2024 Game 4 "Expert" Picks: Illinois at Nebraska

[Saunders]

2024 Game 4 “Expert” Picks: #24 Illinois @ #22 Nebraska
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CollegeFootballNews.com
It’s been a lot of fun to be a fan of these two teams so far. Nebraska is 3-0 for the first time since 2016, but it’s been an easy run - and yes, that includes the victory over Colorado. The team is playing well, the defense has been fantastic, and Dylan Raiola is a great young quarterback to build around. Sometimes as a sports fan, it’s a ton of fun when your team is just getting good. Illinois is also 3-0, easing by Central Michigan last week and with a strong home win over Kansas to get the season going. With a trip to Penn State up next, and with Michigan and at Oregon on the horizon before November, this is a big moment for the Illini.

Why Illinois Will Win
Nebraska has yet to face a team that can run the ball. It’s not that Northern Iowa didn’t give it a shot, but that’s an FCS team - the Panthers only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Colorado can’t run and UTEP is UTEP. Illinois has been decent throwing it, and it got stuffed a bit too easily by Kansas, but it’ll start bashing away on the Husker front from the start. Last year the coaching staff screwed up and only ran a season-low 19 times against Nebraska in the 20-7 loss. This time, the idea will be to keep bashing until something starts to break. But there’s one other key here - the turnover monster hasn’t hit the Huskers yet. They’ve been far more careful with the ball, partly because they haven’t needed to take any chances. Meanwhile, Illinois is +8 in turnover margin over the first three games.

Why Nebraska Will Win
Yeah, about that running the ball for Illinois - there’s a shot it can’t do it. It’s been too easy to let veteran Luke Altmyer throw and take over the offense in key situations, and it’ll likely stick with the plan to mix it up a bit. He’ll have to keep up with the kid on the other side. Raiola has been brilliant. It’s asking WAY too much for a freshman to rise up and carry an entire program, but that’s what he’s been doing. He’s hitting 74% of his passes with five scores and just one pick. It also helps that the Huskers are protecting their star. Nebraska has allowed just one sack and 12 tackles for loss so far. Illinois has yet to show enough push into the backfield to matter - the tackles for loss aren’t there on a consistent basis.

Illinois vs Nebraska: Who Will Win
There’s a major Prove It factor for Nebraska, and Illinois will provide it. This is the first time all season the Huskers will have to get physical. It’s also the first time they’ll have to handle a nasty secondary. Illinois is great at bringing a big-time attitude on the road, especially when it’s not expected to do much. It’ll push the Huskers for a full four quarters helped by two takeaways - just wait; the Illini will dial up the pressure on Raiola. But unlike past Husker teams, this one won’t turtle when it counts.

Nebraska 23 - Illinois 20

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CFN Experts

Big Game Ben, CFN: Nebraska*
E, CFN: Nebraska
Jackson Caudell: Nebraska*
Nathan Erbach, ND on SI: Nebraska*
Pete Fiutak, CFN: Nebraska*
John Kennedy, ND on SI: Nebraska*
Andrew Margolick, CFN: Illinois
Jeremy Mauss: Nebraska
Doug Millen, CFN: Nebraska*
Johnny Rosenstein: Nebraska*
Nick Shepkowski:Nebraska*
Joe Vitale: Nebraska
CONSENSUS PICK: Nebraska*

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ESPN FPI
Nebraska - 69.3% Win
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DRatings
Nebraska 24 - Illinois 17
Nebraska - 71.3% Win
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ESPN Bill Connelly SP+
Nebraska 24 - Illinois 16
Nebraska - 71% Win
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247 Sports
Hummer - I think there's good value with Illinois here. The Illini have owned this series of late, winning three of the last four games. We're also seeing a renewed Illinois offense with Luke Altmyer looking much more comfortable as the team's starter in Year 2. So, give me the Illini to cover. Nebraska wins the game, though. Illinois has been a middling run defense this year (78th nationally in yards allowed per rush) and that could be a problem against a Husker offensive front that's moving people.
Nebraska 24 - Illinois 20

Crawford — Illinois has the strength at the line of scrimmage to make this one interesting on Friday and I would not be surprised if the line closes closer to a touchdown than its current mark. That said, Nebraska is on a mission in hopes of continuing to impress poll voters before the season really kicks into high gear in a few weeks. I projected the Huskers to cruise through the first month of the season with Dylan Raiola leading the charge, so I'm not backing off that prediction now.
Nebraska 31 - Illinois 20
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Sporting News
Nebraska beat Illinois 20-7 on the road last season. The Illini had just 21 rushing yards in that loss. Illinois has a +8 turnover margin, but Nebraska freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola (73.8% completion percentage) has just one INT in three starts. If Nebraska does not turn the ball over, it should pull away. Illinois is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog under Bret Bielema, so this requires betting through the trend.
Nebraska 28 - Illinois 17
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More to come!!!

[Saunders]

Weird seeing a ranked matchup, been a long time since I've done one like this.

[teachercd]

Illinois on the road for the first time, I am guessing the trend continues of them being a mess.  I think they lost like 10 out of their last 12 road openers.  

 

The KU win is nice but it seems like teams figured out KU and their QB and of course they did get 4 picks.

 

If the Illini bring a man down in the box, that should play into NU's advantage with some really good matchups.  

 

I am guessing that NU will jump out early and be able to keep control.

[BigRedBuster]

1 hour ago, Saunders said:

Illinois vs Nebraska: Who Will Win
There’s a major Prove It factor for Nebraska, and Illinois will provide it. This is the first time all season the Huskers will have to get physical. It’s also the first time they’ll have to handle a nasty secondary. Illinois is great at bringing a big-time attitude on the road, especially when it’s not expected to do much. It’ll push the Huskers for a full four quarters helped by two takeaways - just wait; the Illini will dial up the pressure on Raiola. But unlike past Husker teams, this one won’t turtle when it counts.

Nebraska 23 - Illinois 20

To the bolded.  Wasn't CU supposed to have a really good secondary that was supposed to challenge us?

[runningblind]

11 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

To the bolded.  Wasn't CU supposed to have a really good secondary that was supposed to challenge us?

We only threw for 185 on 30 attempts against CU.  I would say they did pretty well in our game.  They rank 87th in pass defense, where as Illinois is currently 31st at 151 ypg.  Nebraska sits at 57th. 

[Red Five]

I am surprised people are projecting Illinois to get 20 points.  Nothing in the first 3 games indicates they will get more than than 13 or 14 points.

 

If we can get to 20 we should be good.

 

I am saying 31-10.

[Moiraine]

3 hours ago, teachercd said:

Illinois on the road for the first time, I am guessing the trend continues of them being a mess.  I think they lost like 10 out of their last 12 road openers.  

 

The KU win is nice but it seems like teams figured out KU and their QB and of course they did get 4 picks.

 

If the Illini bring a man down in the box, that should play into NU's advantage with some really good matchups.  

 

I am guessing that NU will jump out early and be able to keep control.

 

 

Illinois has won 2 in a row in Lincoln but... I don't care.

 

 

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

I am saying 31-10.

 

 

Me too.

[knapplc]

Mazzccua will be available for this game.

[TGHusker]

20 minutes ago, knapplc said:

Mazzccua will be available for this game.

Is that something just announced?

[Moiraine]

3 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Is that something just announced?

 

 

Here, it's set at the correct time.

 

 

[TGHusker]

Thanks @Moiraine   Good to hear he's available.  This may be a bit more brutal trench battle than the first 3 games. 

[DefenderAO]

Huskers by 35

[Kayvan]

1 hour ago, DefenderAO said:

Huskers by 35

I’ve got Huskers by 17-28. 

[teachercd]

2 hours ago, TGHusker said:

Thanks @Moiraine   Good to hear he's available.  This may be a bit more brutal trench battle than the first 3 games. 

Ehhh, the Illini DL is nothing special, neither are their LBers, but their secondary is good.

 

The Illini OL struggles.  Their QB could be running for his life.

[Undone]

5 hours ago, Red Five said:

I am surprised people are projecting Illinois to get 20 points.  Nothing in the first 3 games indicates they will get more than than 13 or 14 points.

 

If we can get to 20 we should be good.

 

I am saying 31-10.

 

This guy Kool-Aid's!     

 

Luke Altmeyer has 14 carries for 37 yards this year. Do we have to be worried about him scrambling on broken plays? Maybe. Last Saturday was probably a good tune-up game in that regard.

 

Bielema put together a good defense one year with Illinois. But I think the physicality of our team this year makes us a bad matchup for them.