss, although we know now that he did it illegally. But again, you're missing the point. If we don't get a big name like Meyer or Deion - and we're not - we need someone who will be capable of recruiting top classes. Not overnight, but in the years that follow. Guys like Klieman, Campbell, and Leipold have not shown that they're capable of doing that. Yeah I know people say it's harder to recruit to their current spots, but moving to Lincoln isn't suddenly going to make any of them a better recruiter, despite our resources.

Agree with your overall position here, obviously, but what makes you so sure about the bold? I've seen zero to indicate this is true whatsoever. I mean, other than whatever flavor of the day is being thrown around on fan boards like this. Those two names were being thrown around by the national media as much as any other name, probably more, in the beginning of the search process and nothing has changed since then.

 

[lo country]

Yeah...sooooo...I'm gonna have to go ahead and sort of...disagree with you here, Mav.

That's not true at all. See Tennessee, see Georgia, see Alabama, and on and on and on. It literally is the other way around. You HAVE to have the players first. Then you can start to have success on the field.

Sure, nice little programs can be built purely on player development, but not elite programs. And sure, elite recruiting doesn't necessarily equal great results on the field. But by and large, you have to figure out a way to get the talent first and hope your coaches can develop to be successful. 

Here is a good article on Tennessee and recruiting.  The article does a great job IMHO, representing what it takes to win. Author uses conference rankings, nit national as a predictor of success.  Says top 4-5 in conference equals success. Using the same years as the article (2017-2022) here are NU's conference recruit rankings:

2017-5

2018-4

2019-4

2020-4

2021-5

2022-10

In a nutshell, NU woefully underperformed each and every year under Frost.  Dude was complete trash.  

The point here is that national recruiting class rankings is a fool’s gold. It offers the veneer of success, while hiding true success or failure, or mediocrity. The real measure of recruiting class success is found in conference rankings.

If the Tennessee Volunteers are going to run it back to the 1990s, and compete for championships again, the tell-tale sign will be how their in-conference recruiting classes add up. Having a top-15 class nationally looks good, but it doesn’t do you any good if you’re getting the seventh-best talent class in your conference.

What difference does it make that you are 15th and NC State is 20th? What difference does it make if your class is 12th nationally, you outrank the entire Pac-12 North, but there are six teams ahead of you in your own conference? Let me help you. It doesn’t.

https://saturdayblitz.com/2022/07/12/tennessee-football-improved-recruiting-crystal-key/2/

 

[mwj98]

Year 2 for Beilema. Which makes it even more impressive. My concern with Mickey is that he hasn’t led a successful program before. Beilema had a lot of success at Wisconsin and experience of coaching in the SEC, as well. 

Bielema was a coordinator before being handpicked by Alvarez. He didn't lead a successful program prior to that.

 

[Hagg]

I like Mickey Joseph's engagement during the game, and with the players, and that those players seem to buy into the coaching staff.  But I do wonder if that staff can elevate the team over time to what we expect, playing level and recruiting.  And if he can, just how much time?  Another three or four years to age out the current players (transfer portal notwithstanding)?  Next year (is that realistic)? 

And just how long would it take an Urban Meyer or other big or upcoming name to do the same thing? 

 

[ColoradoHusk]

Bielema was a d coordinator before being handpicked by Alvarez. He didn't lead a successful program prior to that. 

My point with Bielema is that he didn’t need to “build” a program without prior head coaching experience. He took over a successful program at Wisky, and maintained it. He tried to build a program at Arkansas and failed, but used that experience and knows what it takes to build a decent program in the Big Ten.

Like it or not, the Nebraska job is a rebuild, that’s why I would prefer a coach who has ran a program before. 

 

[Red Silk Smoking Jacket]

Here is a good article on Tennessee and recruiting.  The article does a great job IMHO, representing what it takes to win. Author uses conference rankings, nit national as a predictor of success.  Says top 4-5 in conference equals success. Using the same years as the article (2017-2022) here are NU's conference recruit rankings:

2017-5

2018-4

2019-4

2020-4

2021-5

2022-10

In a nutshell, NU woefully underperformed each and every year under Frost.  Dude was complete trash.  

The point here is that national recruiting class rankings is a fool’s gold. It offers the veneer of success, while hiding true success or failure, or mediocrity. The real measure of recruiting class success is found in conference rankings.

If the Tennessee Volunteers are going to run it back to the 1990s, and compete for championships again, the tell-tale sign will be how their in-conference recruiting classes add up. Having a top-15 class nationally looks good, but it doesn’t do you any good if you’re getting the seventh-best talent class in your conference.

What difference does it make that you are 15th and NC State is 20th? What difference does it make if your class is 12th nationally, you outrank the entire Pac-12 North, but there are six teams ahead of you in your own conference? Let me help you. It doesn’t.

https://saturdayblitz.com/2022/07/12/tennessee-football-improved-recruiting-crystal-key/2/

Good article, but all it really proves is that Tennessee is in a tough conference. Yeah, you have to win your conference first (both in recruiting and on the field) before you can worry about nationally. Not seeing how this has anything to do with my point that elite programs generally have elite recruiting classes? Or that there are some coaches who could bring in elite recruiting classes before being successful on the field?

 

[Red Silk Smoking Jacket]

Bielema was a coordinator before being handpicked by Alvarez. He didn't lead a successful program prior to that.

You can say that about almost literally every coach on the planet. They were all coordinators at some point before becoming head coaches. What's your point here?

 

[lo country]

Good article, but all it really proves is that Tennessee is in a tough conference. Yeah, you have to win your conference first (both in recruiting and on the field) before you can worry about nationally. Not seeing how this has anything to do with my point that elite programs generally have elite recruiting classes? Or that there are some coaches who could bring in elite recruiting classes before being successful on the field?

They are elite in both national and conference rankings.  My point is that rankings alone won't get it.  NU, under Frost, recruited well enough to win the West every year.  He didn't.  That's coaching.  Or in his case, an extreme lack of.  If NU starts to win, we will start to get better ranked classes, or buy them like A&M.  We have several disadvantages ie location, multiple loosing seasons, no bowls in 6 years (potentially) so we will need to get a coach who can either be a grand slam recruiter ie Urb, Deion, or one who has a LONG history of being a hell of a developer of talent.  We don't need another snake oil salesman who gets players, but can't develop them.  We swing and missed on a guy with 2 years as a HC....And it painfully showed.  

 

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

Agree with your overall position here, obviously, but what makes you so sure about the bold? I've seen zero to indicate this is true whatsoever. I mean, other than whatever flavor of the day is being thrown around on fan boards like this. Those two names were being thrown around by the national media as much as any other name, probably more, in the beginning of the search process and nothing has changed since then.

Just a hunch. I just don't think Trev will reach out due to the backlash he'd receive from the more traditional fans. Plus they'd cost a pretty penny and I don't think he wants to spend that much. 

 

[Mavric]

Yeah...sooooo...I'm gonna have to go ahead and sort of...disagree with you here, Mav.

That's not true at all. See Tennessee, see Georgia, see Alabama, and on and on and on. It literally is the other way around. You HAVE to have the players first. Then you can start to have success on the field.

Sure, nice little programs can be built purely on player development, but not elite programs. And sure, elite recruiting doesn't necessarily equal great results on the field. But by and large, you have to figure out a way to get the talent first and hope your coaches can develop to be successful. 

Nick Saban took over Alabama in 2007.  They went 12-2 in his second year and 14-0 in his third.  Their last four recruiting classes when he took over were #18, #17, #16, and #17.  He built that success by out-performing the talent that he had.  Although he also had a resume that he already had a national championship so that helped him recruit better more quickly than others could.

Tennessee's last four recruiting classes are #13, #11, #21 and #15.  That's not bad but they are significantly out-performing their recruiting rankings.  Interesting note for those in the "they should be seeing better recruits because of their success" crowd, they are currently #14 in the class rankings - no better than they have been.

Georgia has always recruited fairly well because they are in a talent-rich state.  But their last four classes when Kirby took over were #8, #8, #5 and #11.  Their last three classes have been #3, #3 and #2.  They've gotten better recruits after they started winning more.

 

[PasstheDamnBallGuy]

When someone says you have to win to be able to recruit, not the other way around, there's an argument. Period.

Maybe @Maverick didn't really mean what he said, but that's just factually incorrect on all levels. Sure, you can win and then build your recruiting. And just because you have good recruiting, it doesn't necessarily mean you'll be successful. But to say you have to win first to get recruits is just wrong.

Urban, Deion, Petersen and maybe a couple others, would bring in top tier recruiting classes instantly, despite NU sucking for over a decade. Hell, Frost was able to get us top-25 recruiting classes pretty steadily despite us sucking. And he's no Urban, Deion, or Petersen when it comes to that. Not even close.

Now, if we're eliminating those guys (not sure why we would), then you can pivot to an argument for guys like Rhule, Leipold, etc who can hope to improve recruiting by building a winning program, i.e. get a guy where "recruiting success follows on-field success."

Thats a long post to not admit your examples were wrong. The original thread that you replied to was about why Leipold isnt recruiting well yet. And the point was the coaches have to have success then recruit well. Urban Meyer had on field success and then joined a school that was already getting top 10 classes before getting good recruiting rankings. I'm not against us hiring Deion, but he is an outlier. He really is just a crazy recruiter but he is a 1 of 1. Petersen's best class was 15th well into his tenure at Washington after a lot of on field success. 

Yes you are definitely right that a name like Deion or Urban could come in and get a good class right away, I dont think that works with many other coaches if any. Petersen I dont think kids would know anything about at this point i really doubt he gets much of a bump over anyone else.

Adding on another defense of Leipold recruiting, even a championship winning coach with top 5 classes under his belt could not recruit at Kansas.

 

[TGHusker]

We’ll Gundy and Saban both lost yesterday. I guess we need to strike their names off of our list. Terrible coaches for sure

I think Campbell may be the only one I’m striking off my list. All the others are still in play IMHO

 

[huskerpower22]

I like Mickey Joseph's engagement during the game, and with the players, and that those players seem to buy into the coaching staff.  But I do wonder if that staff can elevate the team over time to what we expect, playing level and recruiting.  And if he can, just how much time?  Another three or four years to age out the current players (transfer portal notwithstanding)?  Next year (is that realistic)? 

And just how long would it take an Urban Meyer or other big or upcoming name to do the same thing? 

Hypothetical if Mickey is retained he will overhaul the staff, but I think will be able to keep most of the kids on the roster who are coming back. I heard him talk in an interview a week or so ago about recruiting and developing being the lifeblood of a program over the X's and O's, so guessing he will surround himself with elite recruiters and developers of young men. By elite recruiters, its not always about Rival rankings. Justin Jefferson from the Vikings was a 2* when Mickey recruited him to LSU. Its about identifying talent and developing it. Some people on this board don't like to hear that. Coming from a championship team at LSU in 2019, I would not be at all surprised if he brings back some coaches from that staff and other high level coaches across the country to join the staff. I have no doubts Busch would stay on in some capacity and guessing Applewhite as well. I think Trev would open the checkbook for Mickey to bring in the best coaches to work with him. 

 

[Red Silk Smoking Jacket]

Just a hunch.

Well fine, but that's just like, your opinion man 

I just don't think Trev will reach out due to the backlash he'd receive from the more traditional fans.

Backlash from traditional fans? That's a minor segment. Seemed to me that Urban was the run-away fan favorite when he was in town for the OU game. And again, Deion was getting as much or more love from the national media along with a large segment of the fanbase on social media, and even here to some extent. Just because a few outspoken people on this board don't want coach X for whatever reason, don't be fooled into thinking that's the real world norm outside of here. Plus, Trev already said he wasn't going to necessarily hire someone who wins the podium.

Plus they'd cost a pretty penny and I don't think he wants to spend that much.

Urban would cost a pretty penny. Deion currently makes $300K per year plus performance bonuses and he donates half of that back to the school for upgrades. Deion would probably be the least expensive option we could hire by a lot. He's not about the money. Plus, again, Trev said resources wouldn't be a factor in hiring the next coach so I don't really think price tag is relevant.

As far as I'm concerned, they're both still on the table until I hear otherwise.

 

[Red Silk Smoking Jacket]

They are elite in both national and conference rankings.  My point is that rankings alone won't get it.  NU, under Frost, recruited well enough to win the West every year.  He didn't.  That's coaching.  Or in his case, an extreme lack of.  If NU starts to win, we will start to get better ranked classes, or buy them like A&M.  We have several disadvantages ie location, multiple loosing seasons, no bowls in 6 years (potentially) so we will need to get a coach who can either be a grand slam recruiter ie Urb, Deion, or one who has a LONG history of being a hell of a developer of talent.  We don't need another snake oil salesman who gets players, but can't develop them.  We swing and missed on a guy with 2 years as a HC....And it painfully showed.  

Yeah, I've been making all those same points. So, we're in agreement.