The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election

[Moiraine]

3 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

I wish this wasn't a successful tactic. We don't need 20 Democrats in the race. We need three or four with a realistic shot.

 

 

Buttigieg wouldn’t have made that list 2 months ago. They can weed them out later. Hopefully by the first couple debates.

[TGHusker]

31 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

Buttigieg wouldn’t have made that list 2 months ago. They can weed them out later. Hopefully by the first couple debates.

I suspect the first debate will be enough - if not before. If they aren't polling well, there should be a cut off point - like the GOP did last time when they had 16 candidates.  Some had to sit at the kiddie table. 

[TGHusker]

37 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

I wish this wasn't a successful tactic. We don't need 20 Democrats in the race. We need three or four with a realistic shot.

I agree - I hope we can get it down to 4 - 6 max real quick so we can study each and so they can be vetted via the debates without having to do sound bites all the time. 

[Ratt Mhule]

4 hours ago, TGHusker said:

Pete compares Berine followers to Trump followers while distancing himself from Berine

 

 

https://nypost.com/2019/04/21/pete-buttigieg-compares-bernie-supporters-and-trump-fans/

 

 

I have no idea the infatuation with this guy. He has little to offer in terms of policy positions. He literally said the dems are too concerned about policy. Wtf, isnt that what its all about and how to bring about change. He has flip flopped more times since announcing hes running than I can count. Says hes for medicare for all and then a week later hes for a public buy-in. Maybe this is why? Secret meetings with big donors, Pelosi, Schumer and others to smear Bernie. Just what we need, another bought off politician. 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/bernie-sanders-democratic-party.amp.html

 

Bernie is not perfect. I dont think any candidate is. But he has not flip flopped on his positions. He was pushing universal healthcare since the 90s and saying the same things as he is now. Getting out of wars for years. Climate change for years, etc. He is not bought off by corporations and big donors even though they have tried multiple times. 

[Danny Bateman]

22 minutes ago, Frott Scost said:

 

I have no idea the infatuation with this guy. He has little to offer in terms of policy positions. He literally said the dems are too concerned about policy. Wtf, isnt that what its all about and how to bring about change. He has flip flopped more times since announcing hes running than I can count. Says hes for medicare for all and then a week later hes for a public buy-in. Maybe this is why? Secret meetings with big donors, Pelosi, Schumer and others to smear Bernie. Just what we need, another bought off politician.  

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/bernie-sanders-democratic-party.amp.html

 

Bernie is not perfect. I dont think any candidate is. But he has not flip flopped on his positions. He was pushing universal healthcare since the 90s and saying the same things as he is now. Getting out of wars for years. Climate change for years, etc. He is not bought off by corporations and big donors even though they have tried multiple times.  

 

I agree with you on the lack of flip-flopping piece, for the most part. As well as the money in politics bit (Hallelujah!).

 

But one thing progressives have to consider going into 2020 - these issues are incredibly important and powerful for them, but are they outside of progressive circles? I'm not talking in a 9 out of 10 people agree on expanded background checks on gun purchases, polls-tested kind of way, either. In the kind of way that is going to withstand the inevitable demagoguing and lampooning Trump and the right-wing hit machine are going to put these ideas through. The kind of civic consensus that's stronger than petty partisan tribalism. You know the Republicans are going to pull out every single stop to make sure whomever the Dem nominee is (and whatever ideas they have) are made as toxic as possible to the masses.

 

It really sucks, but I still strongly contend the single most important trait for a presidential candidate is charisma. It's been that way forever. Who would you rather have a beer with? Who has the better debate zingers? Whose stump speech makes you feel the best? Trump beat Hillary in 2016 largely because he appealed to a broader swath of the electorate than she did, despite both of them having trash likability.

 

Viewed in that context, someone like Buttigieg or Beto or anyone halfway likeable isn't a bad choice.

[RedDenver]

40 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

I agree with you on the lack of flip-flopping piece, for the most part. As well as the money in politics bit (Hallelujah!).

 

But one thing progressives have to consider going into 2020 - these issues are incredibly important and powerful for them, but are they outside of progressive circles? I'm not talking in a 9 out of 10 people agree on expanded background checks on gun purchases, polls-tested kind of way, either. In the kind of way that is going to withstand the inevitable demagoguing and lampooning Trump and the right-wing hit machine are going to put these ideas through. The kind of civic consensus that's stronger than petty partisan tribalism. You know the Republicans are going to pull out every single stop to make sure whomever the Dem nominee is (and whatever ideas they have) are made as toxic as possible to the masses.

 

It really sucks, but I still strongly contend the single most important trait for a presidential candidate is charisma. It's been that way forever. Who would you rather have a beer with? Who has the better debate zingers? Whose stump speech makes you feel the best? Trump beat Hillary in 2016 largely because he appealed to a broader swath of the electorate than she did, despite both of them having trash likability.

 

Viewed in that context, someone like Buttigieg or Beto or anyone halfway likeable isn't a bad choice.

Watch Bernie on the Fox News townhall. IMO he's going to be much, much better going against the right than any of the "centrist" candidates like Pete or Beto.

[Ratt Mhule]

29 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

I agree with you on the lack of flip-flopping piece, for the most part. As well as the money in politics bit (Hallelujah!).

 

But one thing progressives have to consider going into 2020 - these issues are incredibly important and powerful for them, but are they outside of progressive circles? I'm not talking in a 9 out of 10 people agree on expanded background checks on gun purchases, polls-tested kind of way, either. In the kind of way that is going to withstand the inevitable demagoguing and lampooning Trump and the right-wing hit machine are going to put these ideas through. The kind of civic consensus that's stronger than petty partisan tribalism. You know the Republicans are going to pull out every single stop to make sure whomever the Dem nominee is (and whatever ideas they have) are made as toxic as possible to the masses.

 

It really sucks, but I still strongly contend the single most important trait for a presidential candidate is charisma. It's been that way forever. Who would you rather have a beer with? Who has the better debate zingers? Whose stump speech makes you feel the best? Trump beat Hillary in 2016 largely because he appealed to a broader swath of the electorate than she did, despite both of them having trash likability.

 

Viewed in that context, someone like Buttigieg or Beto or anyone halfway likeable isn't a bad choice.

 

I mean dont get me wrong, Buttigieg is not my first choice but if he is a the democratic nominee, he will have my vote. 

 

As far as the progressive policies withstanding the right-wing hit pieces, just look at the Fox news town hall with Bernie. I mean the republicans will say the room was filled with a bunch of “bernie bros” but lets get real. Its fox news, no way those people were all progressive bernie supporters. But when the moderator asked the people if they would be open to medicare for all type plan, most of them room raised their hand and cheered. When he called for getting out of these never ending wars, most of the room cheered. When he called for more taxes on big corporations, most of the room cheered. When he called for a $15 minimum wage, most of the room cheered. These are things the majority of Americans think are good and the polls show it. Fox news poll actually shows Bernie ahead of Trump by 7 points. 

 

I just dont like the flip-flopping that a lot of these other candidates are doing, including Buttigieg. They say one thing during their CNN town hall and then a week later its something different. Also, the secret meetings with big donors and other corporate dems trying to sabbotage one of their own candidates. Doesnt sit well with me for multiple reasons. 

[Moiraine]

The DNC better not try to stop Sanders this time. 

[Ratt Mhule]

1 hour ago, Moiraine said:

The DNC better not try to stop Sanders this time. 

 

They are. I posted this above but it may have gotten lost in the shuffle. I would say he should run as an independent but that would definetely give Trump the win, so Im glad hes not. 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/bernie-sanders-democratic-party.amp.html

[Danny Bateman]

OK, but personally I think you guys happen to be underrating the onslaught a candidate Bernie would be put under leading up the general election and how fungible his support might be among that type of Fox News town hall demographic. Personally a sample size of one town hall on Fox News isn't enough to convince me he can hold his own when he really gets put under the microscope of a general election.

 

@Frott Scost I happen to agree personally with most of those policies. I don't ding him for his consistency in most of his views. But it is easy to be consistent when you spend that long as a relatively obscure elected official in a safe seat in lillywhite Vermont. As long as voters in your state like you, you can have unconventional views. He hasn't had enough congressional support to ever enact any of his policies in a meaningful way - which is another concern I have about a President Sanders. How does he get anything done outside of one reconciliation bill at year that can pass with 50 yes votes? It's not out of the realm of possibility that we elect a D as POTUS and retain Republican control of the Senate.

 

I know what the polling says. I do think he'd enter a GE as a slight polling favorite to beat Trump. But could he maintain that lead and his popularity under scrutiny? Keep in mind that Bloomberg was going to hop in the race as a centrist of Trump and Bernie were the candidates in 2016. Dems took back the House on the strength of a blue wave in purple, suburban districts who hate Trump but don't love leftist policies.

 

If Bernie can't win those suburban districts, he's dead in the water. Will they go for him over Trump if they're hammered with how much their taxes will go up under President Sanders?

 

Look at the moderates on the board here - they all mostly despise Trump and are willing to vote for a reasonable D in 2020 but don't love Bernie at all.

[funhusker]

1 hour ago, Danny Bateman said:

OK, but personally I think you guys happen to be underrating the onslaught a candidate Bernie would be put under leading up the general election and how fungible his support might be among that type of Fox News town hall demographic. Personally a sample size of one town hall on Fox News isn't enough to convince me he can hold his own when he really gets put under the microscope of a general election.

 

@Frott Scost I happen to agree personally with most of those policies. I don't ding him for his consistency in most of his views. But it is easy to be consistent when you spend that long as a relatively obscure elected official in a safe seat in lillywhite Vermont. As long as voters in your state like you, you can have unconventional views. He hasn't had enough congressional support to ever enact any of his policies in a meaningful way - which is another concern I have about a President Sanders. How does he get anything done outside of one reconciliation bill at year that can pass with 50 yes votes? It's not out of the realm of possibility that we elect a D as POTUS and retain Republican control of the Senate.

 

I know what the polling says. I do think he'd enter a GE as a slight polling favorite to beat Trump. But could he maintain that lead and his popularity under scrutiny? Keep in mind that Bloomberg was going to hop in the race as a centrist of Trump and Bernie were the candidates in 2016. Dems took back the House on the strength of a blue wave in purple, suburban districts who hate Trump but don't love leftist policies.

 

If Bernie can't win those suburban districts, he's dead in the water. Will they go for him over Trump if they're hammered with how much their taxes will go up under President Sanders?

 

Look at the moderates on the board here - they're all mostly despise Trump and are willing to vote for a reasonable D in 2020 but don't love Bernie at all.

I'd vote for Bernie over Trump in a heartbeat.  But I would not promise a Bernie vote in 2024 by any means.

 

I think you are spot on!

[Ratt Mhule]

Well if you love the centrist democrat/republican, status quo. Nothing will really change candidate, Amy Klobachar is your woman!

[RedDenver]

4 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

Personally a sample size of one town hall on Fox News isn't enough to convince me he can hold his own when he really gets put under the microscope of a general election.

I don't understand this argument at all since it literally applies to every single candidate. In fact, Bernie is the only one who's run as a Presidential candidate before (and Biden if he runs). Plus we heard the same thing last time and how much better Hillary would do in the general, but she didn't do well. It's a crap shoot who'll do well and who won't in some future race, but a good place to start would be with candidates that don't have serious baggage (like being under an FBI investigation).

[RedDenver]

Buttigieg has some explaining to do:

Buttigieg's Police Issues Go Beyond Secret Tapes

 

Firing a whistleblower and then firing an attorney for not preventing an investigation that the public safety board voted for is not a good look.

[Danny Bateman]

29 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

I don't understand this argument at all since it literally applies to every single candidate. In fact, Bernie is the only one who's run as a Presidential candidate before (and Biden if he runs). Plus we heard the same thing last time and how much better Hillary would do in the general, but she didn't do well. It's a crap shoot who'll do well and who won't in some future race, but a good place to start would be with candidates that don't have serious baggage (like being under an FBI investigation). 

 

Bernie has run but hasn't been put under the microscope of being a party's nominee.

 

He's got a fair bit more baggage than you're letting on. It may not matter much within progressive circles or even the Democratic primary, but it sure as heck will to people who don't fit in that category.

 

Another issue I failed to mention is right now we're discussing big policy ideas like M4A or a Green New Deal, which is good. But the discussion changes for a lot of folks once the focus shifts to how to pay for things. And I know he's going to say raising taxes will be offset by doing away with outrageous premiums, deductibles, etc. But it's dangerous in America to run on raising taxes for people because a huge chunk of America is going to freak out about that no matter what it gets them.