Team Ranking (w the 3 targets)

[kchusker_chris]

There have been a number of questions regarding "where will we be ranked" if we happen to sign all 3 recruits. A lot of speculation has put us anywhere from the top 10 (me when I compared us to Florida St) to just inside the top 25. Well, here you have it. #13...right in front of Oregon.

 

Here are the totals, as well as the script I used to generate the numbers at the bottom in case someone else wants to use it. Do not use it for evil. You'll need to be somewhat familiar with programming. Don't mock my coding skills if you can do better, I only spent about 15 minutes on this. Please don't flood this post with requests for me to run a bunch of variations. Enjoy

 

Current: 1146

 

With Only:

Owa: 1434

Carnes: 1284

Cooper: 1284

 

With Carnes & Owa: 1568

 

WITH ALL 3: 1700

 

 

 

DECLARE @tmp_recruit TABLE
(	id int IDENTITY(1,1),
name varchar(250),
star_count decimal(3,2),
rivals_ranking smallint,
position_ranking smallint,
position varchar(5),
h smallint,
l smallint,
rivals_ranking_sum smallint,
position_ranking_sum smallint,
n smallint)

DECLARE @tmp_position_upper_limit TABLE
(	position varchar(5),
upper_limit smallint)

DECLARE @h decimal(18,4)
DECLARE @l decimal(18,4)
DECLARE @n decimal(18,4)
DECLARE @m decimal(18,4)
DECLARE @avg_star decimal(3,2)

INSERT INTO @tmp_recruit
(	name,star_count,rivals_ranking,position_ranking,position)
SELECT name,star_count,rivals_ranking,position_ranking,position
FROM recruit WITH(NOLOCK)
--WHERE name <> 'Owamagbe Odighizuwa'
-- AND name <> 'Brian Carnes'
-- AND name <> 'Corey Cooper'
ORDER BY star_count DESC

INSERT INTO @tmp_position_upper_limit
SELECT 'DQB',25 UNION
SELECT 'PQB',25 UNION
SELECT 'RB',35 UNION
SELECT 'FB',15 UNION
SELECT 'WR',50 UNION
SELECT 'TE',20 UNION
SELECT 'OT',40 UNION
SELECT 'OG',30 UNION
SELECT 'OC',10 UNION
SELECT 'DT',50 UNION
SELECT 'WDE',20 UNION
SELECT 'SDE',30 UNION
SELECT 'ILB', 35 UNION
SELECT 'OLB', 35 UNION
SELECT 'CB',40 UNION
SELECT 'S',30 UNION
SELECT 'A',25 UNION
SELECT 'K',5

-- DELETE ANY RECRUITS OVER 20
DELETE FROM @tmp_recruit WHERE id > 20

UPDATE @tmp_recruit
SET h =  CASE	WHEN star_count = 5 THEN 250 
				WHEN star_count = 4 THEN 140 
				WHEN star_count = 3 THEN 75 
				WHEN star_count = 2 THEN 20 
				ELSE 10 
			END

UPDATE @tmp_recruit
SET l =  CASE	WHEN star_count = 5 THEN 18 
				WHEN star_count = 4 THEN 12 
				WHEN star_count = 3 THEN 8 
				WHEN star_count = 2 THEN 3 
				ELSE 1
			END

UPDATE @tmp_recruit
SET rivals_ranking_sum = CASE	WHEN rivals_ranking IS NOT NULL THEN 10 - (rivals_ranking / 10)
							ELSE 0
					 END

UPDATE @tmp_recruit SET rivals_ranking_sum = 0 WHERE rivals_ranking_sum < 0


UPDATE tmp_r
SET position_ranking_sum = CASE WHEN position_ranking IS NOT NULL THEN
								CASE	WHEN position_ranking = 1 THEN 24 
										WHEN position_ranking BETWEEN 2 AND 5 THEN 18 
										WHEN position_ranking BETWEEN 6 AND tmp_p.upper_limit THEN 8
									    ELSE 0
								 END
							ELSE 0
						END 
FROM @tmp_recruit tmp_r
INNER JOIN @tmp_position_upper_limit tmp_p ON tmp_p.position = tmp_r.position	

UPDATE @tmp_recruit
SET n = rivals_ranking_sum + position_ranking_sum


SELECT @h = SUM(h) FROM @tmp_recruit
SELECT @l = SUM(l) FROM @tmp_recruit
SELECT @n = SUM(n) FROM @tmp_recruit
SET @m = 50

SELECT @avg_star = avg(star_count) FROM @tmp_recruit


IF @avg_star > 3
BEGIN
SET @n = @n + (100 * (@avg_star - 3))
END

SELECT @h * (@n / (@n + @m)) + @l * (@m / (@n + @m))

[EZ-E]

What is this the Matrix??????????

 

 

Just kidding man. Good post.

[JugglingArmadillos]

Awesome, I was trying to figure out how these points are totaled.

[caveman99]

Good stuff KC

[HuskerFowler]

thats good news...well done. Lets hope we get all 3.

[kchusker_chris]

a few things you will notice from the script (if you can read it)

 

- top 20 players fit into the calculation, but the algorithm helps balance out classes of 13 vs classes of 20

- counts stars, not the ranking (a 4 star ranked 5.8 is the same as one ranked 6.0 in the calc)

- position ranking helps, but only to a certain point. The type of position figures into the calculation. Theyh assume there will be more quality defensive tackles needed (50) than offensive centers (10)

- A JUCO #1 5* recruit is almost the same as a Rivals 100 #1 5* except that JUCO players do not have position rankings, so assuming their stars are the same, they loose out on 8-24 points.

[mitch7]

Impressive, now where does rivals rank my sexiness at? 1...2?

 

A top 15 class would be great, but like others have said, we are not the only team that will be adding recruits.

[kchusker_chris]

Impressive, now where does rivals rank my sexiness at? 1...2?

 

A top 15 class would be great, but like others have said, we are not the only team that will be adding recruits.

 

True, but I'm not sure anyone behind us will jump that far...and most of the big time recruits that are left out there and can really cause a swing in the numbers will sign w/ classes in the current top 15. USC, TX, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, TN, etc. I think we could easily end up right around 15-17.

 

The last 3-4 years 1700 points has been exactly 15th each year. I'd take it

[HuskerNMO]

a few things you will notice from the script (if you can read it)

 

- top 20 players fit into the calculation, but the algorithm helps balance out classes of 13 vs classes of 20

- counts stars, not the ranking (a 4 star ranked 5.8 is the same as one ranked 6.0 in the calc)

- position ranking helps, but only to a certain point. The type of position figures into the calculation. Theyh assume there will be more quality defensive tackles needed (50) than offensive centers (10)

- A JUCO #1 5* recruit is almost the same as a Rivals 100 #1 5* except that JUCO players do not have position rankings, so assuming their stars are the same, they loose out on 8-24 points.

 

Where'd you get the info on the formulas? Marsh actually dropped our class ranking, does your formula show that?

[EZ-E]

a few things you will notice from the script (if you can read it)

 

- top 20 players fit into the calculation, but the algorithm helps balance out classes of 13 vs classes of 20

- counts stars, not the ranking (a 4 star ranked 5.8 is the same as one ranked 6.0 in the calc)

- position ranking helps, but only to a certain point. The type of position figures into the calculation. Theyh assume there will be more quality defensive tackles needed (50) than offensive centers (10)

- A JUCO #1 5* recruit is almost the same as a Rivals 100 #1 5* except that JUCO players do not have position rankings, so assuming their stars are the same, they loose out on 8-24 points.

 

Where'd you get the info on the formulas? Marsh actually dropped our class ranking, does your formula show that?

 

Its quite interesting that Marsh is even listed as a commit for this year. Normally greyshirts wouldnt be listed would they?????

[caveman99]

a few things you will notice from the script (if you can read it)

 

- top 20 players fit into the calculation, but the algorithm helps balance out classes of 13 vs classes of 20

- counts stars, not the ranking (a 4 star ranked 5.8 is the same as one ranked 6.0 in the calc)

- position ranking helps, but only to a certain point. The type of position figures into the calculation. Theyh assume there will be more quality defensive tackles needed (50) than offensive centers (10)

- A JUCO #1 5* recruit is almost the same as a Rivals 100 #1 5* except that JUCO players do not have position rankings, so assuming their stars are the same, they loose out on 8-24 points.

 

Where'd you get the info on the formulas? Marsh actually dropped our class ranking, does your formula show that?

Actually that isn't true, right after Rivals added in Marsh, NU went up 1 spot to 27th. We are back at 28th today because someone moved up, not sure who. Rivals takes the top 20 recruits in calculating the points, this is done to offset the gigantic classes. Even though Marsh is a 2 Star, because NU doesn't have 20 recruits he just added points to the total. If the 3 big targets commit, then only 1 2-Star Prospect will get counted in NU's total points.

 

EZ- They count the recruit in the year they signed, not when they show up unless the young man goes JUCO and has to get re-recruited. Antonio Bell counted against 2008 even though he didn't get into the program with the 2009 early enrollees.

[HuskerNMO]

a few things you will notice from the script (if you can read it)

 

- top 20 players fit into the calculation, but the algorithm helps balance out classes of 13 vs classes of 20

- counts stars, not the ranking (a 4 star ranked 5.8 is the same as one ranked 6.0 in the calc)

- position ranking helps, but only to a certain point. The type of position figures into the calculation. Theyh assume there will be more quality defensive tackles needed (50) than offensive centers (10)

- A JUCO #1 5* recruit is almost the same as a Rivals 100 #1 5* except that JUCO players do not have position rankings, so assuming their stars are the same, they loose out on 8-24 points.

 

Where'd you get the info on the formulas? Marsh actually dropped our class ranking, does your formula show that?

Actually that isn't true, right after Rivals added in Marsh, NU went up 1 spot to 27th. We are back at 28th today because someone moved up, not sure who. Rivals takes the top 20 recruits in calculating the points, this is done to offset the gigantic classes. Even though Marsh is a 2 Star, because NU doesn't have 20 recruits he just added points to the total. If the 3 big targets commit, then only 1 2-Star Prospect will get counted in NU's total points.

 

EZ- They count the recruit in the year they signed, not when they show up unless the young man goes JUCO and has to get re-recruited. Antonio Bell counted against 2008 even though he didn't get into the program with the 2009 early enrollees.

Before Marsh the class value was 1152, after it was 1146. In the forumula average stars play into the N value. Marsh took the average star count from 3.22 to 3.15 which cost us 7 points in the "N" value of the formula.

 

If you took out Evans, Marsh and Cotton the class would be around 1166 by my calculations, this is where the formula has a flaw IMO, it's better NOT to take 2*'s and have open spots than add them.

 

And by my calculations, if you dropped all of the 3 stars except Vestal and Moody, and then added Owa, Carnes and Cooper we would be at 1249.

 

So Rivals thinks just having Owa, Cooper and Carnes is better than the combo of Ashburn, Bell, Enunwa, Evans, Guy, Jackson, Mitchell and Okuyemi. 1 5 star and 2 4 stars is worth more than 8 3 stars. That deserves a

[caveman99]

a few things you will notice from the script (if you can read it)

 

- top 20 players fit into the calculation, but the algorithm helps balance out classes of 13 vs classes of 20

- counts stars, not the ranking (a 4 star ranked 5.8 is the same as one ranked 6.0 in the calc)

- position ranking helps, but only to a certain point. The type of position figures into the calculation. Theyh assume there will be more quality defensive tackles needed (50) than offensive centers (10)

- A JUCO #1 5* recruit is almost the same as a Rivals 100 #1 5* except that JUCO players do not have position rankings, so assuming their stars are the same, they loose out on 8-24 points.

 

Where'd you get the info on the formulas? Marsh actually dropped our class ranking, does your formula show that?

Actually that isn't true, right after Rivals added in Marsh, NU went up 1 spot to 27th. We are back at 28th today because someone moved up, not sure who. Rivals takes the top 20 recruits in calculating the points, this is done to offset the gigantic classes. Even though Marsh is a 2 Star, because NU doesn't have 20 recruits he just added points to the total. If the 3 big targets commit, then only 1 2-Star Prospect will get counted in NU's total points.

 

EZ- They count the recruit in the year they signed, not when they show up unless the young man goes JUCO and has to get re-recruited. Antonio Bell counted against 2008 even though he didn't get into the program with the 2009 early enrollees.

Before Marsh the class value was 1152, after it was 1146. In the forumula average stars play into the N value. Marsh took the average star count from 3.22 to 3.15 which cost us 7 points in the "N" value of the formula.

 

If you took out Evans, Marsh and Cotton the class would be around 1166 by my calculations, this is where the formula has a flaw IMO, it's better NOT to take 2*'s and have open spots than add them.

 

And by my calculations, if you dropped all of the 3 stars except Vestal and Moody, and then added Owa, Carnes and Cooper we would be at 1249.

 

So Rivals thinks just having Owa, Cooper and Carnes is better than the combo of Ashburn, Bell, Enunwa, Evans, Guy, Jackson, Mitchell and Okuyemi. 1 5 star and 2 4 stars is worth more than 8 3 stars. That deserves a

If you knew what the points were prior, then I will take your word for it then. What I don't get is why NU jumped up a spot from 28th to 27th if NU did indeed drop in points.

[HuskerNMO]

a few things you will notice from the script (if you can read it)

 

- top 20 players fit into the calculation, but the algorithm helps balance out classes of 13 vs classes of 20

- counts stars, not the ranking (a 4 star ranked 5.8 is the same as one ranked 6.0 in the calc)

- position ranking helps, but only to a certain point. The type of position figures into the calculation. Theyh assume there will be more quality defensive tackles needed (50) than offensive centers (10)

- A JUCO #1 5* recruit is almost the same as a Rivals 100 #1 5* except that JUCO players do not have position rankings, so assuming their stars are the same, they loose out on 8-24 points.

 

Where'd you get the info on the formulas? Marsh actually dropped our class ranking, does your formula show that?

Actually that isn't true, right after Rivals added in Marsh, NU went up 1 spot to 27th. We are back at 28th today because someone moved up, not sure who. Rivals takes the top 20 recruits in calculating the points, this is done to offset the gigantic classes. Even though Marsh is a 2 Star, because NU doesn't have 20 recruits he just added points to the total. If the 3 big targets commit, then only 1 2-Star Prospect will get counted in NU's total points.

 

EZ- They count the recruit in the year they signed, not when they show up unless the young man goes JUCO and has to get re-recruited. Antonio Bell counted against 2008 even though he didn't get into the program with the 2009 early enrollees.

Before Marsh the class value was 1152, after it was 1146. In the forumula average stars play into the N value. Marsh took the average star count from 3.22 to 3.15 which cost us 7 points in the "N" value of the formula.

 

If you took out Evans, Marsh and Cotton the class would be around 1166 by my calculations, this is where the formula has a flaw IMO, it's better NOT to take 2*'s and have open spots than add them.

 

And by my calculations, if you dropped all of the 3 stars except Vestal and Moody, and then added Owa, Carnes and Cooper we would be at 1249.

 

So Rivals thinks just having Owa, Cooper and Carnes is better than the combo of Ashburn, Bell, Enunwa, Evans, Guy, Jackson, Mitchell and Okuyemi. 1 5 star and 2 4 stars is worth more than 8 3 stars. That deserves a

If you knew what the points were prior, then I will take your word for it then. What I don't get is why NU jumped up a spot from 28th to 27th if NU did indeed drop in points.

Not sure, guessing someone lost a recruit. I know Ole Miss gained this guy yesterday to leapfrog NU

 

http://rivals.yahoo.com/nebraska/football/recruiting/player-Carlos-Thompson-91903

[HuskerNLimbo]