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The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election


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29 minutes ago, krc1995 said:

So I’ve never really understood betting odds like this This means if you bet Biden and he wins, you have to bet $200 to win $100? Is that like 1/2 odds in horse racing? Like the amount you want to win/the amount of the bet? 
 

but I don’t understand it in reverse. Is it you best $100 to win 190? 
 

why given two choices, do they not do percentages? I think I might know, but not sure. Guessing it’s because they don’t know how big the betting pool is and they need to keep adjusting the odds to stay balanced, but then why do they care? They just take some off the top anyway. 

It’s pretty simple.

If it’s a negative number, that is the amount you have to wager to win $100.

If it’s a positive number, it is the amount you win if you wager $100.


So if Biden is -200 and Trump is +190....

$200 wagered on Biden will pay you $100 if he wins or you’ll lose the $200 if Trump wins.

$100 wagered on Trump will pay you $190 if Trump wins or you’ll lose the $100 if he loses.

These odds are indicating Biden is a pretty heavy favorite.


In sports (football) betting they would call this the money line. Most people however bet football with a point spread at -110 meaning you have to wager $110 to win $100 but you also need to satisfy beating the spread to win. The $10 gap is referred to as the juice. This is what the Bookmaker profits regardless of who wins. They simply move the point spread to keep the betting balanced on both sides and then they make 10% on all losing bets while 100% of the losing bets pay the winners. The money line is a little more confusing imo but it works basically the same way. It’s just that the odds change instead of the point spread.

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2 hours ago, knapplc said:

And for those of us who understand polling numbers better, this makes more sense:

 

 


I agree, the polling numbers give a much better indication of who is favored and by how much.

 

I still find that 2016 Clinton +5.8 highly annoying though. I realize the dynamics of that election were quite a bit different than the current one but I would still hope the polling numbers would’ve been more indicative.

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20 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

I agree, the polling numbers give a much better indication of who is favored and by how much.

 

I still find that 2016 Clinton +5.8 highly annoying though. I realize the dynamics of that election were quite a bit different than the current one but I would still hope the polling numbers would’ve been more indicative.

 

 

I'm sure they've made adjustments to their polling, but I don't think the effect of the Comey news should be ignored. We are still not as close to the election as we were when he said the investigation was being reopened. In the week leading up to the election the race tightened to around 2 points. We'll see if something similar happens this time.

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Just now, Moiraine said:

 

 

I'm sure they've made adjustments to their polling, but I don't think the effect of the Comey news should be ignored. We are still not as close to the election as we were when he said the investigation was being reopened. In the week leading up to the election the race tightened to around 2 points. We'll see if something similar happens this time.

i am sure Barr will unleash something.

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Here is the thing about seniors. You're not going to win them over by downplaying COVID. They're social lives have been uprooted because of covid. They've missed family events because of covid. Family hasn't been able to visit because of covid. They've had friends funerals cancelled because of covid. They've had doctors appts cancelled because of covid. They've had necessary surgeries pushed back because of covid. They're the group that most likely has lost a friend or family member to covid. 

 

To downplay or ignore it, is to not recognize how terrible the last 7 months have been for them. 

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7 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

Here is the thing about seniors. You're not going to win them over by downplaying COVID. They're social lives have been uprooted because of covid. They've missed family events because of covid. Family hasn't been able to visit because of covid. They've had friends funerals cancelled because of covid. They've had doctors appts cancelled because of covid. They've had necessary surgeries pushed back because of covid. They're the group that most likely has lost a friend or family member to covid. 

 

To downplay or ignore it, is to not recognize how terrible the last 7 months have been for them. 

 

 

It would seem as though quite a few seniors have seen the comments implying that grandma & grandpa should be willing to die to save the economy.

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1 hour ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

It honestly is all they have at this point, the funny part is they've cried wolf so many times, if a real scandal happened, no one would believe them. Here is the latest "scandal" proven to be fabricated.

 

 

Related:  Another deceitful act by hard right Trump supporters trying to hinder voting by mail

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/01/wohl-robocall-michigan/

 

 

Quote

 

Two right-wing operatives infamous for inventing outlandish conspiracy theories face felony charges in Michigan for allegedly intimidating voters with inaccurate robocalls that discouraged residents in urban areas from casting their ballots by mail.

 

Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman were charged with four felonies of intimidating voters, conspiring to violate election law and using a computer to commit a crime, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel announced Thursday. Thousands of residents from at least five states received the robocall aimed at discouraging absentee voting at a time when many Americans are expected to vote by mail rather than in person during the coronavirus pandemic.

Each charge against the pair carries a five- or seven-year sentence if they are convicted in Michigan — adding up to a maximum 12 years as some sentences for the charges would be concurrent. Wohl and Burkman, who live in Los Angeles and Arlington, Va., respectively, have not yet been arraigned,

 

 

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