The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election

[Nebfanatic]

8 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

The problem is it's not evenly distributed geographically. A lot of that 54% comes from blue areas. And there are a lot of likely Trump voters in places like Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania.

I'm not as worried about those states as others. Obviously it will depend on the nominee but you can look at polling in each of those states specifically and it doesn't look good for Trump. The only state he is even in is Ohio. In all 3 of those other states he trails Biden and Sanders in head to head polling, by pretty wide margins in Pennsylvania and Michigan. 

 

And while polling may be coming from blue areas within those states, I think it underestimates dem leads anyway. As we have talked about, the young voter block is less polled but far more progressive. 

[knapplc]

9 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

The problem is it's not evenly distributed geographically. A lot of that 54% comes from blue areas. And there are a lot of likely Trump voters in places like Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania.

 

Yes. I've already seen projections where he again loses the popular vote but gets reelected by the Electoral College.

[knapplc]

On 1/9/2020 at 3:30 PM, knapplc said:

Sen. Booker fails to mention the other, more glaring problem - people don't want to vote for him.

 

 

 

 

It's official.

 

 

 

[TGHusker]

This article/opinion piece states the case why Republicans should cross over in open primary states to vote for Biden.  He'd be

the 'easiest pill to swallow'.   

 

 

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/opinion/article/The-Republican-case-for-Biden-14970558.php

P

Quote

 

lenty of Republicans see President Donald Trump's moral and political failures clearly. About 10 percentof Republican voters believe that Trump should be removed from office. Those voters will be up for grabs in the 2020 election. They should be relieved that Biden is the Democratic front-runner right now.

 

 

For one thing, Biden surely would score high on the "have a beer with the guy" electability test. Biden doesn't even drink beer, or any alcohol, but he's still able to inspire a sense of collegial good feeling. I saw as much at the November 2006Return Day ceremony, a post-election tradition in Sussex County, Delaware, when politicians from both sides gather and literally bury a hatchet to symbolize goodwill. Lots of beer is consumed on Return Day, but one of the most convivial participants I saw was the teetotal Biden. Washington could use a few more old-school politicians who understand that spirit of bipartisanship.

 

For some Democrats, the idea of wooing dissatisfied Republicans is nauseating. Yet the best outcome for the country may require the left-of-center to find common ground with the right-of-center, especially on trade, immigration and foreign policy. The surest way for that to happen is for Biden to win the Democratic nomination and the White House.

Trump has bludgeoned free-trade Republicans into temporary submission, but it's far from clear that they've forgotten basic economics. They may have lost some enthusiasm for trade deals, but the GOP wasn't the party of tariffs before Trump, and it won't be after Trump, when business interests can be expected to reassert their party influence.

 

But Republicans weren't alone in adjusting to Trumpian trade politics: Free trade has achieved record popularity among Democrats. It's possible that the end of the Trump era will see Democrats revert to their usual trade-wariness; most of the Democratic presidential contenders don't seem to match their constituents' enthusiasm for free trade. But the beginning of a Biden presidency could present a brief, shining opportunity for trade liberalization. He's certainly no fan of Trump's tariffs.

Immigration policy presents another opening. The ugliness of the Trump administration's immigration policies might appeal to some parts of the GOP, but the president appears to be losing some Republicans on the issue. Between December 2018 and July 2019, for example, Republican support for accepting refugees from Central America climbed 10 points, to 24 percent, according to Gallup. Trump's anti-immigrant message works with his base, but it cuts against overall trends: Since 1999, Gallup says, Americans' support for keeping the immigration level the same or increasing it has climbed from 51 percent to 64 percent, with the biggest jump - from 10 percent to 27 percent - in support for raising the immigration numbers.

On immigration, as on trade, big business will push the Republican Party toward compromise. Biden, who released a detailed plan for immigration reform in December, would no doubt be ready to make a deal to finally modernize a dysfunctional system.

Foreign policy, too, could be a strong point for Biden among disaffected Republicans. In the fall, Trump's foreign policy was finally losing Republican support. That may rebound, temporarily, in the wake of the U.S. drone strike on Iranian Maj. Gen.Qasem Soleimani in Iraq, but the past several days have made clearer than ever that there is no Trump foreign policy doctrine. There is, as ever, merely the cult of Trump.

Meanwhile, Biden has been measured and thoughtful in his response to developments in the Middle East. If he continues to show strength - real moral strength, not performative macho aggression - on foreign policy, that too would appeal to Republicans.

Countless Americans today are desperate for reconciliation and a semblance of normalcy. I've never voted for a Democrat, but Biden offers the possibility of just such a political recovery from the nightmare of the past few years. I invite my fellow restless Republicans to join me. After Nov. 3, the country could have a national Return Day to bury the hatchet and maybe raise a beer to toast the arrival of the post-Trump era.

 

 

[Ratt Mhule]

1 hour ago, TGHusker said:

This article/opinion piece states the case why Republicans should cross over in open primary states to vote for Biden.  He'd be

the 'easiest pill to swallow'.   

 

 

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/opinion/article/The-Republican-case-for-Biden-14970558.php

P

 

Well I mean Biden is a republican so it would be easy for republicans to swallow. Hes a war hawk. He wants to cut social security, medicare and medicaid. He created the 1994 crime bill. He made it so students cant declare bankruptcy on student loans. He voted for the disastrous trade deals that shipped 4 million jobs to other countries. Hes the perfect republican disguised as a democrat. 

[Ratt Mhule]

Bernie is in first place! Hurry we need to make s#!t up to turn people against him. None of the “sources” were actually in this meeting. Sanders denied it and Warrens team declined to comment. Is there no such thing as journalistic integrity anymore? Its pretty well known that he asked Warren to run in 2016 and the only reason he ran is because she wouldnt. 
 

 

[TGHusker]

1 hour ago, Frott Scost said:

Well I mean Biden is a republican so it would be easy for republicans to swallow. Hes a war hawk. He wants to cut social security, medicare and medicaid. He created the 1994 crime bill. He made it so students cant declare bankruptcy on student loans. He voted for the disastrous trade deals that shipped 4 million jobs to other countries. Hes the perfect republican disguised as a democrat. 

So would your rather have Trump or Biden???

[Ratt Mhule]

4 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

So would your rather have Trump or Biden???

Neither. And I think republicans should stay out of the dem primary. 
 

If democrats choose Biden then Ill vote for him over Trump. 

[TGHusker]

19 minutes ago, Frott Scost said:

Neither. And I think republicans should stay out of the dem primary. 
 

If democrats choose Biden then Ill vote for him over Trump. 

Well we got Trump because the Dems voted for him in all of those early cross over primaries - thinking they would derail the other guys from getting the nomination. Well that plan worked well.   It gave Trump a lot of momentum in those early states.  Personally, I don't like open primaries because it makes party 'MEMBERSHIP' of little value.  The GOP should elect their guy/gal and the Dems elect theirs - then that would be a truer sense of each party's value system. 

23 minutes ago, Frott Scost said:

Neither. And I think republicans should stay out of the dem primary. 
 

If democrats choose Biden then Ill vote for him over Trump. 

And by the way, I don't think Biden will win the nomination.   

[Ratt Mhule]

9 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Well we got Trump because the Dems voted for him in all of those early cross over primaries - thinking they would derail the other guys from getting the nomination. Well that plan worked well.   It gave Trump a lot of momentum in those early states.  Personally, I don't like open primaries because it makes party 'MEMBERSHIP' of little value.  The GOP should elect their guy/gal and the Dems elect theirs - then that would be a truer sense of each party's value system. 

And by the way, I don't think Biden will win the nomination.   

Its either him or Bernie at this point. Id say 60-40 Biden at this point. 
 

I never heard this about the GOP primary and if its true I would say that is f#&%ed up and I agree that it should only be open to party members and independents. 

[knapplc]

Even *if* Bernie told Warren that he doesn't think a woman could be elected... that's not him saying he doesn't want it, or wouldn't vote for a woman personally. I would read that as, at worst, a critique of the electorate, not some position Bernie personally holds.

 

That is such a non-story. It reeks of fake news. 

[TGHusker]

8 minutes ago, knapplc said:

Even *if* Bernie told Warren that he doesn't think a woman could be elected... that's not him saying he doesn't want it, or wouldn't vote for a woman personally. I would read that as, at worst, a critique of the electorate, not some position Bernie personally holds.

 

That is such a non-story. It reeks of fake news. 

agreed - I think Bernie would be all in favor of Warren if it wasn't him on the ticket.  --  the critique of the electorate is spot on also

[TGHusker]

14 minutes ago, Frott Scost said:

Its either him or Bernie at this point. Id say 60-40 Biden at this point. 
 

I never heard this about the GOP primary and if its true I would say that is f#&%ed up and I agree that it should only be open to party members and independents. 

I understand that several of the earlier states had a lot of Dems crossing over as well as independents voting for Trump.  Rubio and others had complained about it also as I recall --- but my recaller may not always be spot on.   

[BigRedBuster]

52 minutes ago, Frott Scost said:

Neither. And I think republicans should stay out of the dem primary. 

If you think just the Republicans affect the Dem primaries....and it doesn't happen the other way, I got an island in the pacific I'll sell to you cheap.

 

Yes....I did the "both sides" here...so deal with it.

Personally, I think both should stay out of the other one's business till the general election.

[Moiraine]

2 hours ago, TGHusker said:

Well we got Trump because the Dems voted for him in all of those early cross over primaries - thinking they would derail the other guys from getting the nomination. Well that plan worked well.

 

 

Do you have evidence for this claim?

 

It would be interesting if true, but it’s the first I’m hearing of it. I don’t doubt there were a handful of voters who did this, but I highly doubt we “got Trump because the Dems voted for him.” In fact I doubt it was much if a factor at all.