The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election

[knapplc]

16 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

I get disagreeing with Moore's conclusions, but it continues to be weird to claim Moore is cherry-picking when his tweets are showing multiple polls in them. It's not like he's scouring the corners of the internet - these are RCP polling averages and images from CNN.

How do you justify that with RCP's website showing Biden leading in both states? 

[teachercd]

I would probably also remember...that right now Moore is probably working on a "movie" about a certain President and voting...

 

It makes sense that he would be tweeting stuff out that can make his movie more interesting.  

[Danny Bateman]

Just listened to Biden speak from Pittsburgh.

 

I have no idea how this election is close. He hit Trump hard, where it hurt. Hit all the right notes, for my money.

[Moiraine]

3 hours ago, RedDenver said:

That's a lot of assumptions about who has guns, who would shoot whom, and that the military is supporting Trump as a dictator.

 

 

Of course it is. We’re talking hypotheticals. 

 

But I don’t think the assumptions are off base. I would bet $ that Trump supporters are more likely to own guns and I’ve seen far too many people fall in line with Trump to believe there will be enough in the military willing to stand up to him. 

[Decoy73]

2 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

Just listened to Biden speak from Pittsburgh.

 

I have no idea how this election is close. He hit Trump hard, where it hurt. Hit all the right notes, for my money.

It’s close because the enormously popular republican propaganda machine is extremely good at spreading misinformation.  And most importantly, there’s no equal on the left.   Not even close.   Just my opinion.   

[RedDenver]

47 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

This is a bit in the weeds so bear with me...

 

My first point was that not weighting by education undersampled the white working class (non-college) folks in 2016 and thus underrepresented Trump's strength, esp in battleground states where that group is higher relative to other states. More on this here from Vox:

 

 

The bolded is what I've found doing a quick skim of recent battleground polling from this year. So if methodology has largely been tweaked to account for more WWC people in battleground states, polling this go around should be more accurate and thus not apples to apples with 2016 polling.

 

Moore is referencing one CNN/SRSS poll that had a subset of 636 RVs in battleground states and 1108 respondents overall. The battleground subset shows 49% - 48%. Close, right?

 

The problem with the methodology is they pulled those 636 responses from 15 states and lumped them into one "battleground" bucket. So the 1% difference they found does not reflect current state averages like Biden +10 in Maine, Biden +7 in Michigan, Trump +1.5 in Texas or Trump +<1 in Georgia because it's pulling responses from places where the state is wildly different and lumping them together.

 

See Nate Silver here:

 

 

For some reason I thought the CNN poll was for Minnesota, but it's a lumping of "battleground" states. My mistake, your argument makes sense now.

 

However, I don't buy Silver's argument about national polling being accurate but battleground state polling being so much less accurate. I can refute his argument be reduction to absurdity: if I define "battleground states" as all fifty states, then Silver's argument is that fifty state polling is way less accurate than fifty state polling.

 

35 minutes ago, knapplc said:

How do you justify that with RCP's website showing Biden leading in both states? 

We're talking about a half dozen or more states, so I'm not sure which you mean by "both". If you meant both polls, then my reply is that Biden has the lead right now but trending downward currently and comparing to 2016 Hillary numbers makes it concerning. I still think Biden is going to win, but I think it's going to be very close. Moore is making the case that people need to be engaged if they want to defeat Trump because it's closer than the media narrative might lead some to believe.

 

1 minute ago, Moiraine said:

Of course it is. We’re talking hypotheticals. 

 

But I don’t think the assumptions are off base. I would bet $ that Trump supporters are more likely to own guns and I’ve seen far too many people fall in line with Trump to believe there will be enough in the military willing to stand up to him, especially since members of the military tend to be Trump supporters. 

I'm disagreeing on the assumptions in your hypothetical. For example, recent polling shows active military supporting Biden more than Trump, so I think you're imagining things that aren't true.

[knapplc]

 

[teachercd]

On my site...Trump is now -130 to get elected.  I might lose a good bit of cash on this because I have money on Trump getting beat at -190...Big swing in odds.

[FrantzHardySwag]

2 minutes ago, teachercd said:

On my site...Trump is now -130 to get elected.  I might lose a good bit of cash on this because I have money on Trump getting beat at -190...Big swing in odds.

What site do you use?

[knapplc]

Isn't this the swamp Trump promised to drain?

 

 

[commando]

when trump said he was going to drain the swamp...he meant he was going to drain all the tax $ out of the swamp and into his and his friends bank accounts

[Notre Dame Joe]

35 minutes ago, teachercd said:

On my site...Trump is now -130 to get elected.  I might lose a good bit of cash on this because I have money on Trump getting beat at -190...Big swing in odds.

and 42.8% Approval (RCP National Avg), get the personal record trophy!

 

Usually when Trump gets this popular he has always insulted a woman on twitter to get back himself into bad guy status.  IIRC in 2016 he didn't stop it cold turkey until the last ten days before the election.  THat's a major factor in why the Ds are pushing for ballots that you mail in many weeks before election day.  

[commando]

2 minutes ago, Notre Dame Joe said:

  THat's a major factor in why the Ds are pushing for ballots that you mail in many weeks before election day.  

wait...i thought the mail in ballots were "illegal" because people could mail them in for weeks after the election according to trump and his sycophants.  now you are complaining because they can be mailed in weeks before the vote?  

[knapplc]

5 minutes ago, Notre Dame Joe said:

THat's a major factor in why the Ds are pushing for ballots that you mail in many weeks before election day.  

 

Uh, no. They want those ballots mailed in weeks before election day because your cheating cheeto god is committing voter suppression.

[TGHusker]