Dr. Strangelove

At a certain point though, what you're saying needs to be reflected in polling or in favorability ratings. The problem is that you assume that voters properly blame the responsible political party for negative events. But the reality is that voters who are concerned about IVF procedures, the Dobbs decision, or that Donald Trump is a rapist, are already tuned into politics and already support Democrats. The other voters are pretty stupid, don't pay attention to politics, and think that because Biden is President, he's responsible for these things. These voters are hard to reach, don't often vote, and actively dislike politics. They dislike Joe Biden at the moment and Democrats need to win over huge chunks of these voters over 8 months to still lose. Democrats are running out of time.

Which is approximately where it should be. The real odds are 55% Trump/45% Biden, assuming Biden gains ground over the summer. Most people terrified of Trump and who are watching the sheer stupidity of the American voter are huffing a lot of hopium trying to rationalize these numbers.

Democrat stupidity at its finest. They are so preoccupied with performative politics that it's going to lead to a Republican tri-fecta next January. It's hard for Biden favorable to improve when Democrats attack themselves. Joe Biden needs to gain 8% to lose like Hillary Clinton did in 2016. He needs to gain 10% to have a shot at winning. Some people would say this election is Joever.

The vibes based impeachment is sort of imploding. It is only March, so I am curious about what else they do to anger farm their voters until November. Or, they just quadruple down on xenophobia from now until election day.

My God this is hilarious. It's so blatantly obvious that Republicans aren't serious about Hunter Biden but their voters eat this alive to reconcile their own support for corruption.

I forget that their brains are being blown out by non-automatic weapons that are easily modified or just fire really fast after being legally purchased, my apologies.

Yes, their steadfast dedication to originalitist jurisprudence allowing Americans to own automatic weapons - just like the Founding Fathers intended - has notoriously been good for the country. Particularly school children who's brains get patriotically plastered onto classroom walls.

Honestly this is pretty hilarious. You have to admit, Republicans going from "Lock her up!" to "it's absolutely essential that the President be allowed to commit crimes" is quite amazing. Of course, Republican voters are immune from irony so this - like many things - is lost on them. Regarding SCOTUS, it's unfortunate that two of their members are openly compromised and obviously corrupt. Without a miracle, the court will be a Heritage Foundation/Federalist Society outpost for a generation. I'm not sure if or when liberal Justices will control the court again, but it's likely going to be decades.

You're describing politics as normal. It's stupid, but part of the game. What's not normal creating a fake elector scheme to undermine a fair election, inciting an insurrection, and using the propaganda straight from the Kremlin on your own constituency. The contempt Republican elected officials have for their own voters is funny. They repeatedly use and abuse them - literally to pay for the many criminal trials and judgements of their party leader. Such is the case when you create a horde of voters disconnected from reality. You people need to respect yourselves and vote better.

What does this mean? Is this guy an elected official or a candidate for office or something? Truthfully, Democrats and people on the left who do hold dumb views on Gaza - including any moron who claims its a 'genocide' - needs to be put on a rocket ship and launched into the nearest super massive black hole, never to be seen or heard from again. Don't make the mistake of thinking I agree with every online lefty nutjob just because I mock and deride Trump voters. I vote for Democrats because it's the only (often stupid, often with bad ideas) option to choose from.

You are dangerously close to being a write in candidate to certain members of this board of you keep it up. If you rack up a few dozen felonies, look out. How can a border bill that hasn't passed legalize anything? I'm genuinely unsure of what this even means. Also, I hope you understand that your use of "The Big Guy" screens "I fall for Kremlin propaganda easily", my advice is to recognize this and to support political causes that aren't so easily influenced by foreign adversaries.

Yup. It's astonishing. I mean, the idea of Putin preferring Biden - who is currently trying to give Ukraine billions of dollars worth of military equipment - in lieu of Trump who's party doesn't want to give Ukraine military equipment... is just insane.

This is a pretty good summary. Trump won because he tapped into white conspiratorial anger. Nobody wants to admit this because it's a confession that these people are dangerous. So we tip toe around it by coming up with alternatives to rationalize why Trump won, whether it was a savvy campaign (it wasnt) that Trump was a good candidate (he isn't) or that Hillary was a worse candidate (partially true). The reality is more banal. Trump simply harnessed the anger that has been boiling under white grievance. Now, Republicans throw gasoline and fuel this anger to serve their political goals. It's really that simple. A voter base that is now completely disconnected from reality, ready to be angry at whatever is thrown at them.

Yeah, noted truth teller Vladimir Putin certainly has no vested interest in helping Trump and Republicans win again by tapping into the gullibility of conservative America. I mean, who are you going to believe? Vladimir Putin or the 275,000 dead Russian soldiers currently fertilizing Ukrainian soil largely because of American military equipment and intelligence delivered by the Biden Administration? Honestly Archy1221, and I mean this sincerely, what you believe in is not only bad for America. But your understanding of the world around you is deeply flawed, and when you take that flawed and seriously under developed understanding of the world and fill out a ballot it's bad for the world. So, please, stop doing it.

This is a funny way of saying "tapped into rural white voter xenophobia, stupidity, and anger" by saying and doing things Republicans were worried about doing for decades. Trump just had the shameless ability to tap into it. Furthermore, the extreme irony of you saying Trump supporters don't like it when elites like Hillary Clinton think they're above the law is... beyond parody. You, a two time Trump voter, grifted into supporting a rapist-career-criminal-and-con-artist, are actually saying it's because Trump supporters care about politicians following the law? Please Archy1221, I beg you, stop being involved in politics. It's not for you. And understand that there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Stop watching Newsmax, end your Brietbart subscription, and spend your emotional energy on your family or something. Whatever it is, stop voting. Disengage from politics all together.

He's pretty far gone. But that's sort of par for the course for two time Trump voters. Noted arm of liberal propaganda Fox News with this gem.

I don't know what this means. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. The share of college educated voters in Colorado has increased dramatically since 2010. The share of college educated voters moving to Phoneix and Atlanta are increasing dramatically as well. The reason Biden won Arizona and Georgia isn't because he changed the hearts and minds of the voters in those states, opinions cultivated over decades, it's because people from liberal states moved there. Race baiting voters is a thing Republicans do well. These voters aren't historic democrats, they are low propensity voters who don't care about or follow politics until they get angry at something - in this case immigrants - and they vote accordingly.

This, my friends, is what we call projection. I do not believe that Trump won in 2016 because of collusion with Russia - they helped his campaign by targeting his gullible voters just like they're doing now. You voted for a rapist and a career conman, and everybody with a half dozen functioning neurons told you it was a bad idea to vote for him and you did it anyway. Please, for the good of America, stop voting. You've done enough damage to our institutions as it is.

The funny thing is, let's hypothetically assume that this is primo-grade-A-Columbian cocaine. In what world does this matter to the current President?

This is fundamentally untrue. Colorado, for example, didn't switch from swing state to becoming solidly blue because of Democrats changing the minds of Reagan voters from the 1980s. Colorado is blue because young, college educated people have moved into the state from other states essentially out numbering them. Texas is turning blue not because Democrats are mass changing the minds of Republican voters who've lived in the state for decades, it's because people are moving there and are beginning to outnumber them. The same thing is true for other swing states that are now Red, such as Iowa or Ohio. College educated voters are leaving those states, making them redder and redder over time. States change largely because of demographic shifts over time, not because huge swaths of the electorate suddenly change their political views. What Trump and the MAGA movement have successfully done is awaken huge swaths of voters who didn't care much or participate in politics prior to 2016. By mobilizing an easily manipulated cohort of voters, he has cultivated a powerful political movement that allows him to be competitive in elections. This has also contributed to the red shift in former swing states. I've told you previously I voted for Ben Sasse in 2020 because his opponent was terrible. Additionally, you currently believe that Biden is part of a large corruption scandal despite huge swaths of evidence - admitted to even by Republicans - that it is largely made up, without evidence, and includes no crimes. But you believe in this in order to reconcile your own support for corrupt candidates as a two time Trump voter. This makes you a poster child for extreme partisanship studied by academics who are amazed that voters can construct their own reality, devoid of facts or a basis in reason, in order to fit the world around their poor political preferences.

I'm pretty sure I've said many times that in the aggregate, voter preferences do not change enough to win elections. Individual voters change their mind in small numbers, particularly those plugged into politics enough to post about it on the internet. This is much less true today than it was 40 years ago. Partisanship has increases dramatically since the 1980s. You're kind of the poster child for believing in your political beliefs even when they're completely disconnected from reality. It's kind of funny you, of all people, are posting about voters changing their minds. Also, to be clear, voters vote preferences stick once they reach their mid 20s. Young people do change their minds but it's becoming less common, voting preferences are becoming more rigid.

It's absolutely wild that the border was an orderly and non-chaotic place prior to 2021. I'm not an expert, but this is news to me.

I think this is a fair take. We'll get an idea over the summer if Trump's legal woes actually start to erode his electoral support. Being liable for rape and defaming his victim seem to have little to no effect on his support thus far. He's also likely to get a bump when SCOTUS rules in his favor in the Colorado case. One main point you make which is completely valid is that the average voter is still unaware that Trump has essentially clinched the nomination. Polling this far out isn't accurate, and the true gravity of a 2020 rematch may not be reflected in polling thus far.

Just so I'm keeping score, the main witnesses to this entire charade was a Chinese spy and a Russian spy? I had no idea the Democrat-cabal reached such depths. Joe "The Big Guy" Biden's corruption is so deep, it ties to both the Chinese and Russian espionage efforts.

While that is funny, Lorewarn is correct. States change who they vote for for a variety of factors. Demographic shifts, education polarization, and other factors have far more of an effect on why Iowa and Colorado are no longer swing states than it has to do with voters in those states changing their minds election to election. The voting electorate isn't identical in each state since people move, new voters reach the age of 18, or low propensity voters who rarely vote suddenly get involved in politics (Trump is excellent at this). I think the election this year is high variable and external factors - mainly Donald Trump's legal issues - make this election unique. My opinion would be, if Donald Trump's legal woes are going to harm his electoral prospects, I think we would be seeing that in the polls already. Right now, I don't think Trump voters really care. They're going to passionately vote for him. Biden voters (and this is a problem with the coalition that makes up the Democratic Party) are much less enthusiastic about 2024 than they were in 2020. He's going to have to hope that enthusiasm after the Dobbs decision, that PTSD from the moronic Trump Presidency, and other factors can motivate his voters to show up once again in 2024. I have my doubts that the Biden base is as motivated as the Trump base. Of course, they could move to nominate another candidate to help alleviate the enthusiasm problem. But Gavin Newsome is a coastal elite who does not help their chances of winning crucial Midwest states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Gretchen Whitmer helps solidify the midwest vote, but nominating a white woman is dicey. Nominating her hurts their prospects among minority groups, their chances of winning in Georgia/Nevada. Candidates like Pete Buttigieg suffer from similar problems, and nominating Michelle Obama is a weird pipe dream. I don't think there's a candidate they can nominate that gives them a better shot at winning than Biden, for all his electoral flaws.