The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election

[TGHusker]

15 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

Trump could point to Italy, Spain, the UK and say 'look what I did. I kept us from that!

Trump still points to other countries and says he has done it the best  - he is delusional 

[TGHusker]

Axios gives 4-5 different pathways for Biden to win the electoral college.  The easiest  path is for him to secure Mich, Penn, and Arizona.     Or he could win Florida and any one of the other battle ground states.   It illustrates that the presidency can be won by concentrating on just a few handful of states.  We have pockets of polarization in which we know what states will for sure vote red and which ones will for sure vote blue.  

 

https://www.axios.com/doug-sosnik-electoral-realignment-trump-biden-c4efd9cd-ba41-4f75-ac12-412ca2e6f0ba.html

[Nebfanatic]

8 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Trump still points to other countries and says he has done it the best  - he is delusional 

Right but if it were actually true I think he would be tough to beat in the election. Most people see through that lie and it only sinks him further

[teachercd]

59 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

I don't even think he had to handle it perfectly but definitely better than now would have been good. I think if it generally seemed like he was listening to the experts and doing everything he could as soon as he could that would be enough. Crisis bump is a real thing and I think he could have held onto it though the election had this been approached differently. And as you well know, I really dislike the guy and think he is an awful president. 

Yeah, you could be right.  I mean, if he had the other big 3 rocking (Market, Economy and Unemployment) and if he handled the virus better or like you said, by letting the experts do their job, he is getting another 4 years.  I think he took a gamble that he didn't need to take, he wanted to be the Macho President.  

[knapplc]

This will sell well with Trump's fact-averse supporters. They're just going to make crap up and, because it's on the internet, people will have something to point to.

 

Kelly-Anne's "alternative facts" as a website.

 

 

[Danny Bateman]

3 hours ago, TGHusker said:

Pretty amazing what the Cult members believe. They (Eric Trump specifically) still are claiming this is one Democratic hoax to steal the election from tRump.    The below is wrong on sooooo many levels - it just boggles the mind with the level of victim hood, self-centerness, blind loyalty, and ignorance at play here.

https://www.lmtonline.com/news/article/Eric-Trump-claims-coronavirus-is-Democratic-hoax-15276534.php

 

 

Ironically, they're guilty of this themselves. Remember when "the caravan" was the central issues for Republicans as they tried to keep control of Congress in 2018?

 

Did you ever hear one more word uttered about it after they got crushed and lost the House?

 

All the Trump family does is lay their own sins on other people.

[Danny Bateman]

2 hours ago, TGHusker said:

Axios gives 4-5 different pathways for Biden to win the electoral college.  The easiest  path is for him to secure Mich, Penn, and Arizona.     Or he could win Florida and any one of the other battle ground states.   It illustrates that the presidency can be won by concentrating on just a few handful of states.  We have pockets of polarization in which we know what states will for sure vote red and which ones will for sure vote blue.  

 

https://www.axios.com/doug-sosnik-electoral-realignment-trump-biden-c4efd9cd-ba41-4f75-ac12-412ca2e6f0ba.html

 

Thanks for that TGH. I agree with most of his analysis.

 

His blurb on Biden's best chance to the White House:

 

Quote

The bottom line: Biden's best strategy:

1. Make putting Michigan out of reach for Trump the top priority.
2. Lock up Pennsylvania.
3. Prioritize winning Arizona, Maine-02 and Nebraska-02.
4. Focus remaining resources on Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida.

 

Absolutely agree. MI is his strongest Rust Belt state and Pennsylvania is second so lots of energy should go to expanding operations there.

 

After that Arizona may be more favorable than Wisconsin at this point which is kind of crazy. But peeling off those districts is also a strong possibility. Internal polling for Kara Eastman had her narrowly leading Bacon with Biden up something like nine points on Trump in CD-02. If he wins MI/PA, Omaha and Maine-02 he's the next president.

 

I also think the others are Biden's strongest swing states but not as likely.

[TGHusker]

1 hour ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Ironically, they're guilty of this themselves. Remember when "the caravan" was the central issues for Republicans as they tried to keep control of Congress in 2018?

 

Did you ever hear one more word uttered about it after they got crushed and lost the House?

 

All the Trump family does is lay their own sins on other people.

My old caravan blew its head gasket  -  oh wrong caravan.    Well I guess that fear mongering caravan thing didn't work so well for trump and the GOP. 

[TGHusker]

3 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Thanks for that TGH. I agree with most of his analysis.

 

His blurb on Biden's best chance to the White House:

 

 

Absolutely agree. MI is his strongest Rust Belt state and Pennsylvania is second so lots of energy should go to expanding operations there.

 

After that Arizona may be more favorable than Wisconsin at this point which is kind of crazy. But peeling off those districts is also a strong possibility. Internal polling for Kara Eastman had her narrowly leading Bacon with Biden up something like nine points on Trump in CD-02. If he wins MI/PA, Omaha and Maine-02 he's the next president.

 

I also think the others are Biden's strongest swing states but not as likely.

Yes, I agreed wt that assessment also. Amazing how Arizona has swung around and is in play this year.

And tRump barely won Florida last time.  There is polling out that that seniors (think Florida snow birds) are growing more and more discontent wt Trump. I would not be surprised one bit if Florida goes for Biden and Biden is 'one of them' - old and crusty enough to be liked.  If Florida goes blue, it is all over for Trump and hopefully we can bury trumpism with it.

[Danny Bateman]

4 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Yes, I agreed wt that assessment also. Amazing how Arizona has swung around and is in play this year.

And tRump barely won Florida last time.  There is polling out that that seniors (think Florida snow birds) are growing more and more discontent wt Trump. I would not be surprised one bit if Florida goes for Biden and Biden is 'one of them' - old and crusty enough to be liked.  If Florida goes blue, it is all over for Trump and hopefully we can bury trumpism with it.

 

Trump making a bunch of attacks against Biden explicitly about his age and mental acuity while also appearing willing to toss seniors into the furnace to power the economy is a heck of a one-two punch turning them off.

 

You're right - if Biden can tip Florida he needs any other one swing state and he's won. Assuming Dems keep states they won last time like Nevada, Minnesota and NH, of course.

[knapplc]

2 hours ago, knapplc said:

This will sell well with Trump's fact-averse supporters. They're just going to make crap up and, because it's on the internet, people will have something to point to.

 

Kelly-Anne's "alternative facts" as a website.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UHHHHH... This is apparently a parody website making fun of something Joe Biden said.

 

Is this one of the 20 "lines of attack" they polled and found unuseful? 

 

 

 

[knapplc]

"He will tweet instead of lead."

 

 

 

 

[DevoHusker]

1 hour ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Ironically, they're guilty of this themselves. Remember when "the caravan" was the central issues for Republicans as they tried to keep control of Congress in 2018?

 

Did you ever hear one more word uttered about it after they got crushed and lost the House?

 

All the Trump family does is lay their own sins on other people.

 

yep, both sides often deploy the "look over here" method of distraction...

[RedDenver]

31 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

Thanks for that TGH. I agree with most of his analysis.

 

His blurb on Biden's best chance to the White House:

 

 

Absolutely agree. MI is his strongest Rust Belt state and Pennsylvania is second so lots of energy should go to expanding operations there.

 

After that Arizona may be more favorable than Wisconsin at this point which is kind of crazy. But peeling off those districts is also a strong possibility. Internal polling for Kara Eastman had her narrowly leading Bacon with Biden up something like nine points on Trump in CD-02. If he wins MI/PA, Omaha and Maine-02 he's the next president.

 

I also think the others are Biden's strongest swing states but not as likely.

While I agree with this strategy, I'd also like to caution against narrowing the focus too much based on polling and swing states. Hillary's campaign did this, and it was part of what cost them the "blue wall" states.

[Danny Bateman]

25 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

While I agree with this strategy, I'd also like to caution against narrowing the focus too much based on polling and swing states. Hillary's campaign did this, and it was part of what cost them the "blue wall" states.

 

For sure. They need to cast a wide net. Clinton misread the true swing states, overestimated her confidence in the Rust Belt and everything fell apart from there.

 

If we're merely comparing Biden's strongest swing states I think it goes something like MI >>> PA > AZ and > WI/NC/FL and then the rest. The point is he's strongest in MI and should play well in PA. And from there he's got options.

 

I think you're right to be skeptical of repeating Clinton's mistakes, though.