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The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election


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This study suggests Biden can unite different parts of his coalition by focusing more on climate policy.

 

 

Quote

Trump voters who’ve lost confidence in the president are an electorally critical demographic, but it’s also a small group of people — just around 10 percent of the approximately 46 percent of voters who pulled the lever for Trump in 2016. The CCES is an ideal tool to study those voters because it’s a large survey, with 19,000 responses, that can still generate statistically useful information about small sub-groups.

 

The main takeaway is that those Trump voters who say they are likely to vote Democratic in 2020 (or aren’t sure) are much younger than the typical Trump voter. Over 20 percent of Trump backers in the youngest cohorts say they have doubts about 2020, but very few older Trump voters agree.

Screen_Shot_2020_03_31_at_9.02.48_PM.png

These wavering Trump voters, as you might expect, take a mix of liberal and conservative positions on various policy questions the CCES asks about.

 

Of course, it doesn’t matter whether a person has a left-leaning view on an issue if they don’t really prioritize it — so the authors ran the data through an algorithm designed to show which issues are strong statistical predictors of wavering. In other words, what are the issues on which giving some liberal answers means you’re likely considering voting for a Democrat in 2020?

 

What the authors found is that climate and immigration stand head and shoulders above the rest.

Screen_Shot_2020_03_31_at_9.42.02_PM.png

 

But there’s a big difference between these two topics. On immigration, wavering Trump voters are fairly moderate, meaning they disagree with some of Trump’s positions but also disagree with some Democratic ones. On climate, by contrast, wavering Trump supporters are clearly aligned with Democrats.

 

Another really interesting graphic breaks down how groups differ on climate ideas:

 

Screen_Shot_2020_04_01_at_8.50.23_AM.png

 

This is actually an excellent idea, considering Trump is busy doing this:

 

 

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2 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

This study suggests Biden can unite different parts of his coalition by focusing more on climate policy.

 

 

 

Another really interesting graphic breaks down how groups differ on climate ideas:

 

Screen_Shot_2020_04_01_at_8.50.23_AM.png

 

This is actually an excellent idea, considering Trump is busy doing this:

 

 

Biden's treatment of the Sunrise Movement is going to come back to haunt him if he runs on climate policies.

 

From a few weeks ago:

The Sunrise Movement Is Mobilizing to Stop Joe Biden

 

 

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8 minutes ago, BlitzFirst said:

Biden CAN'T unite the Democrats.  He lies too much.  If he had an ounce of Bernies integrity...maybe.  But he doesn't.

Are you are true Bernie Bro?

 

You have got to be pissed off at how the D's are f#&%ing with him, right?

 

 

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Reading comments here is deflating. The Dem voters seemed to screw it up again according to Huskerboard posters.

 

Most vocal people here have a disdain for Trump.  But we are also down to Biden (99% chance) and Sanders (1% if that).  And it sounds like as much as we complain about our current spot, there isn’t a consensus among The vocal that either of them would be better than Trump. This does make me nervous as a person who wants Trump our.

 

I wish a Dem would have stepped up that could crush Trump and show 30% of America that Trumpism is not welcome in our America.  But that ship has apparently sailed...

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8 hours ago, BlitzFirst said:

 

Again, there is no such thing as a "Bernie Bro".  Go look here:  https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/here-comes-the-berniebro-bernie-sanders/411070/

 

That's where it got it's start.  I am not that person.  The average Sanders supporter is female and/or minority.  Stop trying to fit me into some narrative.

 

I voted for Donald Trump in 2016.

 

GTFO with your stupid Bernie Bro nonsense.

After reading that article it sort of really sounds like there is such a thing as a Bernie Bro.  

 

Anyway, how do you feel about how the D's are treating him?

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17 minutes ago, funhusker said:

Reading comments here is deflating. The Dem voters seemed to screw it up again according to Huskerboard posters.

 

Most vocal people here have a disdain for Trump.  But we are also down to Biden (99% chance) and Sanders (1% if that).  And it sounds like as much as we complain about our current spot, there isn’t a consensus among The vocal that either of them would be better than Trump. This does make me nervous as a person who wants Trump our.

 

I wish a Dem would have stepped up that could crush Trump and show 30% of America that Trumpism is not welcome in our America.  But that ship has apparently sailed...

 

This is spot on.

 

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21 minutes ago, funhusker said:

And it sounds like as much as we complain about our current spot, there isn’t a consensus among The vocal that either of them would be better than Trump.

 

OF COURSE Biden would be better than trump. But that's not a high bar. He's literally the worst president in our lifetime.

 

I don't think anyone here is excited for Biden. I think most probably think we're going to disagree with a lot of what he does. But that is infinitely better than a man who is actively fighting against this country, and may be a foreign asset. If Biden is beholden to anyone it's Americans.

 

That's an improvement.

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1 hour ago, knapplc said:

 

OF COURSE Biden would be better than trump. But that's not a high bar. He's literally the worst president in our lifetime.

 

I don't think anyone here is excited for Biden. I think most probably think we're going to disagree with a lot of what he does. But that is infinitely better than a man who is actively fighting against this country, and may be a foreign asset. If Biden is beholden to anyone it's Americans.

 

That's an improvement.

I'm on the same page as you.

 

But it is frustrating that when the nation is given such a low bar to jump over, this is what we get. 

 

I guess I was more hoping for something like this:

 

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4 hours ago, funhusker said:

I wish a Dem would have stepped up that could crush Trump and show 30% of America that Trumpism is not welcome in our America.  But that ship has apparently sailed...

 

We don't get these type of candidates every election cycle. There's no Obama or Reagan coming to save us - except to campaign against Trump of course. :lol:

 

I'm excited for Biden much like I'd have been excited for Sanders or Harris or Buttigieg or whomever else the primary spat out because they are our chance to extricate the current virus from the White House.

 

Of course there's a vocal minority convinced Biden is absolutely terrible. That's their prerogative, but it's not worth wasting time worrying about.

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