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The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election


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6 minutes ago, DevoHusker said:

 

I certainly don't think "bizarre" or "detached from reality" when I read this. I think their mindset is pretty typical Midwest farmer:

“Everybody wants to put people in a box so we can decide right away if we hate you. You’re a Trump supporter! You’re a Biden supporter! We hate you!” he said. “We need to quit that as a country. You are who you are, and I am who I am, and I can love you even if I don’t agree with you.”

In Henderson, word spread quickly among the tightknit set of farmers about Mr. Rempel’s burning equipment. Everyone knew it happened at a crucial time when corn needed to be harvested and hauled to market. The urgency was all the greater for Mr. Rempel whose wife was days away from her due date with the couple’s third child.

Neighbors and friends from church brought over casseroles and homemade cinnamon rolls. Mr. Rempel’s sister set up a GoFundMe page called “Burned Farmer” where donations have topped $100,000.

And under a silvery sky of a frigid recent dawn, a line of combines and tractors rumbled across the horizon and pulled to a stop in a gravel lot. Some two dozen farmers descended their vehicles and gathered for a prayer before they got to work. They came from neighboring farms and as far away as Colorado to help Mr. Rempel finish his harvest.

“Welcome to my life,” Mr. Rempel said, taking it all in, “where people are good.”

 

 

 

You know this isn't is the part knapp is talking about, he is talking about their political views, not the mindset that people should work hard and be nice to each other. It is crazy for Nebraska farmers to think Trump's policies help them and that he gives a f#&% about the average person.

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Do you honestly not understand the difference between someone who said something stupid as an off color joke one time and some one who: Has been sued twice for housing discrimination against A

He is.

I honestly don't know what will happen tomorrow. But if Joe Biden wins, you will be allowed to own all the guns you want, worship your God however you want, and hate whomever you want in the privacy o

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4 minutes ago, mrandyk said:

I wish this were unique to rural Nebraska. Recent trips I took across rural Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan (UP) had me feeling right back at home with my delusional Nebraska relatives that have never left their towns of about 1-2k people but have very strong opinions about what's wrong with the country, as if they have any idea what it's like in the outside world.

My wife's sister-in-law is from Red Cloud, NE and she (and her children) have been vocal Trump supporters and have very delusional thoughts on what the country/world is like in most cities and states.  This woman has lived in the Red Cloud area her entire life, now works in Hastings, and the only travel outside her general area is to visit her daughter in Lincoln or see her dad in rural Wyoming.  She had a Facebook post a few weeks ago about how many of her Facebook friends followed Trump's Facebook page.  All that told me is that she doesn't have a very diverse group of friends and she likes to live in an echo chamber.

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Just now, Moiraine said:

 

 

You know this isn't is the part knapp is talking about, he is talking about their political views. It is crazy for Nebraska farmers to think Trump's policies help them and that he gives a f#&%.

The number of farms I have seen that have flags upon flags waving in their fields with military stylized support of Trump is absolutely insane. These people prop him up as some sort of action movie war hero, when he is the biggest baby imaginable. We are talking about someone who has probably never driven anything more powerful than a golf cart. This is your uber manly hero? What do you see in him? You would absolutely hate him if you had to be around him.

 

It's all delusion. They've made him stand for everything they love and against everything they hate, no matter what the reality of the situation is.

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I'm not gonna try and tell farmers who to support, and no doubt many of them still believe Trump is fighting for them and culturally can't divorce themselves from the GOP.

 

But his trade wars have decided increased their reliance on federal subsidies to stay afloat, at least those of them that can - so maybe they should lay off the "handouts" rhetoric.

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In depth article on Why Trump can't afford to lose.

 

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/11/09/why-trump-cant-afford-to-lose

 

 

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The Presidential historian Michael Beschloss said of Trump, “If he loses, you have a situation that’s not dissimilar to that of Nixon when he resigned. Nixon spoke of the cell door clanging shut.” Trump has famously survived one impeachment, two divorces, six bankruptcies, twenty-six accusations of sexual misconduct, and an estimated four thousand lawsuits. Few people have evaded consequences more cunningly. That run of good luck may well end, perhaps brutally, if he loses to Joe Biden. Even if Trump wins, grave legal and financial threats will loom over his second term.

 

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2 hours ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

I'm starting to think we're overestimating the amount of conservative judges willing to put their nuts on the chopping block for Donald f#&%ing Trump, of all people.

 

 

 

 

We know there are dirty judges out there. And when this case was assigned to Hanen I saw some groans because he's viewed as pretty friendly toward conservative agendas. 

 

But he does NOT appear to be on board with throwing out in excess of 100K votes for whatever flimsy excuse the Republicans are trotting out here.

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I was visiting Lincoln last week, killing time and driving around town. If I were going strictly by yard signs, Biden is carrying Lincoln 10 to 1.  Biggest concentration of signs were in the wealthier neighborhoods like Sheridan and Lincolnshire. Not just Biden/Harris signs, but Peace, Love & Justice signs. BLM signs. Some I've never seen in California:  Joe Biden supports Solar Energy. 

 

But I'm mindful of the warning Michael Moore gave in 2016 and repeated this year: Many Trump supporters prefer the shadows, thwarting the pollsters, and avoiding judgement for supporting a racist, divisive, possibly insane President. Given the chance to be anonymous, they still bring big numbers that will be breaking late. 

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4 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

But I'm mindful of the warning Michael Moore gave in 2016 and repeated this year: Many Trump supporters prefer the shadows, thwarting the pollsters, and avoiding judgement for supporting a racist, divisive, possibly insane President. Given the chance to be anonymous, they still bring big numbers that will be breaking late. 

 

 

That is potentially true, but it's less likely this time. I was just looking at Michigan, and the aggregated polls were off by 3.4 points in 2016. They had Clinton winning by 3.4% and she lost by 0.23%. But there were a whopping 12.6% of undecided.

Biden is currently up by 5.1% and 5.5% are undecided. If the polls are off by the same amount as last time, Biden still wins.

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1 minute ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

That is potentially true, but it's less likely this time. I was just looking at Michigan, and they aggregated polls were off by 3.4 points in 2016. They had Clinton winning by 3.4 and she lost by 0.23. But there were a whopping 12.6% of people undecided.

Biden is currently up by 5.1 and 5.5% of people are undecided. If the polls are off by the same amount as last time, Biden still wins.

 

Allegedly these errors were corrected for mid-term polling in 2018. If you had info on how much more/less/same accurate those polls were, that would be telling.

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1 hour ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

I honestly don't know what will happen tomorrow. But if Joe Biden wins, you will be allowed to own all the guns you want, worship your God however you want, and hate whomever you want in the privacy of your own home. Our economy and economic ideology will continue largely on the same path it has been on through Trump, Obama, Bush....basically most of American history. If you are one of the people who will have to pay slightly more in taxes, congratulations -- you are earning over $400,000 a year and your tax rate will still be considerably lower than it was during those decades when America was Great. The federal deficit -- which soared under Trump as it does most Republican administrations, — will soar at a slightly lower rate. China will remain a powerful adversary and valuable trade partner and because of this conundrum, Joe Biden is likely to be as inconsistent in his China policy as Donald Trump. Under Biden, the American military will remain the most powerful in the world by an exponential factor. People with better experience and greater respect will take over cabinet and advisory positions to the benefit of all. There will be an attempt to better fund social programs, reinstate regulations that were vindictively over-turned, and seek environmental solutions that are long overdue, and potentially beneficial to the economy. You don't have to view them as infringements on your personal freedoms. In most cases they make our world a better place. There aren't many card carrying Socialists out there, but they would laugh at anyone describing Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as socialists. There aren't many true fascists out there, either, and most of us would like to keep it that way. There are two sides to every story, but right now one of them is dangerously insane. If you love America and can't bring yourself to vote for Joe Biden, it would be sporting of you not to vote for Donald Trump. He's that bad. 

Perhaps the post of the this election cycle.  :thumbs:worship:clap

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16 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

But I'm mindful of the warning Michael Moore gave in 2016 and repeated this year: Many Trump supporters prefer the shadows, thwarting the pollsters, and avoiding judgement for supporting a racist, divisive, possibly insane President. Given the chance to be anonymous, they still bring big numbers that will be breaking late. 

To your point, while I was driving around during noon today, doing 'honey-dos', I heard Rush give a lot of credibility to the Iowa poll where it shows Biden fading and Trump rising.  This is giving hope to trumpists that 2016 is about to repeat itself.  I understand that the Iowa poll is supposedly has this reputation of high integrity and low bias.   So this is the hope tRump supporters are cling to today.

 

The actual poll here:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/

 

This CNN article below reflects what Rush was saying and what Michael Moore is saying and what you, Guy, are saying - it aint over until it is over. And it won't be over when it 'should' be over.   If Trump is lagging behind slightly on election night, we will have lawsuit jungle like we've never seen before - making 2000 seem like a pebble on the road. If Trump somehow has a lead, we will see lawsuits trying to shut down counting to 12 midnight election day.  What is needed is an early electoral blowout to take the wind out of trump's lawsuit sails.

 

The article goes into CYA mode at the end to paint the picture both ways. 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/politics/iowa-poll-selzer/index.html

 

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A new Des Moines Register/Selzer and Co. poll from Iowa likely voters has President Donald Trump leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by a 48% to 41% margin.

The average poll in Iowa has Trump up by 2 points.
What's the point: Let's be very clear, Biden is the favorite in polling to take back the White House. He leads in the swing states necessary to get 270 electoral votes, and those leads are wider than the ones Hillary Clinton had four years ago.
The Selzer poll is an exception to that rule. If it is correct, Trump is in a far better position than assumed, and we could be in for a much closer race than many expect.

 

 
 
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But as I noted at the top, the average poll in Iowa paints the picture of a race that is too close to call. There are plenty of polls taken within the last few weeks that show Biden or Trump slightly ahead or slightly behind (Monmouth University, New York Times/Siena College and Quinnipiac University).
The reason why the Selzer poll gives Democrats chills and Republicans hope is the history of the Selzer poll. Four years ago, the final Selzer poll had Trump up by an identical 7 points in Iowa. Trump won by 9 points.
Just like then, this 2020 poll comes in the midst of polling in a lot of other states that have Trump in trouble.
Moreover, the 2016 example is not the only time in which Selzer was unafraid to publish a seeming outlier that proved to be correct. (The 2008 Democratic Iowa caucuses were another example.)
All that being said, there are many reasons to doubt that this Iowa poll is really telling us all that much. While Selzer is a fantastic pollster, every pollster has the occasional outlier. Selzer has been wrong before. Pollsters aren't magicians. It's the sign of a good pollster that they are willing to publish polls that don't look like other ones.

 

 

 

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