RedDenver Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Amazing there are still people that see Trump as anything but a buffoon: 1 Link to comment
Guy Chamberlin Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, FrantzHardySwag said: Here is the thing about seniors. You're not going to win them over by downplaying COVID. They're social lives have been uprooted because of covid. They've missed family events because of covid. Family hasn't been able to visit because of covid. They've had friends funerals cancelled because of covid. They've had doctors appts cancelled because of covid. They've had necessary surgeries pushed back because of covid. They're the group that most likely has lost a friend or family member to covid. To downplay or ignore it, is to not recognize how terrible the last 7 months have been for them. I'll have to take your word for it. My 90 year old parents live in Seniors housing in Lincoln, where Trump reigns unquestioned. They have identified only a handful of Democrats , who've learned not to expose their leanings to the Gen Pop. Then again, these people haven't been interacting with each other for several months. There may be a shift, but I doubt it's much. When old people think of the birthdays, funerals, children, and grandchildren they've missed, they are just as likely to blame the media for overplaying the danger as they are blaming the White House for underplaying it. The restrictions are heartbreaking for everybody, but especially for folks already in their final act, unable to physically connect with anybody. I wonder if the shift among Seniors has less to do with COVID and more with admitting Trump is a childish blowhard. Also, Joe Biden is tailor made for Seniors, and the classic AARP issues tend to lean Dem. Also, at 61 am I considered a Senior? Cause that would blow my mind. 1 Link to comment
Moiraine Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Tuesday, October 6 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2 Florida: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk* Biden 45, Trump 45 Tie Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4 Florida: Trump vs. Biden UNF Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 54, Trump 43 Biden +11 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Detroit News/WDIV-TV Biden 48, Trump 39 Biden +9 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6 New Mexico: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Biden 53, Trump 39 Biden +14 General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 57, Trump 41 Biden +16 President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 45, Disapprove 54 Disapprove +9 2 Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 This is just going to be so dang interesting to see how this election turns out. Absolutely everything points to a landslide. But with 4 weeks remaining, I'm still nervous. This could end up being anywhere from the polls being wrong again to the bigliest landslide election loss the world has ever seen. 2 Link to comment
Moiraine Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: This is just going to be so dang interesting to see how this election turns out. Absolutely everything points to a landslide. But with 4 weeks remaining, I'm still nervous. This could end up being anywhere from the polls being wrong again to the bigliest landslide election loss the world has ever seen. I'm not really concerned about the polls being that far off. I'm concerned about voter suppression, I'm concerned about the lopsided % of Democrats voting by mail in swing states making it initially look like Trump won the state and Trump trying to declare victory immediately and trying to rile up his base to cause trouble and trying to stay in power. I am hoping there are enough swing states that have a big enough margin for Biden that it's unquestionable that he won. For example if Biden is up by a high enough % in a state that the mail in ballots won't matter even if they're all votes for Trump, Trump can't claim fraud due to mail in ballots. Hopefully there are some swing states like that. 1 Link to comment
RedDenver Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 I couldn't find a better thread to put this in, so I'll post it here: 2 Link to comment
teachercd Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: This is just going to be so dang interesting to see how this election turns out. Absolutely everything points to a landslide. But with 4 weeks remaining, I'm still nervous. This could end up being anywhere from the polls being wrong again to the bigliest landslide election loss the world has ever seen. 3 Link to comment
FrantzHardySwag Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 This thing is self destructing in real time....goodness. 3 Link to comment
Moiraine Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 538 now has Biden winning in 83 of 100 simulations. That's his highest margin yet. Now Biden just needs to avoid the slide Clinton had. She had a 4.5 point lead 28 days before the election. It slipped to 2.8 one week before the election and 1.1 the day before. Link to comment
FrantzHardySwag Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Moiraine said: 538 now has Biden winning in 83 of 100 simulations. That's his highest margin yet. Now Biden just needs to avoid the slide Clinton had. She had a 4.5 point lead 28 days before the election. It slipped to 2.8 one week before the election and 1.1 the day before. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said: I'm sure they learned lessons from last time however polling is never going to be perfect. The analysis can only be as good as the polling, although I think they use other factors as well. Link to comment
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