The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election

[FrantzHardySwag]

29 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Yeah but it has only moved in his favor for the last two weeks.

For sports betting comparison. Over the last two weeks Biden went from a -150 favorite to a -125 favorite (combination of all online sportsbooks). This morning at 10AM, the Clippers were a -250 favorite against the Mavs, right now they are a -220 favorite - the line moved 1 point during that span. So I guess to the untrained eye it looks like Trump took a huge leap over the last 2 weeks, but in reality it was a fairly small movement, a movement that sports matchups see in a couple hours time. I'm guessing Trump's odds getting low prompted a flurry of money to his side, now the book has corrected. 

[BigRedBuster]

They should have a point spread on the election. 
 

Like: Biden -156 electoral college votes. 

[Notre Dame Joe]

5 hours ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

It's dumb to watch these things day to day. It'd be like watching your stocks move up and down all day, you'll drive yourself crazy. Odds ebb and flow, they'll move towards Trump, then Biden, then Trump, then Biden.

 

Notre Dame has a #1 roof sign that gets lit up every few years when the women's basketball team gets hot.  The Whitehouse needs one that reads 40%.

[BigRedBuster]

 

[Danny Bateman]

Trump seems triggered tonight judging by how he's screaming in all caps on the Twitter machine. 

[Ratt Mhule]

7 hours ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

For sports betting comparison. Over the last two weeks Biden went from a -150 favorite to a -125 favorite (combination of all online sportsbooks). This morning at 10AM, the Clippers were a -250 favorite against the Mavs, right now they are a -220 favorite - the line moved 1 point during that span. So I guess to the untrained eye it looks like Trump took a huge leap over the last 2 weeks, but in reality it was a fairly small movement, a movement that sports matchups see in a couple hours time. I'm guessing Trump's odds getting low prompted a flurry of money to his side, now the book has corrected. 

Or the polls are narrowing and people see that. CNN poll this week swung Trump by like 8 points over the last month and is basically a statistical tie at this point. Both sides are trying to lose it seems like. 
 

The DNC convention is basically an F you to progressives. They give more time to Kaisich and Colin Powell than AOC and he spends it talking about the radical left and how Biden wont go left. Probably not a good plan to alienate 40% of your own party but we will see come November. 

[Moiraine]

11 minutes ago, Frott Scost said:

Or the polls are narrowing and people see that. CNN poll this week swung Trump by like 8 points over the last month and is basically a statistical tie at this point. Both sides are trying to lose it seems like. 
 

The DNC convention is basically an F you to progressives. They give more time to Kaisich and Colin Powell than AOC and he spends it talking about the radical left and how Biden wont go left. Probably not a good plan to alienate 40% of your own party but we will see come November. 

 

 

That was an individual CNN poll. It was hilarious to watch them have it as a headline on their site then the very next day say Biden is up by 9 points or whatever it was in the CNN cumulative poll.

[Ratt Mhule]

Just now, Moiraine said:

 

 

That was an individual CNN poll. It was hilarious to watch them have it as a headline on their site then the very next day say Biden is up by 9 points or whatever it was in the CNN cumulative poll.

The RCP average is Biden +7.6. Last month I believe it was double digits. Polls started narrowing after his terrible interview where he asked the interviewer if he was a junkie. Clinton was +5.5 at the same time in 2016. The fact Biden isnt up by 15+ with the way Trump is handling corona and his campaign strategy being about the culture war and confederate statues just shows how weak of a candidate Biden is.

[Moiraine]

51 minutes ago, Frott Scost said:

The RCP average is Biden +7.6. Last month I believe it was double digits. Polls started narrowing after his terrible interview where he asked the interviewer if he was a junkie. Clinton was +5.5 at the same time in 2016. The fact Biden isnt up by 15+ with the way Trump is handling corona and his campaign strategy being about the culture war and confederate statues just shows how weak of a candidate Biden is.

 

 

I don't disagree with any of that, but he hasn't had a double digit drop and it's silly to use the one CNN poll rather than an average. And I don't like Biden but it shows more what bats#!t crazy times we are in. It wouldn't matter if Jesus walked the earth and ran for president accepting the nomination while walking on water, Trump would probably still have at least 35% support. People are that blind.

[Notre Dame Joe]

 

Now the question just becomes, is Trump merely reclaiming R leaning voters who decided to change policies because of one rogue cop in Minnesota. 

 

1 hour ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

I don't disagree with any of that, but he hasn't had a double digit drop and it's silly to use the one CNN poll rather than an average. And I don't like Biden but it shows more what bats#!t crazy times we are in. It wouldn't matter if Jesus walked the earth and ran for president accepting the nomination while walking on water, Trump would probably still have at least 35% support. People are that blind.

 

If Jesus had cancelled "Under God" from the Pledge of Allegiance.

[Decoy73]

6 hours ago, Frott Scost said:

The RCP average is Biden +7.6. Last month I believe it was double digits. Polls started narrowing after his terrible interview where he asked the interviewer if he was a junkie. Clinton was +5.5 at the same time in 2016. The fact Biden isnt up by 15+ with the way Trump is handling corona and his campaign strategy being about the culture war and confederate statues just shows how weak of a candidate Biden is.

I think more so it shows how easily people are swayed.   So many don’t see the big picture.   It’s how we ended up with Trump in the first place.  It’s both scary and sad that despite everything Trump has failed at, this will end up being a very tight race.   

[Ratt Mhule]

6 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

I don't disagree with any of that, but he hasn't had a double digit drop and it's silly to use the one CNN poll rather than an average. And I don't like Biden but it shows more what bats#!t crazy times we are in. It wouldn't matter if Jesus walked the earth and ran for president accepting the nomination while walking on water, Trump would probably still have at least 35% support. People are that blind.

I just used the RCP average. It was double digits last month I dont know what else to tell you. Most polls this month have swayed back towards Trump +2-+4%. CNN just had the largest Trump turnaround from last month and is a statistically tie in both national and battleground states. Thats why I ised that one for this month. It can change next week for all I know. 
 

Yes, Trump will have 35% support which is around the percent of republicans in the nation. He has a 96% approval rating in his party. Thats why for the life of me, I cant understand the strategy to try and sway the phantom never Trump republican rather than get your wntore base on board first. The fact Kaisich and Powell got minutes of speaking time while AOC got 60 seconds to nominate Sanders boggles my mind. Usually the candidate gets a post convention bump so Im anxious to see if Biden does after this s#!t show. My guess is he stays about the same or Trump gains.

 

Biden and democrats would be up by +15 or more now if they just focused on the economy and put out policy that could help people. We are in a housing crisis. Around 50% of the country couldnt pay their rent in July. Millions have lost healthcare. Millions are about to be homeless. Congress is on vacation and Trump keeps talking about the NASDAQ and Biden being a puppet of the radical left! Wtf! And like usually, Sanders is the only one talking about actual policy at the convention while the others talk about how bad Trump is while offering no solutions themselves. Like I said, it seems like both sides are trying to lose. 

[Nebfanatic]

4 hours ago, Notre Dame Joe said:

 

Now the question just becomes, is Trump merely reclaiming R leaning voters who decided to change policies because of a system of corrupt policing in the United States. 

 

 

If Jesus had cancelled "Under God" from the Pledge of Allegiance.

fify

[Moiraine]

52 minutes ago, Frott Scost said:

Yes, Trump will have 35% support which is around the percent of republicans in the nation. He has a 96% approval rating in his party. Thats why for the life of me, I cant understand the strategy to try and sway the phantom never Trump republican rather than get your wntore base on board first. The fact Kaisich and Powell got minutes of speaking time while AOC got 60 seconds to nominate Sanders boggles my mind. Usually the candidate gets a post convention bump so Im anxious to see if Biden does after this s#!t show. My guess is he stays about the same or Trump gains.

 

Biden and democrats would be up by +15 or more now if they just focused on the economy and put out policy that could help people. We are in a housing crisis. Around 50% of the country couldnt pay their rent in July. Millions have lost healthcare. Millions are about to be homeless. Congress is on vacation and Trump keeps talking about the NASDAQ and Biden being a puppet of the radical left! Wtf! And like usually, Sanders is the only one talking about actual policy at the convention while the others talk about how bad Trump is while offering no solutions themselves. Like I said, it seems like both sides are trying to lose. 

 

 

 

The DNC is the (far) lesser of 2 evils, but they still want to make $ out of this and don't necessarily put the good of the country above all else, or what voters actually want.

[commando]

6 hours ago, Notre Dame Joe said:

 

If Jesus had cancelled "Under God" from the Pledge of Allegiance.