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The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election


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With the unprecedented amount of mail-in voting, will we have a winner (reasonably) declared next Tuesday? An enormous amount of people have already voted but how many more ballots won't be counted until after Election Day? 

 

I can already envision most outlets declaring a Biden victory while Fox News claims they can't say one way or the other.

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34 minutes ago, mrandyk said:

With the unprecedented amount of mail-in voting, will we have a winner (reasonably) declared next Tuesday? An enormous amount of people have already voted but how many more ballots won't be counted until after Election Day? 

 

I can already envision most outlets declaring a Biden victory while Fox News claims they can't say one way or the other.

 

The problem is the "fake news lib socialist media" will play it fair and won't declare it until they are 99% sure. However it is possible that's on Tuesday if Biden has enough leads in states that are bigger than the # of early ballots. Or vice versa with Trump.

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I was thinking about the calcs I made for the election in Pennsylvania and they're probably way off, since they can start counting the mail in ballots on election day. So some of the tallies will include the mailed ballots. So hopefully Biden will have a big enough lead that night that the uncounted ballots won't matter.

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1 hour ago, Moiraine said:

I was thinking about the calcs I made for the election in Pennsylvania and they're probably way off, since they can start counting the mail in ballots on election day. So some of the tallies will include the mailed ballots. So hopefully Biden will have a big enough lead that night that the uncounted ballots won't matter.

 

shh. Don't Mention Joe Biden!

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

Just curious where you some of you think this election is leaning? Do we believe the polls this time around?

I'm still not 100% confident in polling, but as pointed out in this thread earlier - Clinton was consistently polling in the mid 40s in 2016 with a massive amount of undecided voters. This year Biden has been consistently around 50 with much less undecided voters. 

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6 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

Just curious where you some of you think this election is leaning? Do we believe the polls this time around?

 

I would be more inclined to believe the polls this time based only on the fact that Biden is way more liked than Hillary. There isn't that "ugh" factor voting for him that swayed a lot of Undecideds last time.

 

Plus there are fewer Undecideds this time around. In 2016 there were something like 12-15% Undecided, while now it's around 4-5%.

 

People had, for a long time, wanted to test what it would be like if we ran the government like a business (I was hearing this back in the 80s when I first started paying attention to politics). But now we have four years of that, and it hasn't turned out like a lot of folks thought.

 

Another factor is that trump is no longer an unknown. It's been four years, this is what you're going to get from him, and if you're OK with that, you vote for him. If not... Biden is less "ugh" than Hillary.

 

I also don't think there's a remotely viable third-party candidate, right? Jill Stein pulled some votes from Hillary, but if I recall maybe not enough to have changed the outcome. 

 

But, having said all that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a narrow trump win. It is 2020, after all.

 

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10 hours ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

 

 

Someone mentioned that this is the exact opposite argument that he made as a lawyer for Bush in the FL recount case in 2000.

 

Looked it up: Yep. They argued late-arriving ballots must be counted because they thought they'd favor Bush.

 

Don't mistake these people for principled jurists. They're party hacks through and through and we should be honest about that.

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22 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

I would be more inclined to believe the polls this time based only on the fact that Biden is way more liked than Hillary. There isn't that "ugh" factor voting for him that swayed a lot of Undecideds last time.

 

Plus there are fewer Undecideds this time around. In 2016 there were something like 12-15% Undecided, while now it's around 4-5%.

 

People had, for a long time, wanted to test what it would be like if we ran the government like a business (I was hearing this back in the 80s when I first started paying attention to politics). But now we have four years of that, and it hasn't turned out like a lot of folks thought.

 

Another factor is that trump is no longer an unknown. It's been four years, this is what you're going to get from him, and if you're OK with that, you vote for him. If not... Biden is less "ugh" than Hillary.

 

I also don't think there's a remotely viable third-party candidate, right? Jill Stein pulled some votes from Hillary, but if I recall maybe not enough to have changed the outcome. 

 

But, having said all that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a narrow trump win. It is 2020, after all.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Someone mentioned that this is the exact opposite argument that he made as a lawyer for Bush in the FL recount case in 2000.

 

Looked it up: Yep. They argued late-arriving ballots must be counted because they thought they'd favor Bush.

 

Don't mistake these people for principled jurists. They're party hacks through and through and we should be honest about that.

Roberts and Barrett also worked on Bush v Gore. 

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42 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

I would be more inclined to believe the polls this time based only on the fact that Biden is way more liked than Hillary. There isn't that "ugh" factor voting for him that swayed a lot of Undecideds last time.

 

Plus there are fewer Undecideds this time around. In 2016 there were something like 12-15% Undecided, while now it's around 4-5%.

 

People had, for a long time, wanted to test what it would be like if we ran the government like a business (I was hearing this back in the 80s when I first started paying attention to politics). But now we have four years of that, and it hasn't turned out like a lot of folks thought.

 

Another factor is that trump is no longer an unknown. It's been four years, this is what you're going to get from him, and if you're OK with that, you vote for him. If not... Biden is less "ugh" than Hillary.

 

I also don't think there's a remotely viable third-party candidate, right? Jill Stein pulled some votes from Hillary, but if I recall maybe not enough to have changed the outcome. 

 

But, having said all that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a narrow trump win. It is 2020, after all.

 

 

Stein had almost 1.5 million votes and Gary Johnson had triple the votes as her. Evan McMullin even got over 700k. They only combined for about 5%, but those relatively strong results compared to historical 3rd party voting. It surely had much to do with people refusing to vote for Clinton and Trump.

 

This year it is tough to see that kind of third party support.

 

Jo Jorgensen of the Libertarian Party isn't nearly has well know as Gary Johnson and even though Johnson is clearly an odd guy I think people found him genuinely likable, probably why he got so much TV time last cycle which helped him on election day.

 

The Green Party I think will fall a little, but wouldn't be surprised to see over a million as its the most viable outlet for the left leaning that don't like Biden. 

 

Gloria La Riva of the Party for Socialism and Liberation Party could crack 100k this cycle.

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53 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

Just curious where you some of you think this election is leaning? Do we believe the polls this time around?

 

 

I read that one of the problems was they weren't weighting education enough and it was a big factor in how people voted last time, so they are weighting it differently this time around. And like others have said the % undecided is way different this time. The other thing is the polls days before the election were not that far off, and well within the margin of error. The ones saying Clinton was ahead nationally turned out to be correct. It was the predictions on battlegrounds which weren't correct but they were within the margin of error. In battlegrounds Clinton was up 1.1 on election day, but an election day poll would be based off of data from previous days, and it was 45.4 to 44.3. That's 10.3% undecided. That's a lot of undecided voters.

 

Right now Biden is up 3.9% in battlegrounds with 5.1% undecided.
At 7 days until election, Clinton was up 2.8% in battlegrounds with 11.0% undecided.

 

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