Sizing Up Purdue--Game Discussion

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Nebraska (4-1, 1-0 Big Ten) travels to West Lafayette Saturday to take on the Purdue Boilermakers (1-4, 0-1 Big Ten). Nebraska is coming off a 39-19 victory against Illinois. Purdue is coming off of a bye week but the last time we saw the Boilermakers they were demolished by Northern Illinois, 55-24. This is the first road game for the Huskers.

 

There is a chance for some rain in West Lafayette on Saturday, but if rain does fall it will be toward the later half of the ball game. Otherwise temperatures will hover right around 70 with winds out of the South at 10mph.

 

 

Nebraska's Defense and the Big Play

 

Nebraska's defense went into their game against Illinois knowing that they had to get better. They had to be fundamentally better and they had to be mentally better. Coming into the Illinois game, the Husker D allowed 18.4% of the plays they had faced to be either rushes of 10 yards or passes of 15 yards (i.e. "big plays"). Worse yet, those 18.4 % of plays accounted for 61.7% of the total yards given up by the defense. People will point out that yards don't mean anything, but I'm a big believer that yards tell a big part of the story because you have to get yards to get points. Nebraska's young defensive group through 4 games of the season was highly susceptible to giving up the big play, and there was great concern that Illinois could exploit that and come away from Memorial Stadium with a victory.

 

That fear was legitimate. Illinois's offense through their first 4 games of the season was indeed explosive. In fact, the numbers pointed to a potential doom and gloom picture for the Husker faithful. Heading into their game against Nebraska, Illinois's offensive numbers were:

 

1914 yards, 161 points, 285 plays = 6.71 YPP | Big Plays: 57 (20%), 1300 yards (67.9%) = 22.8 YPP | Adjusted = 228 plays, 614 yards = 2.69 YPP

 

Those numbers pointed to the Illini offense being all about the big play. They had the talent and they had the scheme to exploit the defenses they played (yes, they even did so against Washington: don't let the low yardage total fool you, 238 of Illinois's 327 yards were results of big plays). With Nebraska's defense being highly vulnerable to getting busted open for big plays, Husker and Illini fans were both bracing for a high scoring battle.

 

It didn't happen. Nebraska did much better against an explosive Illinois offense. I could ramble on and on about Afalava's play, the defensive line getting pressure, our tackling in the backfield, and our ability to be opportunistic, but I'll let the numbers do the talking. You have our defensive numbers above; here are the numbers from the Illinois game:

 

402 yards, 17 points, 80 plays = 5.03 YPP | Big Plays: 9 (11.2%), 154 yards (38.3%) = 17.11 YPP | Adjusted = 71 plays, 248 yards = 3.49 YPP

 

The 5.03 YPP total was 1.68 YPP lower than Illinois's average and 1.41 YPP lower than Nebraska's defensive average. That's a huge improvement. Furthermore, When Illinois hit the big play, which was 8.8% less than their season average, it went for 5.7 YPP fewer. Nebraska's D turned Illinois into a team it was uncomfortable being. Without those big plays, Illinois didn't have the chance to finish off their drives. As a result, the Illini didn't get into the end zone until well into the 3rd quarter. It was definitely a step in the right direction for the young Nebraska defense, who dealt Illinois's offense its worst performance of the season.

 

I know Bo Pelini looks at the film and is encouraged, but not content with what he sees. I am confident that the Nebraska defense worked their asses off this week to get ready for Purdue, and have no doubt that they'll be ready to play on Saturday.

 

I'm not expecting a huge day from Purdue's offense, despite our defensive woes. Aside from their game against Northern Illinois, the Boilermaker offense has been the very definition of anemic:

 

1508 yards, 85 points, 335 plays = 4.5 YPP | Big Plays: 37 (11%), 731 yards (48.5%) = 19.76 YPP | Adjusted = 298 plays, 777 yards = 2.61 YPP

 

Purdue's offense should play right into the strengths of Nebraska's defense. Their offense has just a hard of a time generating a big play as our defense does stopping a big play from happening. However, in both of their last games, Purdue's offense and Nebraska's defense showed great improvement from their averages. Purdue's offense was more explosive than normal, Nebraska's defense was stingier than normal. So it'll be interesting to see what will happen come Saturday. My bet is that the Husker defense makes another step forward, holding Purdue to their average and further improving those big play numbers.

 

Football is obviously won on both sides of the ball, and Nebraska's offense and Purdue's defense will be the focus of my next entry.

[It'sNotAFakeID]

I nominate this for the post of the week. Excellent work!

 

Personal attack.

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Nebraska's Explosive Offense and Purdue's Defense

 

With all the talent that Nebraska had returning on offense, people were expecting a high powered offense for Nebraska. Aside from a lone hiccup against the Bruins in the second half, Nebraska's offense has been just that, putting up 37+ points per game, including a 56 and a 59 point performance against Southern Mississippi and South Dakota State. The numbers are listed below:

 

2506 yards, 212 points, 387 plays = 6.47 YPP | Big Plays = 67 (17.3%), 1320 yards (52.7%) = 19.7 YPP | Adjusted = 320 plays, 1186 yards = 3.71 YPP

 

The numbers indicate that while Nebraska loves the big play, as indicated by 17.3% of their ran plays being rushes of 10 yards or more or passes of 15 yards or more, they aren't totally reliant on the big play--the big plays only account for about 53% of the offense. Furthermore, the other 320 plays ran by the Nebraska offense average over 3.5 yards per play, meaning they can consistently move the chains. It's a very solid offense, and it is the strength of this Husker team.

 

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But will the offense hold up against Purdue's defense. The Boilermaker D started off strong, limiting both yards and big plays. But they have been gashed for both in their last couple of games against Wisconsin and Northern Illinois. The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Purdue, who has given up the following so far this season:

 

2068 yards, 184 points, 346 plays = 5.98 YPP | Big Plays = 43 (12.4%), 969 yards (46.8%) = 22.5 YPP | Adjusted = 303 plays, 1099 yards = 3.63 YPP

 

Purdue has the ball moved on them more by the sustained drives instead of one or two big plays which is indicated by a small percentage of big plays and allowing less than 50% of the yards given up by big plays account for their total defense. So it will be interesting to see how well Nebraska's offense does against what will probably be their second toughest test of the season.

 

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Game Prediction

 

If I had to put forth a guess, I would say that Nebraska will put up a solid 450 yard game where there are more sustained drives instead of highlight plays. Nebraska's offense has the luxury of being able to execute the highlight plays as well as the long sustained drives. Defensively, I think Nebraska will put pressure on the Boilermakers's freshman QB and cause him to force a lot of passes in an attempt to make up the deficit Purdue will find themselves in. We should see a similar performance from the Husker D that they had against Illinois.

 

Final Score and Stats:

 

Nebraska 38 Purdue 14

 

Nebraska's Offense: ~450 yards

 

Purdue's Offense: ~310 yards

[NUinID]

I think NU's production will be somewhere north of 500 yards and I see something more like 49-14 for a score. Purdue's yardage will be around that mark though I would be real happy to see it under 300.

[BoDoesntKnow6]

I'd like to see us come out and be aggressive in the passing game early on. If we can throw the ball successfully early on, it'll allow our running game to be that much better as the game progresses. Keep the playbook simple, but aggressive at the same time.