FiveThirtyEight did some in-depth analysis. NFL based so it might not translate to college 100% but pretty interesting.
When Should You Go For Two?
- Thread starter Mavric
- Start date
The Big Nebrowski
Banned
In the pros especially, since the games are usually close, I think the deal is that you almost always take the points you can get, like the PAT or FG, don't go for 2 or go for it on 4th down: take the PAT or FG. The only time to go for 2 is late in a game when you basically have to. Almost nvr go for 2 when you are ahead.
Don't be a "hero", take the high % pts.
Don't be a "hero", take the high % pts.
B.B. Hemingway
All-American
If I was an NFL coach, and I had a good-to-great QB (Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Ryan, Big Ben, etc.), I'd go for 2 most of the time.
The Big Nebrowski
Banned
Askin' for trouble there. One of the best ways to get fired if you did that. They've done studies, especially in the pros, you take the PAT or FG nearly 100% of the time. Odds are not in your fav going for 2 or going for 4th down(when you can kick the FG). Pts are precious in the NFL.
Last edited by a moderator:
Nebfanatic
All-American
you just know everything don't you. Analytics have shown going for 2 is becoming more and more rewarding since they've moved back the PAT.
The Big Nebrowski
Banned
No, my friend, analytics have not shown that, and I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "rewarding". It's more rewarding to get the PAT 96% of the time(down from 99% since they moved it back) than to get the 2, at best, ~40% of the time--and that's on a good day. It's more rewarding, especially for the bosses, who, for one, don't like paying a kicker big bucks to ride the pine 99% of the time instead of the usual 95% of the time when he actually has to "work". You win more games, everybody makes more scratch, so everybody's happier. Botched 2 pters wreak all kinds of havoc on team psychy, from top to bottom, to the fanbase.
Go ahead, if you want to get fired as an HC just do that. And while you're at it, go for onsides kicks everytime too.
2 pt convo is a low % play. Why? Because the D doesn't have much field to cover. Plus, there is higher probability of the D getting the ball and taking it the other way for points than doing so via blocked kick.
Pro kickers can kick it from 60 with their eyes closed, that's why they make the big $--you take the point.
Last edited by a moderator:
Nebfanatic
All-American
that's funny because kickers are missing an all time high number and percentage of extra points. I'm not saying go for 2 every time and I definitely never said anything about onside kicks but there are alot of scenarios where going for 2 going to be more advantageous than trying for 1
The Big Nebrowski
Banned
As yet, I haven't seen any pro coaches going in that direction. If the kicker misses too many in a season, he gets fired and they bring in the next guy, which is still the better option that going for 2 when you don't have to.
After a long successful scoring drive for 6, if you miss the 2, well, it's a downer psychologically, where getting the easy 1 feels better, you don't get the downer.
Same thing w driving the field to FG range. If you go for it on 4th and don't get it, its a big downer, bad momentum shift. You take the 3, even if you are 3 TDs down and plenty of time in the game.
Bielema was singing the praises of analytics after he won a game this year. Next week he gets his butt kicked by Aub and no word about analytics. Analytics aren't everything.
Last edited by a moderator:
B.B. Hemingway
All-American
"go for the onside kick every time" ..... You seem to have the analytics hammered down, so you should know that converting a two-point play is much more likely to be successful then an onside kick.
"Pro kickers can kick it from 60 with their eyes close" ..... no they cant......
Last edited by a moderator:
The Big Nebrowski
Banned
I was being facetious in the 1st eg and using hyperbole in the 2nd, to make my...point.
B.B. Hemingway
All-American
ColoradoHusk
Heisman Trophy Winner
NFL coaches kick the FG way too often. When playing teams like the Patriots, Falcons, Packers, Cowboys, and other high power offenses, it's a failed possession for the opponent if the opponent has to settle for a FG. When going against high powered offenses in both the college and pro game, you have to be thinking to score TD's, not FG's.