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Let's talk 2013...


Hercules

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we lose 7 of our top 9 defensive players as measured by tackles. We lose some key OL people. We lose our kicker/punter and long snapper. teams now know the weaknesses of our defense. These are the negatives.

 

The unknowns are: a) how will the team psyche be after a two game losing streak at the end of the last season (leaving up 70 to Wisconsin and a big loss in the bowl), b) how bad will the distractions re: the coaches be?, c) how healthy will we be, and 4) is some of the new talent coming off a redshirt and coming in as JC from this class going to compensate for what we lose (especially off the defense)?

 

The positives... a) more experience at WR, b) a 3 year starter at QB returns for a 4th, c) an easier schedule and....

 

So... I see no reason to predict any serious forward progress for next season --- we have had precious little of that over the past few years... no real, objective reason to predict so now. I also do not see a reason to assert a major regression either --- yes we lose a bunch of our D --- but their replacements have to be at least close to those exiting... at least i doubt they would be much worse. So... I would expect about the same next year as these past two years... behind 3-4 w/in the conference, behind 20-30 nationally. I'd expect again a 50/50 chance of ending ranked (best case maybe #20; worst case #35 or so). I'd expect big losses to any team that is top10 (or near top 10 caliber). Very much like the last two years.

 

There is nothing to suggest that anything will change much in the forseeable future.

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UCLA's skill players are very young, and they seem to be getting better and better. The UCLA team that beat us the second game of the year is a better squad now than they were then. Even though the game is in Lincoln, I think UCLA will be extremely tough to beat in 13'. Michigan plays very well at home under Hoke. I believe they've only lost one home game while he's been there. It will be a tough game.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say if Martinez leads the FBS for a fourth straight year in fumbles that we're looking at receiving at least three losses in 13'. I for one do not believe returning Sirles or ARod to the OL is benificial in any way. At the beginning of the season, I really thought 13' was going to be the year we made a push for a NC. After watching the implosion against Ohio State, I lost a lot of hope. Then, we go on to win several nailbiters to teams that really weren't very good. Unless we make miraculous improvement, we're probably looking at two losses or more next season.

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