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The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election


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Do you honestly not understand the difference between someone who said something stupid as an off color joke one time and some one who: Has been sued twice for housing discrimination against A

I honestly don't know what will happen tomorrow. But if Joe Biden wins, you will be allowed to own all the guns you want, worship your God however you want, and hate whomever you want in the privacy o

He is.

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1 hour ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

Here is the thing about seniors. You're not going to win them over by downplaying COVID. They're social lives have been uprooted because of covid. They've missed family events because of covid. Family hasn't been able to visit because of covid. They've had friends funerals cancelled because of covid. They've had doctors appts cancelled because of covid. They've had necessary surgeries pushed back because of covid. They're the group that most likely has lost a friend or family member to covid. 

 

To downplay or ignore it, is to not recognize how terrible the last 7 months have been for them. 

 

I'll have to take your word for it. My 90 year old parents live in Seniors housing in Lincoln, where Trump reigns unquestioned.  They have identified only a handful of Democrats , who've learned not to expose their leanings to the Gen Pop.

 

Then again, these people haven't been interacting with each other for several months. There may be a shift, but I doubt it's much. When old people think of the birthdays, funerals, children, and grandchildren they've missed, they are just as likely to blame the media for overplaying the danger as they are blaming the White House for underplaying it.  The restrictions are heartbreaking for everybody, but especially for folks already in their final act, unable to physically connect with anybody. 

 

I wonder if the shift among Seniors has less to do with COVID and more with admitting Trump is a childish blowhard. Also, Joe Biden is tailor made for Seniors, and the classic AARP issues tend to lean Dem.  Also, at 61 am I considered a Senior? Cause that would blow my mind. 

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This is just going to be so dang interesting to see how this election turns out.  Absolutely everything points to a landslide.  But with 4 weeks remaining, I'm still nervous.

 

This could end up being anywhere from the polls being wrong again to the bigliest landslide election loss the world has ever seen.

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10 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

This is just going to be so dang interesting to see how this election turns out.  Absolutely everything points to a landslide.  But with 4 weeks remaining, I'm still nervous.

 

This could end up being anywhere from the polls being wrong again to the bigliest landslide election loss the world has ever seen.

 

 

I'm not really concerned about the polls being that far off. I'm concerned about voter suppression, I'm concerned about the lopsided % of Democrats voting by mail in swing states making it initially look like Trump won the state and Trump trying to declare victory immediately and trying to rile up his base to cause trouble and trying to stay in power. I am hoping there are enough swing states that have a big enough margin for Biden that it's unquestionable that he won. For example if Biden is up by a high enough % in a state that the mail in ballots won't matter even if they're all votes for Trump, Trump can't claim fraud due to mail in ballots. Hopefully there are some swing states like that.

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11 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

This is just going to be so dang interesting to see how this election turns out.  Absolutely everything points to a landslide.  But with 4 weeks remaining, I'm still nervous.

 

This could end up being anywhere from the polls being wrong again to the bigliest landslide election loss the world has ever seen.

 

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538 now has Biden winning in 83 of 100 simulations. That's his highest margin yet. Now Biden just needs to avoid the slide Clinton had. She had a 4.5 point lead 28 days before the election. It slipped to 2.8 one week before the election and 1.1 the day before.

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1 minute ago, Moiraine said:

538 now has Biden winning in 83 of 100 simulations. That's his highest margin yet. Now Biden just needs to avoid the slide Clinton had. She had a 4.5 point lead 28 days before the election. It slipped to 2.8 one week before the election and 1.1 the day before.

 

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3 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

 

 

 

I'm sure they learned lessons from last time however polling is never going to be perfect. The analysis can only be as good as the polling, although I think they use other factors as well.

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