The awful beauty of the riots in Kiev, Ukraine

[walksalone]

^^^^^ Glad I could be one to inspire such a gif!

 

20 minutes, not bad...

[husker_99]

This is the beginning of the Soviet Union reforming.........wouldn't surprise me if this happened.

[StPaulHusker]

This is the beginning of the Soviet Union reforming.........wouldn't surprise me if this happened.

I worked out so well for them in the past........

[husker_99]

This is the beginning of the Soviet Union reforming.........wouldn't surprise me if this happened.

I worked out so well for them in the past........

they only remember the good times not the bad.

[StPaulHusker]

This is the beginning of the Soviet Union reforming.........wouldn't surprise me if this happened.

I worked out so well for them in the past........

they only remember the good times not the bad.

That's because anyone that remembers the bad can no longer be found

[Creighton Duke]

This is the beginning of the Soviet Union reforming.........wouldn't surprise me if this happened.

You mean if the pro-Western powers that be incite enough fervor that Ukraine gives in and joins the EU? Yeah, I would somewhat agree with that statement, then.

[Excel]

Hijacking this thread to make it a larger Ukraine thread and to rant:

 

The Western narrative of recent events has been really poor and over simplified. I'm not going to pretend like I fully understand the situation but the more a person reads about it the more it becomes clear that there is more to the story than how it is currently being sold. There seems to be a tendency in our media to paint it as pro-West vs. pro-Russia and in Russian media as fascists vs moderates. Both approaches are bad.

 

I think there are many factors at play: language, geography, economics, foreign policy, ethnicity, nationalism etc...to simply pick one and say "it's all language" is silly, I mean, here:

 

 

That's Kharkiv oblast in "Russian" Ukraine. So much for a clean east/west split.

 

As far as it being about a pro-Russian government forsaking EU membership to join the Russian Customs union, EU accession was never on the table. Ukraine is deeply in debt, much of it to the IMF. Ukraine tried to lean on them for more financing to keep the country afloat but the deal included a 40% hike on natural gas prices which would have been terrible for Ukrainians so they shopped around and the Russians gave them a better loan offer which included cheaper gas. While this would have pushed Ukraine more directly into Russia's sphere of influence and away from the US/Europe who control the IMF, it is hardly akin to rejoining the USSR like it seems it was painted.

 

The Russian allegation that it's just fascist hooligans wreaking havoc is also unfair. While there is an extremely nationalistic element to the rioters it's ridiculous to say they're all neo-nazis. Only a minority of the demonstrators were/are with Right Sector and the Russian media linking Right Sector to the Ukrainian Insurgent Army of WW2 and labeling that organization (the UPA) as full card carrying Nazis because they fought against the Red Army is ludicrous. Right Sector definitely seems out there and more than a little Russophobic but I think that bit is understandable with the Holodomor and all...their thinly veiled antisemitism and homophobia is less justifiable but still understandable given Ukraine's history.

 

...and now in recent days there's all kinds of poor coverage about Crimea. I won't tackle all the problems with coverage but I will say:

 

- The peninsula came under Russian control in 1783 when Catherine the Great wrested it from the Tatars and the Crimean Khanate. It only became "Ukrainian" in the 1950s when Khrushchev transferred it to the Ukrainian SSR, officially as a gift commemorating 300 years of the absorption of Ukraine into the Russian Empire, but probably also to ease in administration and shore up support from the Ukrainian branch of the party.

 

- The quest for warm weather ports, like Crimea's Sevastopol, has driven and shaped much of Russia's history and gaining/retaining them has been and will remain a vital national interest for the Russians. For context just read about the Crimean War and the series of wars (10+) the Russians fought with the Swedes to gain access to the Baltic and establish Saint Petersburg.

 

- In my estimation:

 

1. Russia probably isn't going to invade greater Ukraine or even peacefully annex Crimea. I'd imagine they'd be perfectly happy to support an autonomous yet unrecognized pro-Russian state like they do in the Caucuses with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. That said much of what they're doing now is provocative and that is probably purposeful as Ukraine reacting with violence would give them justification to act as they please.

 

2. Ukraine will probably not confront Russia over Crimea because A. Who knows how loyal and effective their military is at this point and B. It would be a rerun of Georgia 2008.

 

3. No matter what happens we, or NATO as a whole, will not react militarily for a bunch of reasons the most obvious being that it absolutely would trigger a larger war over an issue that is not terribly important to our interests. Maybe a few diplomatic snubs but that'll be it.

 

\rant

[Micheal]

So there have been some development, seems Russia is set on getting Crimea back. After installing a pro-Russian into the Crimean regional government, at gun point, who then asked Russia for help, surprise.

 

Now Ukraine soldiers are being asked to turn their weapons over to the Russian forces, luckily no shots have been fired so far.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/putin-ready-invade-ukraine-kiev-warns-war-011805827--finance.html?vp=1

[Hooked on Huskers]

Ukraine is smaller than Texass and 9 out of 10 US citizens never heard of this country until now including my wife and daughters.

 

I say no big deal, mostly media showtime !!

 

United States ........... stay away

[Micheal]

Yeah I feel the same way really, we do not need another war right now. Hopefully Putin will let everything end peacefully and stays out of the rest of the Ukraine.

[EbylHusker]

This is an important event, but one that will be handled through diplomatic and political channels by the rest of the world (including us), not through military action. But it needs to be handled.

[Excel]

1. I really doubt this will lead to a war in which we would have even the slightest possibility of becoming involved. The costs are too high, our interests too low and we would gain very little from it even if we won. If we do see some kind of organized conflict erupt it will probably be small, localized, and quick...like the end of the Prague Spring or Georgia in 2008. The OMG WW3 talk is silly.

 

2. Never heard of Ukraine? It’s not like Afghanistan was pre-9/11 or Chechnya before the Boston Bombings. It’s hardly a small or insignificant country and there’s a sizable Ukrainian-American population (~1m). No offense to Hooked on Huskers but I don’t think it’s as bad as 9/10 Americans never having heard of it...or at least I hope it’s not that bad. I know we have a reputation for being ignorant but damn. Next we’re going to find out that people have never heard of Poland.

 

3. No big deal? I think it’s a pretty big deal if only because of its broader geo-political implications and the precedent it sets.

 

In 1992 most Americans kind of closed the door on the cold war with the collapse of the Soviet Union and Yeltsin’s Russia was too busy sorting through the mess of that collapse to seriously face the West in the 90’s. In Yeltsin’s era (1992-2000) and for a bit of Putin’s early time, we saw a mass exodus of countries from Russia’s sphere of influence as they tried to align with us and Western Europe. Nine nations rose from the ashes of the Warsaw Pact and joined NATO: Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and the Czech Republic along with three former SSRs, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. That was only the military third of the equation. The same thing happened economically and politically with those same nine joining the EU.

 

Putin seems determined to stop the hemorrhaging and has made it a priority to put the squeeze on any neighbors that seek closer alignment with the west, whether politically economically or militarily and what he’s doing with Crimea is textbook. It’s like his favorite play. It goes like this:

 

1. Former Soviet Republic starts to get cozy with us or western Europe.

2. Russia tries to lure them back in using economic (energy) concessions and treaty organizations with the Customs Union as a substitute for the EU and CSTO as a substitute for NATO.

3. Nation either joins in and becomes Belarus 2.0 or resists and continues aligning with the West.

4. Russia makes some irredentist or ethnic claim and begins to support some obscure separatist movement in aforementioned country.

5. Country either tolerates the separatists or tries to suppress them, it doesn’t much matter...Russia will invade and b***slap the country back down and away from the West.

 

Examples of Russia trying to limit Western influence:

 

- Georgia, a former Soviet Republic, had an Individual Partnership Action Plan with NATO(one of the initial steps in joining), participated in the Iraq War and sought closer military ties with the US through training and equipment. The Russian supported separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia created enough turmoil in Georgia to eventually provide the justification for a Russian invasion.

 

- Moldova. Not a perfect example as it was in the early 90’s but its similar enough to be included. When the Moldavian SSR became Moldova in 1991 it quickly began to distance itself from Russia. Enter Transnistria, a sliver of Eastern Moldova with a sizable (~30%) Russian population and bam...civil conflict and Russian intervention. Who recognizes Transnistria’s sovereignty? Well pretty much just South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Strange how that stuff works. Russia still has troops there too.

 

- Kyrgyzstan. Americans open a transit center [air base] at Manas in 2001 to use as a layover station for personnel entering and exiting Afghanistan. Kyrgyzstan, like Moldova and Georgia, is a former SSR. During the tumultuous 90’s the Russians left their own airbase which wasn’t far from Manas but returned in 2003 and clamored for the Kyrgyz government to close Manas and kick out the Americans. They finally got their way recently and now want to move in to Manas on their own.

 

- Ukraine we all see what’s going on there. Ukraine is also a former SSR and, like Georiga, has sought closer ties to NATO through an Action Plan in 2002 and an intensified dialogue. We could very well end up seeing Crimea become an autonomous, unrecognized state with support from and loyalty to Russia much like we see in Moldova and Georgia.

 

So I guess the larger picture I’m trying to paint here...the point I’m trying to make.... is that in the 1990’s we saw ourselves as top dogs, a lone hegemonic superpower. That era is over, if it ever existed in the first place. We all know that China is rising but at the same time Russia is trying to reassert itself on at least the regional scene and it’s done pretty well. When John McCain visits Moldova and declares that Russian troops are illegally occupying Moldovan and Georgian Sovereign territory in violation of fundamental norms of international behavior and that they should withdraw and then we get pictures like these out of Georgia:

 

 

 

 

Georgians protesting Russia

 

Georgian in knockoff MARPAT uniform

 

 

Georgian POWs in MARPAT

 

 

Georgian AT4 captured by Russian Troops

 

 

Georgian M16 captured by Russian Troops

 

More captured M16s

 

Captured Georgian M16s and M249s burned by Russians

 

Captured Humvee (this one is actually US property, not sold to the Georgians)

 

Russian Soldiers showing off captured American made equipment to civilians

 

 

 

 

 

... we (US/Western Europe/NATO) really lose a lot of credibility. If we're going to say that we support Ukranian/Modlovan/Georgian/whomever's sovereignty then we need to actually stand on it. Putin has and will continue to call our bluff every damn time (can include Syria in that) and so far he's won every showdown. Ukraine is just another, and now the biggest, of these showdowns. What happens in Crimea in the coming weeks, combined with the Olympics, will kind of signal that Russia is officially "back" with Putin at the helm. If he gets what he wants in Ukraine, against NATO's stated desires then NATO will look weak and it will set the tone for future relations.

 

4. Completely unrelated but enjoy this ad for the Ukrainian Army, the most Eastern European thing you will ever see.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cH_E6YSQqTo

[huzkerbob]

9 out of 10 americans don't know their ass from a hole in the ground, that doesn't mean that the Ukrain is irrelevant just that most of the U.S. is ignorant as hell. I don't believe we should be invoved militarily for many reasons. First being that we haven't proven to be very damn good at it, and two we have far to many problems in our own country that are being willfuly ignored. Sorry Hooked on Huskers but the fact that your wife and daughters have never heard of the Ukraine or the Crimea speaks less about their relevance than it does the vacuum that far to many americans are living in today.

[HSKR]

I was checking out Ukraine on Google maps in particular Cremea and noticed a large amount of center pivot irrigation. In fact, I found that there are four Valley dealers in Ukraine. Thought that was an interesting Nebraska connection.

[tschu]

Thank God that this didn't happen while Bush was President. We truly could have ended up in WW3