Rutgers

[Undone]

It's a myth? So you're saying there wouldn't be any statistical correlation between teams who dominate time of possession and their win percentages, brophog?

[brophog]

It's a myth? So you're saying there wouldn't be any statistical correlation between teams who dominate time of possession and their win percentages, brophog?

Reverse causation in this case.

[brophog]

I want to expand on this topic

 

 

 

It's a myth? So you're saying there wouldn't be any statistical correlation between teams who dominate time of possession and their win percentages, brophog?

Reverse causation in this case.

I want to expand on this response in case anyone doesn't understand what I mean.

 

TOP does correlate with winning, quite well in fact. The question is, does high TOP cause you to win? The answer is generally no. Being in the state of winning is what often causes high TOP. Therefore we say this is a reverse causal relationship.

 

Two quick scenarios can show why this is the case in alternate possession games. Note that what TOP really means in a game with a fixed time is how many possessions each team will get.

 

Scenario 1:

You're Team A and I'm Team B. Team A scores 75% of the time. Team B scores 50% of the time. We each get an equal number of possessions. Who wins given each of the following number of possessions?

8, 10, 12

 

The Answer: Team A has a high chance of winning every time. TOP did not effect this case.

 

Scenario 2:

Same setup as before, but now Team B finds itself up 2 scores. Who wins given each of the following number of remaining possessions?

1, 2, 3

 

The Answer: It varies. The more remaining possessions left in the game, the higher the likelihood that Team A's higher efficiency overcomes the deficit. If Team B can hold onto the ball, say by running the ball (also a common reverse causation stat), then Team B can limit the number of remaining possessions and increase the chance of winning the game. TOP has an impact in this case.

 

The important stat here is not TOP. Team B could have led that stat in both cases. What is important is efficiency. In case 2, some event changed the relative efficiencies. Maybe it was a pick 6 or a kickoff return. Once up two scores, and therefore in the condition of winning, does TOP matter.

 

Efficiency is the name of the game in alternate possession sports. This is why when I talk about a team I often use the yards per play differential stat. The difference between your yards gained and your opponents is an example of efficiency.