The problem with predicting the upcoming season is, we don't know from game to game - sometimes half to half or quarter to quarter - which Husker team will show up. There isn't a single team on this schedule we can sleep on. We've seen what happens when Husker teams get all big in their heads thinking they've won the game by walking onto the field (ISU 2009, Texas 2010, Washington 2.0, 2010, Northwestern, 2011 and nearly Fresno State 2011).
Under Bo these Husker teams seem to consistently underestimate their opponent. It's happened too often, too consistently to think this problem will magically disappear this year. If so, great. But I certainly don't expect it.
With that, here's my all-too-early prediction for 2012:
Southern Miss - Our opener, against a team that finished 12-2 and won their bowl game (Hawaii Bowl vs. Nevada). IMO we stand a very good chance of losing this game. We tend to start slowly out of the gate, and last year's finish doesn't bode well for this year's opener. There is zero reason to believe we'll dominate this team, and more reasons to think we'll be in a four-quarter battle than not. This is the game where Rex's Senior Leadership and Martinez' two years as a starter will HAVE TO show up. Tossup.
@ UCLA - I give this a 50/50 chance of winning or losing. This is not an untalented UCLA team. While they will be retooling under Jim Mora, Mora isn't a first-time Head Coach. He knows how to prepare teams and I think he'll have the Bruins ready to play. Prince is a pocket passer, so this could bode well, but will Bo blitz the guy? He seems to hate blitzing. We'll see. Tossup.
Arkansas St. - This figures to be a very different Arkie State team than we faced in 2010 when we won the Sun Belt Championship. Yet another new coach, Gus Malzahn, heads the Wolfpack, and any old film we may have will be worthless. This was a 10-3 club last year, but they played an exceedingly weak schedule. Still, with our propensity to blow off opponents, this is hardly a guaranteed win. Just a likely Win.
Idaho State - Another week, another new head coach. The easiest game on our schedule, and the most likely win. Sure, it's a possible trap game, but this opponent will not trap us - we'll have to trap ourselves. Even if we're unprepared, we'll beat these guys. Win.
Wisconsin - No Russell Wilson, but Montee Ball and their O Line returns, meaning we're going to be battling in the trenches all game against a team that has more than proven the ability to reload. Further, we have more than proven that we are NOT solid along either line, ever since the departure of Suh. Their latest Merc QB is a pocket-passer, which bodes well. It's at home, so that bodes well. But their strength is our weakness, and that most definitely does not bode well. I can't predict a win here. Tossup.
@ Ohio State - The fifth out of six teams with a new head coach, but this one's different. Urban Meyer brings his wealth of coaching acumen to C-Bus and this does not look like a win. Solid Coach. Mobile Quarterback. Night game, on the road, at The Shoe. A team that is thirsty for vengeance after the Comeback of 2011. Yeah, this is a loss. I would love to be proven wrong, but... I've watched too many Husker games of late to think we'll win this one. Loss.
@ Northwestern - Wouldn't it be great if simply wanting to avenge a loss meant a win for Nebraska? I'd love to predict a win here, but not only did Northwestern outplay us last year, their coaching staff thoroughly out-coached ours last year. Even one of Taylor Martinez' best games of his career couldn't pull out a win, and there's no reason to believe we'll be able to return the upset win on the road in Evanston this year. No way I can predict a win here. Not after 2010 Texas. Tossup.
Michigan - Denard Robinson returns. Hoke returns, and he's got a couple of top-tier recruiting classes up his sleeve as well. While Shoelace tends to play poorly away from The Big House, and while we've poached Rick Kaczenski from Iowa (whose D Line has stymied Robinson the past two years), who knows if Bo is going to change up his scheme to allow whatever magic Kaczenski has going to work here. Nebraska was dispirited and allowed several mistakes to compound on themselves last year, which led to the blowout loss. But with the talent we lose, will home-cooking and a new scheme (possibly) on Defense be enough to flip last season's results? How can you possibly say it will? Again, no way to predict a win here. Loss.
@ Michigan State - No Kirk Cousins, not one single starter who caught a pass from Cousins, returns - and that includes his star Tight Ends. This is a team that figures to take a major step back offensively in 2012. However, they return eight of eleven starters from an impressive 2011 defense. This will not be an easy game, and if we win, it'll be by the slimmest of margins. Our defense MUST show up to play in this game. Any slipups, at all, and we're looking at a rerun of the Capitol One Bowl vs. South Carolina. The exact same game. Tossup.
Penn State - Stop me if you've heard this before, but we're facing a PSU team breaking in a new head coach. That makes six out of our first ten opponents who will be sporting new coaches/coaching staffs this year. In Penn State's case, I'm not sure it will be a factor. The Nittany Lions are replacing 80% of their Offensive Line and 50% of their Defensive Line. However, this is the sixth and final game of a fearsome stretch during which we figure to face four out of five opponents ranked in the top 25. Much like Sparty when they visited Lincoln last year, you have to wonder how much gas will be left in the tank when we host Penn State. Again, cannot predict a win here, based on all factors. Tossup.
Minnesota - I'll predict a win here. Yes, Jerry Kill returns for his second season, and yes MarQueis Gray is a mobile quarterback. Minnesota is not on par with any of our previous six opponents, but by this time we could, legitimately, have four or five conference losses. What will we have left in the tank? All things considered, we should beat Minnesota despite our struggles with mobile QBs. But the same could be said about Fresno State last year, and we don't have the horses on defense we had in 2011. Tossup.
@ Iowa - There's just something about Iowa that makes me think we're not losing to them, not for a long time to come. Even as battered and bruised as we should be by this time in the season, even playing in Iowa City, even with the Hawkeyes' traditionally stout defense, I don't see us losing to Vandenberg and his depleted Offensive Line (both Tackles gone, and a Guard). McNutt is gone, as is Shaun Prater in their secondary. 2011 wasn't particularly kind to Iowa Fan despite what amounted to the easiest schedule in the Legends division, and I don't think 2012 is going to be any better. I'm calling this a Win.
Big Ten Championship - I sincerely doubt we vie for the Legends Division crown this year. Michigan seems to be the odds-on favorite, and our meat-grinder schedule will preclude any chance that we'll compete for the title. I'd love to be wrong. I doubt I am.
So there you have it. From one of the biggest Sunshine Pumpers on HuskerBoard, I'm predicting three sure wins, seven games that are legitimate tossups, and two certain losses. No conference championship, no Legends championship, and I don't think that's overly pessimistic - just a reality based on recent performance, and taking stock of what we've lost to graduation and what we've brought in through recent recruiting classes. Combine that with some very baffling lack of impactful growth from some touted recruits in years past and the overall difficulty of our schedule, and I very honestly think this will be the toughest year under Bo Pelini yet.
