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** 2023 Previews: Bill Connelly's SP+ Projections **


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College football's post-spring SP+ rankings and takeaways

The transfer portal is slowing down, media days are around the corner and with all due respect to Week 0 -- I love it dearly, just as much as all the other weeks -- we're officially 100 days from Sept. 2, the first real Saturday of the 2023 college football season.

It seems like a pretty good time, then, to get up to date on the numbers. Since February's initial 2023 SP+ release, we've seen a number of transfers and big moves, and I've been able to better update returning production figures to account for teams' official roster releases. (Not many had released full rosters in early February.) We haven't seen much movement at the very top of the rankings, but there's plenty to talk about.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/37720386/college-football-post-spring-sp+-rankings-takeaways

 

 

 

 

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Post-Spring College Football SP+ Rankings

TEAM SP+ OFF. SP+ DEF. SP+
1. Georgia 29.9 41.9 (9) 11.9 (3)
2. Ohio St. 29.6 46.4 (2) 16.7 (13)
3. Michigan 29.2 42.0 (7) 12.9 (4)
4. Alabama 27.9 44.2 (5) 16.3 (10)
5. LSU 25.2 41.6 (10) 16.4 (12)
6. Tennessee 23.9 45.5 (3) 21.6 (31)
7. USC 23.6 46.4 (1) 22.8 (39)
8. Penn St. 23.5 37.5 (22) 14.0 (6)
9. Texas 23.3 40.4 (11) 17.1 (16)
10. Florida St. 21.6 38.4 (19) 16.8 (14)
11. Oregon 21.5 44.5 (4) 23.0 (42)
12. Clemson 21.3 37.6 (21) 16.3 (11)
13. Oklahoma 19.7 42.1 (6) 22.4 (37)
14. Utah 19.4 40.0 (13) 20.6 (26)
15. Notre Dame 19.3 36.3 (26) 17.0 (15)
16. Texas A&M 18.8 30.7 (44) 11.9 (2)
17. Washington 18.3 42.0 (8) 23.7 (48)
18. Ole Miss 17.5 39.0 (14) 21.4 (30)
19. Wisconsin 15.8 31.4 (41) 15.6 (7)
20. TCU 15.8 38.7 (16) 23.0 (41)
21. Florida 14.8 37.4 (23) 22.6 (38)
22. Kentucky 14.5 28.1 (59) 13.7 (5)
23. Kansas St. 14.3 36.1 (27) 21.8 (34)
24. UCLA 14.3 40.0 (12) 25.7 (60)
25. Miss. St. 14.1 35.8 (29) 21.7 (32)
26. Arkansas 13.8 38.6 (17) 24.8 (51)
27. Auburn 13.7 33.5 (35) 19.8 (23)
28. N. Carolina 13.5 38.8 (15) 25.3 (55)
29. Iowa 13.2 23.2 (81) 10.1 (1)
30. Oregon St. 12.8 34.1 (34) 21.3 (29)
31. Minnesota 12.0 27.7 (63) 15.7 (9)
32. Baylor 11.9 35.5 (30) 23.6 (47)
33. S. Carolina 11.6 37.9 (20) 26.3 (64)
34. Missouri 11.1 29.4 (52) 18.3 (17)
35. UCF 11.0 33.3 (37) 22.3 (36)
36. Louisville 11.0 29.9 (50) 18.9 (20)
37. Miami 10.9 30.3 (47) 19.3 (22)
38. Texas Tech 10.8 38.5 (18) 27.7 (69)
39. Oklahoma St. 10.5 36.0 (28) 25.5 (59)
40. Maryland 9.0 30.0 (49) 21.1 (27)
41. Pittsburgh 8.7 32.7 (40) 24.0 (49)
42. Michigan St. 7.9 28.5 (56) 20.6 (25)
43. NC St. 7.5 26.8 (67) 19.3 (21)
44. Illinois 7.0 22.7 (86) 15.7 (8)
45. Iowa St. 6.8 25.3 (74) 18.5 (18)
46. Cincinnati 6.4 25.2 (76) 18.9 (19)
47. Tulane 5.8 34.1 (33) 28.3 (72)
48. Purdue 5.7 30.6 (45) 24.9 (52)
49. Nebraska 5.3 27.3 (65) 22.0 (35)
50. SMU 5.1 37.4 (24) 32.3 (100)
51. Wake Forest 4.8 33.3 (38) 28.5 (73)
52. Syracuse 4.7 27.7 (62) 23.0 (43)
53. Houston 4.3 37.1 (25) 32.8 (102)
54. California 4.0 26.9 (66) 22.9 (40)
55. Duke 4.0 29.7 (51) 25.8 (61)
56. W. Virginia 3.0 31.1 (43) 28.1 (71)
57. UTSA 2.9 33.2 (39) 30.3 (85)
58. Wash. St. 2.3 27.4 (64) 25.0 (54)
59. Memphis 2.0 33.4 (36) 31.4 (94)
60. BYU 1.8 31.2 (42) 29.5 (80)
61. Kansas 0.9 34.6 (31) 33.7 (106)
62. Boise St. 0.6 26.1 (70) 25.5 (57)
63. Arizona St. 0.2 30.4 (46) 30.2 (84)
64. Troy -0.6 22.4 (88) 23.0 (44)
65. Va. Tech -1.4 22.1 (90) 23.5 (46)
66. Marshall -2.5 20.6 (96) 23.1 (45)
67. Ga. Tech -2.7 22.3 (89) 25.0 (53)
68. Fresno St. -2.8 22.7 (85) 25.5 (58)
69. Vanderbilt -3.1 29.2 (53) 32.3 (99)
70. Arizona -3.1 34.6 (32) 37.6 (123)
71. Indiana -3.4 27.8 (61) 31.2 (92)
72. S. Alabama -3.6 24.0 (79) 27.6 (67)
73. Rutgers -4.0 20.8 (95) 24.8 (50)
74. Boston Coll. -4.2 22.0 (91) 26.2 (63)
75. Coastal Caro. -4.6 28.6 (55) 33.2 (105)
76. Toledo -4.7 25.7 (72) 30.4 (86)
77. App. St. -4.7 28.3 (57) 33.0 (103)
78. Louisiana -4.8 24.7 (77) 29.6 (81)
79. Virginia -5.3 14.7 (124) 19.9 (24)
80. JMU -5.4 25.2 (75) 30.6 (87)
81. Air Force -6.1 15.6 (122) 21.7 (33)
82. FAU -6.5 23.4 (80) 29.8 (82)
83. Northwestern -6.7 14.6 (126) 21.3 (28)
84. WKU -6.9 28.7 (54) 35.6 (117)
85. SDSU -7.3 18.0 (110) 25.3 (56)
86. N. Texas -7.7 30.2 (48) 37.9 (125)
87. Liberty -7.8 24.1 (78) 31.9 (96)
88. ECU -8.2 19.4 (103) 27.6 (68)
89. Georgia St. -9.5 26.7 (68) 36.3 (120)
90. So. Miss -9.6 21.4 (93) 31.1 (91)
91. Army -9.7 21.0 (94) 30.7 (88)
92. Wyoming -10.0 16.2 (121) 26.2 (62)
93. Ohio -10.0 25.9 (71) 35.9 (118)
94. UAB -10.1 18.4 (107) 28.5 (74)
95. Stanford -10.1 17.4 (115) 27.5 (66)
96. Ga. Southern -10.5 27.9 (60) 38.5 (129)
97. SJSU -10.8 20.6 (97) 31.3 (93)
98. Navy -11.1 17.6 (113) 28.8 (78)
99. Temple -11.2 19.6 (102) 30.8 (89)
100. Tulsa -11.5 26.7 (69) 38.2 (127)
101. Miami-OH -11.8 15.2 (123) 27.0 (65)
102. Buffalo -11.9 22.9 (83) 34.9 (113)
103. Colorado -12.6 22.8 (84) 35.4 (115)
104. MTSU -12.8 19.3 (104) 32.2 (98)
105. EMU -13.1 20.0 (100) 33.1 (104)
106. USF -13.5 25.5 (73) 39.0 (130)
107. UNLV -13.8 20.4 (98) 34.2 (109)
108. La. Tech -13.8 28.1 (58) 42.0 (133)
109. CMU -13.9 16.3 (120) 30.1 (83)
110. Arkansas St. -14.6 20.2 (99) 34.9 (112)
111. Ball St. -14.6 17.3 (116) 31.9 (97)
112. Rice -14.9 22.5 (87) 37.4 (122)
113. Nevada -15.4 16.3 (119) 31.7 (95)
114. NIU -16.1 23.0 (82) 39.1 (131)
115. UConn -16.2 14.6 (125) 30.8 (90)
116. Utah St. -16.2 18.0 (111) 34.2 (110)
117. UTEP -16.3 18.2 (108) 34.5 (111)
118. Colorado St. -16.4 12.3 (127) 28.7 (77)
119. ODU -16.4 12.2 (128) 28.6 (76)
120. WMU -17.1 16.8 (118) 33.9 (108)
121. Sam Houston -17.4 10.7 (131) 28.1 (70)
122. NMSU -17.5 17.9 (112) 35.4 (116)
123. J'ville St. -18.2 21.5 (92) 39.7 (132)
124. Hawaii -18.4 17.6 (114) 35.9 (119)
125. BGSU -18.4 19.8 (101) 38.3 (128)
126. Charlotte -18.5 16.9 (117) 35.3 (114)
127. FIU -18.5 18.7 (105) 37.2 (121)
128. Texas St. -19.4 9.2 (132) 28.6 (75)
129. UL-Monroe -19.6 18.6 (106) 38.1 (126)
130. Akron -19.6 18.1 (109) 37.7 (124)
131. UMass -21.7 11.0 (130) 32.7 (101)
132. New Mexico -21.7 12.2 (129) 33.9 (107)
133. Kent St. -23.0 6.2 (133) 29.1 (79)
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2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Killer non-con we got this year.  Sets up great for a 1st year coach

 

#103 Colorado

#108 La Tech

#114 Northern Illinois

Yeah...but I really wish we weren't starting with Minnesota then CU both on the road.  But...it's an opportunity for the team to prove something and set themselves up with momentum for the rest of the season.

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5 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Yeah...but I really wish we weren't starting with Minnesota then CU both on the road.  But...it's an opportunity for the team to prove something and set themselves up with momentum for the rest of the season.

 

I know its year 1 and I shouldn't have any expectations, but I am going to be very disappointed if we don't win those 3 + Northwestern.

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2 hours ago, Red Five said:

 

I know its year 1 and I shouldn't have any expectations, but I am going to be very disappointed if we don't win those 3 + Northwestern.

Same. We've become so used to losing that we excused it for the last two hires when they had bad losses out of the gate.

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12 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

Yeah...but I really wish we weren't starting with Minnesota then CU both on the road.  But...it's an opportunity for the team to prove something and set themselves up with momentum for the rest of the season.

I agree with you about starting vs Minnesota. @Colorado will basically be a home game and great to start the year off with a road W. If they can start off 3-1 that will be huge for the players confidence something that always seemed to lack under Frost.

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1 hour ago, Husker816 said:

I agree with you about starting vs Minnesota. @Colorado will basically be a home game and great to start the year off with a road W. If they can start off 3-1 that will be huge for the players confidence something that always seemed to lack under Frost.

I'm not convinced it will be a red out like last time.  Colorado people are more interested, Nebraska people felt burned last time and ticket prices are way higher than the already ridiculous last time.  I'm not going this time and I work 15 minutes from CU.

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10 hours ago, Husker816 said:

I agree with you about starting vs Minnesota. @Colorado will basically be a home game and great to start the year off with a road W. If they can start off 3-1 that will be huge for the players confidence something that always seemed to lack under Frost.

Yeah...well...we should have beat CU the last two times we played them.  If we lose to Minnesota the first week, I'm not convinced this team will have the confidence to go into CU and beat even a really bad CU team.

 

But...I agree.  If we can start 3-1, that will help the team going into the rest of conference play.

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12 hours ago, runningblind said:

I'm not convinced it will be a red out like last time.  Colorado people are more interested, Nebraska people felt burned last time and ticket prices are way higher than the already ridiculous last time.  I'm not going this time and I work 15 minutes from CU.

 

 

Current cheapest face value is $400 a ticket to watch some.... bad football.

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4 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

Yeah...well...we should have beat CU the last two times we played them.  If we lose to Minnesota the first week, I'm not convinced this team will have the confidence to go into CU and beat even a really bad CU team.

 

But...I agree.  If we can start 3-1, that will help the team going into the rest of conference play.

 

I'm not sure how anyone could be confident in the bolded.  CU will be one of if not the most interesting teams to watch this season.  Coach Prime will either look like a mad scientist genius or a colossal failure at seasons end with what he did with his roster.    

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1 hour ago, junior4949 said:

 

I'm not sure how anyone could be confident in the bolded.  CU will be one of if not the most interesting teams to watch this season.  Coach Prime will either look like a mad scientist genius or a colossal failure at seasons end with what he did with his roster.    

They are a 1 win team laat year that lost over 50 players. Its going to take time to get that team going. If you look at their roster its not very good at all

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On 5/26/2023 at 3:08 PM, Husker816 said:

They are a 1 win team laat year that lost over 50 players. Its going to take time to get that team going. If you look at their roster its not very good at all

They were the worst team last year.

  Scoring Offense
  127   Colorado 15.4
  128   Northwestern 13.8
  129   Colorado St. 13.2
  130   New Mexico 13.1
  131   Massachusetts 12.5
         
  Scoring Defense
  127   FIU 37.25
  128   Louisiana Tech 37.92
  129   Charlotte 39.42
  130   South Fla. 41.17
  131   Colorado 44.5
         
  Difference
  126   Northwestern -14.53
  127   Hawaii -14.89
  128   Charlotte -15.02
  129   FIU -18.55
  130   Massachusetts -18.58
  131   Colorado -29.1
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