Athlon: Ranking Roster Talent by Recruiting Classes

cm husker said:

Do they indicate whether they (or 247) do any weighting based on class year? For example, a senior class ranked 15th may offset a freshman class ranked 30th in a way that the weighted average strength of roster is, say, 18th?

My chief concern in all of these rankings, though, is the false perception created by the sequential rankings. For example, a spread of 10 points may separate 25th from 35th, but 100 points may separate 1st from 5th.

It's all pretty amusing stuff... kind of like all rankings systems, it's really about click throughs from fans, and for CFB, monetizing the off season.

Click to expand...

Mavric said:

This article was linked in another thread but I think it's interesting to look at as a kind of preview for the year. They used the average class ranking on the 247 Composite over the last five years to rank the teams. 247 also does one where they look at the talent actually on the roster which helps adjust for attrition and transfers so I think that's a little bit better look but this gives a decent idea when trying to compare "talent."

For our purposes, I'll list the Huskers and this year's opponents (5 year average)

2 - Ohio State (4.2)

19 - Oregon (19.4)

29 - Nebraska (28.4)

43 - Wisconsin (41.6)

44 - Maryland (42.0)

48 - Indiana (50.8)

50 - Northwestern (51.8)

52 - Iowa (52.6)

56 - Minnesota (58.6)

58 - Illinois (60.8)

64 - Purdue (65.0)

Not Listed - Fresno State, Wyoming

Click to expand...

Husker Psycho said:

Mavric said:

This article was linked in another thread but I think it's interesting to look at as a kind of preview for the year. They used the average class ranking on the 247 Composite over the last five years to rank the teams. 247 also does one where they look at the talent actually on the roster which helps adjust for attrition and transfers so I think that's a little bit better look but this gives a decent idea when trying to compare "talent."

For our purposes, I'll list the Huskers and this year's opponents (5 year average)

2 - Ohio State (4.2)

19 - Oregon (19.4)

29 - Nebraska (28.4)

43 - Wisconsin (41.6)

44 - Maryland (42.0)

48 - Indiana (50.8)

50 - Northwestern (51.8)

52 - Iowa (52.6)

56 - Minnesota (58.6)

58 - Illinois (60.8)

64 - Purdue (65.0)

Not Listed - Fresno State, Wyoming

Click to expand...

Yep, that looks about right.

In the B1G... well... the top 4 teams are all in the East division and the bottom 5 teams are all in the west division. Hmmm...

Click to expand...

NUance said:

cm husker said:

Do they indicate whether they (or 247) do any weighting based on class year? For example, a senior class ranked 15th may offset a freshman class ranked 30th in a way that the weighted average strength of roster is, say, 18th?

My chief concern in all of these rankings, though, is the false perception created by the sequential rankings. For example, a spread of 10 points may separate 25th from 35th, but 100 points may separate 1st from 5th.

It's all pretty amusing stuff... kind of like all rankings systems, it's really about click throughs from fans, and for CFB, monetizing the off season.

Click to expand...

Ha ha! That would be more accurate. But no. They don't even account for attrition in this article. (Mavric says another article does, though.)

btw, Accounting for attrition would make this ranking *much* more believable. I mean, think about tOSU. Their nine guys who declared early for the 2016 NFL draft count against them in this article. That's just absurd.

Click to expand...

TGHusker said:

Husker Psycho said:

Mavric said:

This article was linked in another thread but I think it's interesting to look at as a kind of preview for the year. They used the average class ranking on the 247 Composite over the last five years to rank the teams. 247 also does one where they look at the talent actually on the roster which helps adjust for attrition and transfers so I think that's a little bit better look but this gives a decent idea when trying to compare "talent."

For our purposes, I'll list the Huskers and this year's opponents (5 year average)

2 - Ohio State (4.2)

19 - Oregon (19.4)

29 - Nebraska (28.4)

43 - Wisconsin (41.6)

44 - Maryland (42.0)

48 - Indiana (50.8)

50 - Northwestern (51.8)

52 - Iowa (52.6)

56 - Minnesota (58.6)

58 - Illinois (60.8)

64 - Purdue (65.0)

Not Listed - Fresno State, Wyoming

Click to expand...

Yep, that looks about right.

In the B1G... well... the top 4 teams are all in the East division and the bottom 5 teams are all in the west division. Hmmm...

Click to expand...

Yep, getting to be like Big 12 North. We need OU to join the league and become a west div member. That would restore the real day after thanksgiving game and bring back a quality rival and build up the west - NU, OU, Wisc and occasionally Iowa or NW would bring some respect to the division. Of course I'd like Kansas to join for basketball but you know it is a negative for football. I'd even take Mo back into our division. The BG 10 got Rutgers and Maryland for the TV sets but they bring very little else. We need to get some more quality football teams in the league and into our schedule. Besides OU, I'm not sure who could come into the west div and be of help to beef it up. I like Oklahoma State, living here in Tulsa, but I don't see the conf offering them a spot (I'd love to see OU and OSU join the west - so I can see the Husker locally again). Any ACC type team would go to the east and then they would push Indiana over to our side - which isn't much. Maybe Norte Dame could come to the west- but I think they are dead set against joining the Big 10. I don't see the conference raiding the deep south - GA Tech for example.

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Mavric said:

NUance said:

cm husker said:

Do they indicate whether they (or 247) do any weighting based on class year? For example, a senior class ranked 15th may offset a freshman class ranked 30th in a way that the weighted average strength of roster is, say, 18th?

My chief concern in all of these rankings, though, is the false perception created by the sequential rankings. For example, a spread of 10 points may separate 25th from 35th, but 100 points may separate 1st from 5th.

It's all pretty amusing stuff... kind of like all rankings systems, it's really about click throughs from fans, and for CFB, monetizing the off season.

Click to expand...

Ha ha! That would be more accurate. But no. They don't even account for attrition in this article. (Mavric says another article does, though.)

btw, Accounting for attrition would make this ranking *much* more believable. I mean, think about tOSU. Their nine guys who declared early for the 2016 NFL draft count against them in this article. That's just absurd.

Click to expand...

Yeah, 247 did their own last year that was just the guys currently on the roster. I haven't seen that for this year but I'm assuming they'll do that again.

If I get bored tonight I might dump that data into a spreadsheet so I can weight the classes because that would be interesting to see if it changes much. Not sure how to weight them though. Even the oldest class should probably be devalued some because the only guys left from that class would be fifth-year seniors so most of the best players in that class are already gone. And not a lot of this year's freshman would be major contributors.

Off the cuff, I'd guess something like 18-26-24-20-12 would probably be about right.

Click to expand...

Husker Psycho said:

Mavric said:

NUance said:

cm husker said:

Do they indicate whether they (or 247) do any weighting based on class year? For example, a senior class ranked 15th may offset a freshman class ranked 30th in a way that the weighted average strength of roster is, say, 18th?

My chief concern in all of these rankings, though, is the false perception created by the sequential rankings. For example, a spread of 10 points may separate 25th from 35th, but 100 points may separate 1st from 5th.

It's all pretty amusing stuff... kind of like all rankings systems, it's really about click throughs from fans, and for CFB, monetizing the off season.

Click to expand...

Ha ha! That would be more accurate. But no. They don't even account for attrition in this article. (Mavric says another article does, though.)

btw, Accounting for attrition would make this ranking *much* more believable. I mean, think about tOSU. Their nine guys who declared early for the 2016 NFL draft count against them in this article. That's just absurd.

Click to expand...

Yeah, 247 did their own last year that was just the guys currently on the roster. I haven't seen that for this year but I'm assuming they'll do that again.

If I get bored tonight I might dump that data into a spreadsheet so I can weight the classes because that would be interesting to see if it changes much. Not sure how to weight them though. Even the oldest class should probably be devalued some because the only guys left from that class would be fifth-year seniors so most of the best players in that class are already gone. And not a lot of this year's freshman would be major contributors.

Off the cuff, I'd guess something like 18-26-24-20-12 would probably be about right.

Click to expand...

The Elite Player Metric has been 100% accurate for the last 12 years in a row... and it doesn't take any of that other stuff into account.

Click to expand...

RedDenver said:

Husker Psycho said:

Mavric said:

NUance said:

cm husker said:

Do they indicate whether they (or 247) do any weighting based on class year? For example, a senior class ranked 15th may offset a freshman class ranked 30th in a way that the weighted average strength of roster is, say, 18th?

My chief concern in all of these rankings, though, is the false perception created by the sequential rankings. For example, a spread of 10 points may separate 25th from 35th, but 100 points may separate 1st from 5th.

It's all pretty amusing stuff... kind of like all rankings systems, it's really about click throughs from fans, and for CFB, monetizing the off season.

Click to expand...

Ha ha! That would be more accurate. But no. They don't even account for attrition in this article. (Mavric says another article does, though.)

btw, Accounting for attrition would make this ranking *much* more believable. I mean, think about tOSU. Their nine guys who declared early for the 2016 NFL draft count against them in this article. That's just absurd.

Click to expand...

Yeah, 247 did their own last year that was just the guys currently on the roster. I haven't seen that for this year but I'm assuming they'll do that again.

If I get bored tonight I might dump that data into a spreadsheet so I can weight the classes because that would be interesting to see if it changes much. Not sure how to weight them though. Even the oldest class should probably be devalued some because the only guys left from that class would be fifth-year seniors so most of the best players in that class are already gone. And not a lot of this year's freshman would be major contributors.

Off the cuff, I'd guess something like 18-26-24-20-12 would probably be about right.

Click to expand...

The Elite Player Metric has been 100% accurate for the last 12 years in a row... and it doesn't take any of that other stuff into account.

Click to expand...

100% accurate at predicting what?

Click to expand...

cm husker said:

A logic failure, RD.

Click to expand...

Husker Psycho said:

cm husker said:

A logic failure, RD.

Click to expand...

What are you afraid of ? Why does reality scare you so much ?

Click to expand...

cm husker said:

Husker Psycho said:

cm husker said:

A logic failure, RD.

Click to expand...

What are you afraid of ? Why does reality scare you so much ?

Click to expand...

Nuclear war.

And major logic failures that confuse components of past results with necessary elements of future results.

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