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My Prediction


EZ-E

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Many people seem to think last years game was some blowout. It was not. NU squandered more chances that pretty much my buddy in our frat a long time ago.

 

This^. I know it is cliche, but we were beating UCLA with one of the worst D's we have fielded in years. We beat ourselves. Maher doesn't go all shankadelic (39 yrd ave on7), Beck doesn't pull a Wats and we stuck with the run, we win. Time of Possession was NU 22, UCLA 37. They had the ball for a whole quarter more.

 

I am really hoping that for the first time in Bo's tenure he has held something back and put BS on film. I know DB commented that Bo was vanilla as possible against Wyoming on purpose to see who grasped the concepts with little to no coaching so he knew who he could build on. I think this rang true by those who started against Southern Miss and by who played more. Sam has shown the ability to boom some punts averaging approx 46 yrds in 2 games.

 

Pass the kool aid. Bo knows D and shows it tomorrow!

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The thing I am thinking about last years UCLA game is that we had very little tape on Hundley and what Mora would do. What game tape vs Rice and somebody else, I didn't check.

 

I do think that will level the playing field, coaching wise. Bo got out coached in the Rose Bowl by a sly Jim Mora. Give Bo a year, and see what these young athletes can do on D.

 

I think this favors NU.

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Many people seem to think last years game was some blowout. It was not. NU squandered more chances that pretty much my buddy in our frat a long time ago.

 

This^. I know it is cliche, but we were beating UCLA with one of the worst D's we have fielded in years. We beat ourselves. Maher doesn't go all shankadelic (39 yrd ave on7), Beck doesn't pull a Wats and we stuck with the run, we win. Time of Possession was NU 22, UCLA 37. They had the ball for a whole quarter more.

 

I am really hoping that for the first time in Bo's tenure he has held something back and put BS on film. I know DB commented that Bo was vanilla as possible against Wyoming on purpose to see who grasped the concepts with little to no coaching so he knew who he could build on. I think this rang true by those who started against Southern Miss and by who played more. Sam has shown the ability to boom some punts averaging approx 46 yrds in 2 games.

 

Pass the kool aid. Bo knows D and shows it tomorrow!

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On the other hand, one might say (me being "one") that but for some major untimely penalties and other times when UCLA beat itself in last year's game, it would have been a double digit UCLA victory. More precisely, the Bruins outgained Nebraska by 200+ yards in the game, held the Huskers to 127 yards in the second half (while running up 280), missed two field goals in the game and fumbled the ball in the middle of an 8 yard run to the Nebraska 13 yard line after going 55 yards in the preceding 5 plays.

 

To say that Nebraska beat itself simply doesn't hold water. UCLA was simply the better team that day. Whether they will be tomorrow, I don't know; although I think they will. We'll find out in about 15 hours.

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Nice post. Well reasoned and supported. Love this kind of analysis. My day has been completely useless as well. Can't wait for my Bruins to face off against you guys again. Always love interacting with Husker fans, you guys are among the classiest and most knowledgeable in the business.

 

After reading your post, it's pretty well researched, but there are some counterpoints that I'd make, and I'd love to get your take.

 

Bored out of my mind on my day off. I have been sitting at home all day as I got everything I needed to get done today fairly quickly. So I decided to watch some of the tape from last year's UCLA game, UCLA vs Nevada, read about the basic principles of Mazzone's offense, and read about our basic concepts on defense. Basically, I have done very little all day and I have nothing better to do. So here it goes.

 

Here is why I like us to win this game.

 

Match-Ups

Their OL vs our DL

They are young. Not as young as we are, but they are also fairly inexperienced. They go (from right to left) Sophomore, Freshman, Sophomore,Junior,Sophomore. We have a lot of inexperience on our DL I get that, but it isn't like we are playing a team full of pro-bowlers.

 

I don't know that I would say the UCLA line is all that inexperienced. First, 4 of our 5 linemen are returning starters, which means that they ave 15 games worth of experience playing together - cohesiveness cannot be underrated with respect to offensive line production, in my opinion. the 3 sophomores each have 15 games of starting experience, and the center, Jake Brendel, was named first-team Freshman All-America by The Sporting News, second-team Freshman All-America by collegefootballnews.com, and honorable mention all-conference. Our right guard, Xavier Sua-Filo, is a third year starter and is a complete mauler - first team all pac-12 last season, and selected to numerous All-American lists. The lone freshman of the starting unit, Alex Redmond, had arguably the best game of the entire unit against Nevada in game 1 - watch for him and Sua-Filo pulling on running plays.

 

Their WR/Hundley vs our Secondary

Watching him last year and this year, I think that Hundley makes a lot of predetermined throws. He runs the zone read very well, but make no mistakes, he will have to go through a ton of his progressions to make plays against us. Against Nevada he was playing catch with his primary WR all game long and when the primary guy wasn't there, he'd either leave the pocket, or it would end up in the bleachers. They have some guys that we are going to have to play very well against to contain, but it will not be completely impossible. What we need to also do, is hit Hundley. Every chance we get you hit him. By the time the 3rd quarter runs around his legs are going to be too heavy to be very quick.

 

Hundley definitely locked on to a lot of receivers last year, but to be fair, he was a freshman, and let's be honest, it worked out pretty well for him. He's improved in that regard this year. That being said, In the Nevada game, he didn't have to look past his primary read very often...which brings me to the UCLA receivers. Each of our first 4 receivers are future NFL draftees. Shaq Evans is an uinderrated athlete, runs the best routes on the team, and catches everything. Devin Fuller is a slot receiver with elite burst and quickness. He has taken over the spot vacated by Fauria in a sense - gashing the defense over the middle. Where Fauria was a matchup nightmare due to his size, Fuller is a matchup nigthmare due to his quickness. UCLA will look to get him matched up on a linebacker as often as possible; if that happens, it's 8+ yards every time. Jordan Payton is a huge possession type with deceptive quickness; Stanley Jean-Baptiste would be the guy to matchup with Payton because anyone smaller is going to have a helluva time trying to defend Payton on those 8-15 yard curls, ins and outs. Finally, Devin Lucien is an athletic deep threat with ridiculous leaping ability and body control. If he's singled up on a DB with the ball in the air he's going to win that battle the majority of the time.

 

Our OL vs Their DL + Barr

We are very experienced up front and I don't think anyone would argue that point. We are really going to have to identify Anthony Barr much like we did last year in the bowl game against Georgia. We didn't do out of this world great against Georgia, but there were more than one series where we tossed them around up front and that is a defense with much more NFL talent on it than UCLA. We have the exact same guys that did that plus more depth. We will have to play very well to beat them in this area, but they wont be anything we haven't seen before.

 

You're gonna call me a homer, and that's fine, but UCLA's front 7 is as talented as Georgia's was last year. Obviously we all know Barr. Barr is a better athlete than Jarvis Jones and was just as productive last season - his first at linebacker. Eric Kendricks led the Pac-12 in tackles last year at middle linebacker and will be an all-pac-12 this season after being honorable mention last year. A future high round pick for sure. Senior Jordan Zumwalt will be an all-conference player and is a projected mid-round draftee in the 2014 draft.

 

In addition to the above, remember the following two names - Kenny Orjioke, and in particular freshman Myles Jack. Orjioke is an explosive physical specimen in the Annthony Barr mold. He entered UCLA as a 17 year old, 6'4" 210 pound frosh, and has bulked up to lean 240 pounds as a sophomore. Jack, especially, is a freak athlete; at 6'2" 235, he finished 2nd in the 200 meter and 3rd in the 400 meter at the Washington State track and field championships last year, and is probably the most athletic linebacker on the UCLA roster, Anthony Barr included.

 

On the D-line the bruins go 3 -deep at nose tackle. Senior Seali'i Epanesa is a space eater and extremely experienced. Sophomore Ellis McCarthy is a former 5-star recruit who has the size to bull rush and quickness to out-quick all but the best interior linemen. Senior Cassius Marsh has 26 starts in his career and was all Pac-12 honorable mention last season, posting 10.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks. At left defensive end is Keenan Graham, a fifth year senior who is a bit undersized in the 3-4 scheme at only 250 pounds, but is lightning quick and plays 100% all the time. Backing him up is much chronicled freshman defensive end/tackle Eddie Vanderdoes, who Scout.com scout Greg BIggins called the best defensive line prospect he's seen on the West Coast in a decade - and looked every bit the part in his first live action after sitting out much of fall camp with a back injury.

 

 

Our WRs vs Their Secondary

Ill go out and say it now, our starting three WRs will all be on an NFL roster when they are done at NU. Their guys in the secondary are brand new. That is kind of an open and shut case. As long as we take care of the football we should have zero problem throwing it around the yard tomorrow.

 

No arguments here. We are very young and inexperienced in the secondary. We will need our front 7 to get consistent pressure on Martinez to take the pressure off them. I will say though, that they are extremely athletic and talented if raw. The 2-deep boasts 5 former scout.com 4-star recruits and 1 5-star.

 

Coaching Staff vs Coaching Staff

 

Last year, you saw Mora and Mazzone use a lot of motion from the RB pre-snap and in the first half we were in man-to-man a lot. This put Will Compton or Alonzo Whaley on a slot WR or a RB. It also took one more guy out of the box and away from the football which opens up that middle zone read. So then you are playing virtually 5 on 5 and everyone knows how the zone read works where the DE is basically irrelevant. But the biggest thing that Mora wanted to do with that is to open up the middle of the field for them to hit their big TE or WR on a crossing route and get us into a situation where we had to either help up with a safety to make a tackle, or take away the crossing pattern. Once we were worried about the middle of the field, they were very successful using that pick play that we started to use last season. And I think everyone knows what happened with that in the first half.

 

In the second half, and I am going to say this in all seriousness, Bo and staff absolutely kicked their asses with some of the adjustments made. Watching and trying to figure out what we were doing defensively from my very limited football knowledge is absolutely impossible. Mora and Mazzone couldn't figure it out either. It almost looked like some sort of match-up zone but it also looked like we anticipated when they would motion and had very specific ideas on how to go about neutralizing it. We mixed up where we were bringing pressure from, but we also mixed up the timing, and down and distance of the blitzes we were running.

 

I don't think you can say that "Bo and staff absolutely kicked their asses" when the Huskers surrendered 280 yards in the second half.

 

The thing last year against UCLA that made Bo Pelini look a ton dumber than he should is our missed tackles. Honestly even if we make a handful of plays that we absolutely should have last year in the second half, Jonathon Franklin has about 80 less yards than he did. We didn't have to make Lavonte David-esque plays last year to be effective in this game at LB we just had to make the plays required of CFB players!!!!!!!!!

 

Tim Beck, and I seldom use this term, but he went Full-Watson in this game last year. Absolutely to the T went Full-Watson. Do you realize we ran less in this game last year than in any other game? Granted, Burkhead was out, but dear Lord. A zone-read from our own endzone? That is just one example, but we have no excuses for how terribly we played in the second half in every aspect of that game offensively. This is a match-up we need to circle and its Tim Beck redeeming himself vs UCLA.

 

 

 

The more I am looking into this game I really like our chances guys. If our guys go out and make the plays required of them defensively we will be fine. Be smart with the football and we win this football game. Those are the simplified keys to the game 1) Dont turn the ball over 2) Make tackles. You do those two things and we win this football game.

 

I have no prediction here. I think it will be a tough game both ways. I will say though, that there's no way UCLA is held under 30 points. Here's to a great game tomorrow!

 

NU-44

 

UCLA-28

 

 

LET THE KOOLAID FLOW!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Ill respond in bullet points

 

1) I agree. Your OL is not that inexperienced, but they are not overly experienced either. This is the perfect OL to test our young DL against. Again as I stated, it is not like we are playing 5th year seniors.

 

2) So you are agreeing that when he needs to look past his primary receiver it will be more or less unkown territory???

3) I am sorry, but Georgia had 11 guys drafted from their team last year. Elevan guys from their roster last year on defense that we played were drafted to play in the NFL. You CANNOT SAY IN THE SLIGHTEST THAT UCLA HAS 11 GUYS ON DEFENSE THAT ARE DRAFT ELIGABLE THAT WILL BE CHOSEN IN THE NFL DRAFT. If you did you would be a liar.

4) You are not very intelligent. The fact of the matter is that Bo's scheme kicked Mora's in the second half's ass plain and simple. If you rewatch the film from that tape it is absolutely apparent. But our scheme as stated was contingent on our guys making the plays required of D1 football players and they didn't.

 

Had we tackled the ball carrier in the UCLA game upon first contact 75% of the time last year Franklin has about 80 less yards than he does and UCLA ends up with about 350 yards of total offense. Not only that, but we beat you guys about 45-24.

 

If you guys were 8-6 coming into Lincoln are you as confident as you left coast surfing soccer players are??????????????

 

Not a chance.

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Wow! The level of fail in your response is impressive.

 

Ill respond in bullet points

 

1) I agree. Your OL is not that inexperienced, but they are not overly experienced either. This is the perfect OL to test our young DL against. Again as I stated, it is not like we are playing 5th year seniors.

 

2) So you are agreeing that when he needs to look past his primary receiver it will be more or less unkown territory???

No. I never said he ALWAYS locks on to receivers, I said he did it a lot last year. There were plenty of games last season in which he did a good job of going through his progressions. Is it a completely known quantity? No. But it's not completely an unknown quantity either.

 

3) I am sorry, but Georgia had 11 guys drafted from their team last year. Elevan guys from their roster last year on defense that we played were drafted to play in the NFL. You CANNOT SAY IN THE SLIGHTEST THAT UCLA HAS 11 GUYS ON DEFENSE THAT ARE DRAFT ELIGABLE THAT WILL BE CHOSEN IN THE NFL DRAFT. If you did you would be a liar.

 

Your reading comprehension skills have failed you once again. I said that UCLA's front 7 is as talented as Georgia's was last year. I didn't say the entire defense. Also, I didn't say UCLA will have 7 draft eligible defensive players drafted this year, I said that UCLA's front 7 was comparably talented. Those are two completely different statements. Also, speaking of liars, are you fabricating evidence to make your point or are just talking out of your a$$? Did you think I wouldn't verify that your claim? Georgia had 8 (not 11) players drafted; 7 from the defensive side of the ball, 4 from their front 7 (UCLA absolutely has 4 draft eligible players in their front 7 who will be drafted). Not at all saying that Georgia's 2013 draft isn't impressive, but c'mon man, making up nonsense does nothing but undermine your argument. In any event, yes, UCLA's front 7 is talented on that level. Am I "lying" when I say that? Hardly. I don't think you understand what a lie is - you can't lie about something that hasn't happened yet. Am I speculating in some cases? Yes. I thought we were just having a discussion. You can choose to believe me, or not. You've clearly chosen the latter. In that regard, here are the guys from the front 7 who will play on Sundays:

 

Anthony Barr (draft eligible - possible top 5 pick)

Erik Kendricks (draft eligible, likely to return for his senior year, but would probably be a 3rd or 4th rounder in the 2014 draft)

Jordan Zumwalt (draft eligible - likely low to mid-round pick)

Kenny Orjioke

Myles Jack

Ellis McCarthy

Cassius Marsh (draft eligible - likely low to mid-round pick)

Eddie Vanderdoes

 

I wish I could say that I'll come back and I say I told you so in May, but I almost certainly won't, so my speculation will have to suffice I suppose.

 

4) You are not very intelligent. The fact of the matter is that Bo's scheme kicked Mora's in the second half's ass plain and simple. If you rewatch the film from that tape it is absolutely apparent. But our scheme as stated was contingent on our guys making the plays required of D1 football players and they didn't.

 

It's very unfortunate that you decided to go with an ad hominem attack here, especially after I complimented your initial post for its rationale and your school for its classiness. I guess there are always exceptions.

 

Had we tackled the ball carrier in the UCLA game upon first contact 75% of the time last year Franklin has about 80 less yards than he does and UCLA ends up with about 350 yards of total offense. Not only that, but we beat you guys about 45-24.

 

If the queen had balls she'd be the king. I suppose Franklin et al. had nothing do with those missed tackles? Also, I fail to see how you can say with any level certitude that Nebraska missing fewer tackles on defense would have translated into more points on offense. Man, and to think that you accused me of wild speculation (actually, you accused me of lying, but in reality, you can't lie about something that hasn't happened yet, so I'll assume that's your ineloquent way of accusing me of speculating). UCLA's defense flat out punked the Nebraska offense in the second half last year. PERIOD.

 

If you guys were 8-6 coming into Lincoln are you as confident as you left coast surfing soccer players are??????????????

 

I'll reiterate - if the queen had balls she'd be the king. Thanks for taking an interesting discussion and injecting it with completely unnecessary vitriol. Well played.

 

Either way, here's to an exciting, injury free game. Cheers.

 

Not a chance.

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