Economy

teachercd said:
And here comes the boom!

Get some BOIL today.
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https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/nvidia-earnings-stock-price/card/nvidia-s-earnings-are-hours-away-here-s-what-to-expect--WXSUk0PEGSZhQjUCeXi3

Everybody is talking about Nvidia—and some investors are getting worried. Later today, Nvidia reports results in what’s likely to be the most closely watched report in the company’s three decade history.
With the chip maker’s shares up nearly 50% this year, expectations are certainly high.
Wall Street analysts expect Nvidia to report January quarter revenue of $20.4 billion—up nearly 240% year over year—with adjusted earnings per share of $4.59.
Nvidia’s outlook for the current quarter will be just as closely watched. Analysts currently estimate April quarter revenue of $22.2 billion with earnings per share of $5.02. That would represent growth of up 208% and up 361%, respectively, from a year ago.
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To the degree, the numbers are disappointing today it will likely be because of supply constraints. That’s not a long-term negative—eventually supply will come on line.
Nvidia’s next major next-generation AI chip, the B100, will likely drive another wave of demand when it comes out in the coming quarters. The “upcoming Blackwell architecture will drive another step up in performance, while ASPs [pricing] will increase as well,” Baird analyst Tristan Gerra wrote on Tuesday.
It’s possible some customers decide to wait for the B100, creating a short-term lull in Nvidia’s results, but that’s still demand that will eventually convert to Nvidia revenue.
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teachercd said:
Might be able to get NVDA "cheap" today and wait it out.

I think the expectations are so high that it will be impossible to meet them.
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Yep

So, here’s the playbook given the circumstances: With the recent big rally in Nvidia’s stock, it could drop on strong numbers or trade higher. Frankly, it’s unpredictable. No one can predict every 10% up or down move in a stock.
Instead of trying to predict the instant reaction to the numbers, it may be wiser to react to the volatility afterwards. If there is a significant selloff, buy more. If the stock takes off, pare back the position. Investors are better served to ignore short-term noise and focus on Nvidia’s potential.
Keep the eye on the long-term prize. It’s best to stick to fundamental convictions and not be scared out of a long-term winner.
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teachercd said:
It it not really moving like I thought it would (once again, me being wrong)

SMCI might be recovering too.  

Stupid work getting in the way of dicking around with the market all day!
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Traders that actually move the market all made their moves the last couple of days.  Now, they are just waiting for the report.

 
teachercd said:
Might be able to get NVDA "cheap" today and wait it out.

I think the expectations are so high that it will be impossible to meet them.
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I think the best option play would be a straddle.  Thinking it will move big one way or the other which the straddle covers.   
 

If someone were buying, I think you’re right.  Even if it gets crushed today, it will be above that bottom number by Q4 probably and good for the longer run.  At least for a year when you can sell for long term capital gains taxes.   I’m long nvda for the long term as I think it’s positioned well.  
 

someone smart once told me, you don’t have to necessarily pick the AI stock winners, just pick the chip makers just about ALL of them rely on.  

 
teachercd said:
Might be able to get NVDA "cheap" today and wait it out.

I think the expectations are so high that it will be impossible to meet them.
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One thing that does tend to happen though going into earnings day…if the stock is down the week of earnings, it’s amazing how often the report is good and the stock pops after earnings.   
When the stock runs up going into earnings, it seems like the stock either falls after earnings or is stagnant because the earnings were already priced in.   I take the drop in NVDA this week so far as a good sign.   

 
Archy1221 said:
One thing that does tend to happen though going into earnings day…if the stock is down the week of earnings, it’s amazing how often the report is good and the stock pops after earnings.   
When the stock runs up going into earnings, it seems like the stock either falls after earnings or is stagnant because the earnings were already priced in.   I take the drop in NVDA this week so far as a good sign.   
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I went ahead and bought more just now.  It's a long term hold for me, for the time being so, I'll hopefully take advantage of the current dip.

 
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