The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election

[Danny Bateman]

3 hours ago, funhusker said:

I'd vote for Bernie over Trump in a heartbeat.  But I would not promise a Bernie vote in 2024 by any means.

 

I think you are spot on!

 

You were one of the folks I was thinking of when I said that. Good to know I was basically correct.

 

There's a counter argument that a better electoral strategy in 2020 than going with a very popular populists like Bernie would be staying with a moderate that won't rock the boat too much and can continue pulling over suburban, middle to upper middle class white folks who hate Trump who are currently fleeing the GOP as the become increasingly aware they're well-off but not well-off enough to be beneficiaries of GOP policies.

 

It may not result in my ideal policies, but I think it's a fair argument that if Dems strictly care about denying Trump a second term they should reload with center-left policies with someone who isn't Hillary that can go into the Rust Belt and kick Trump's a$$ with broad working class and suburban appeal.

[RedDenver]

10 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

You were one of the folks I was thinking of when I said that. Good to know I was basically correct.

 

There's a counter argument that a better electoral strategy in 2020 than going with a very popular populists like Bernie would be staying with a moderate that won't rock the boat too much and can continue pulling over suburban, middle to upper middle class white folks who hate Trump who are currently fleeing the GOP as the become increasingly aware they're well-off but not well-off enough to be beneficiaries of GOP policies.

 

It may not result in my ideal policies, but I think it's a fair argument that if Dems strictly care about denying Trump a second term they should reload with center-left policies with someone who isn't Hillary that can go into the Rust Belt and kick Trump's a$$ with broad working class and suburban appeal.

This already failed in 2016, why should we try it again? Remember Schumer's famous quote: “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”

Chuck Schumer: Democrats Will Lose Blue-Collar Whites But Gain in the Suburbs

 

 

[Danny Bateman]

29 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

This already failed in 2016, why should we try it again? Remember Schumer's famous quote: “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”

Chuck Schumer: Democrats Will Lose Blue-Collar Whites But Gain in the Suburbs

 

 

 

Because Hillary Clinton was uniquely unlikable. She simultaneously failed to excite the base and got demolished by Trump in working class/no college whites. She actually did pretty well with suburban middle class whites.

 

Someone who can appeal to all those groups is key. Bernie checks box 1 (mostly) and 2 but would send box 3 running for the hills. A moderate, especially one of the red state guys or Biden, could appeal to all three. Biden would particularly cut into Trump's support among no college whites due to his years and years of union support. Bernie would no doubt do well in that regard himself.

[TGHusker]

7 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Because Hillary Clinton was uniquely unlikable. She simultaneously failed to excite the base and got demolished by Trump in working class/no college whites. She actually did pretty well with suburban middle class whites.

 

Someone who can appeal to all those groups is key. Bernie checks box 1 (mostly) and 2 but would send box 3 running for the hills. A moderate, especially one of the red state guys or Biden, could appeal to all three. Biden would particularly cut into Trump's support among no college whites due to his years and years of union support. Bernie would no doubt do well in that regard himself.

Maybe the former Colo governor  wt the funny name.  Hickenlooper     Whenever I see his name I think of Red Skelton and his character  Clem Kadiddlehopper

Most of you are too young to know about Red Skelton. 

 

[RedDenver]

1 hour ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Because Hillary Clinton was uniquely unlikable. She simultaneously failed to excite the base and got demolished by Trump in working class/no college whites. She actually did pretty well with suburban middle class whites.

 

Someone who can appeal to all those groups is key. Bernie checks box 1 (mostly) and 2 but would send box 3 running for the hills. A moderate, especially one of the red state guys or Biden, could appeal to all three. Biden would particularly cut into Trump's support among no college whites due to his years and years of union support. Bernie would no doubt do well in that regard himself.

I see this argument a lot, but I haven't seen any data to back it up. Voters don't vote for left/right, but for a variety of reasons including party, anti-establishment, policies, etc. So it's possible that Bernie could do better among conservatives/Republicans than a "moderate" would. I think the country is against the two parties and the establishment and that populism will be a significant factor in 2020, but we'll have to see.

[Moiraine]

There are lots of Republicans who would have voted for Sanders if he had won the nomination.

[TGHusker]

Trump may have a more substantial opponent than former gov Weld.  Maryland Gov  Hogan is considering a run against Trump. 

 

This guy sees the truth as reflected in the quotes below.  He also calls out the RNC blind support of Trump in the primaries. 

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-hogan-presidential-potential-20190423-story.html

Quote

 

After his speech, Hogan told a swarm of reporters that he was disturbed by the revelations about Trump’s conduct disclosed in the report on the investigation into whether his campaign officials colluded with the Russian government to interfere with the 2016 presidential election.

“There was some very disturbing stuff found in the report,” Hogan said. “Just because aides did not follow his orders — that’s the only reason why we don’t have obstruction of justice.”

Mueller’s report detailed at least 10 instances in which Trump tried to interfere with the federal investigation, including when the president ordered White House counsel Don McGahn to have Mueller removed. The report said McGahn refused. 

“Did he obstruct justice? He tried to,” Hogan said in an interview after the event. “Of course he did. He attempted to over and over again.”

Apart from U.S. senators Mitt Romney of Utah and Susan Collins of Maine, few Republicans have spoken out against Trump since the report’s release last week. Asked why that was the case, Hogan suggested many are afraid of the president.

“There’s no profiles in courage here,” Hogan said. “They’re afraid of being primaried. They’re afraid of being tweeted about. Very few of us are willing to say what we really think.”

Maryland’s governor said he expected backlash from Trump “loyalists,” but said he was prepared for that.

 

“I really am disgusted that people aren’t speaking out,” Hogan said. “Yes, I’m going to get criticized. Yes, people aren’t going to like it. I think it’s important to say what you think. I think it’s important for somebody to say the truth.”

Hogan’s comments about potentially running for office were his strongest and clearest to date.

He openly discussed strategy — including attracting the votes of Democrats and independents in states where Republicans hold primaries open to anyone, regardless of party affiliation — and said he thought a short campaign could be beneficial to a Republican challenger to Trump.

Hogan said he wouldn’t have to decide whether to run for months.

“I would not run just to be a spoiler for the president,” Hogan said. “I’m pretty good at retail politics. That's how I won my state with no money.”

Hogan largely relied on public financing to win office in 2014; he raised $19.2 million in the election cycle leading up to his victory last fall for second term.

Hogan also criticized the Republican National Committee for lining up behind Trump instead of being open to challengers.

“To change the rules and insist on 100 percent loyalty to the ‘Dear Leader,’ it doesn’t sound very much like the Republican Party that I grew up in,” Hogan said.

 

 

[Danny Bateman]

22 hours ago, RedDenver said:

I see this argument a lot, but I haven't seen any data to back it up. Voters don't vote for left/right, but for a variety of reasons including party, anti-establishment, policies, etc. So it's possible that Bernie could do better among conservatives/Republicans than a "moderate" would. I think the country is against the two parties and the establishment and that populism will be a significant factor in 2020, but we'll have to see.

 

At the same time, is there any data supporting the assertion that Bernie could do better? I hew pretty closely to the data-driven crowd, but right now all we have are general election polls, for the most part. All of them show Biden or Bernie with a lead. Hypothetical general election matchups between a Dem and Trump continue to show Biden as a stronger general election opponent. Polls aren't the gospel truth, but these are about all we have right now, until more state-level polls come out.

 

Partisan affiliation is really pretty strong. Trump regularly enjoys somewhere between 85 and 90% support within his own party. I don't think you're wrong that anti-establishment sentiment is still high, but is it high enough to overcome partisan tribalism? I don't know.

[Ratt Mhule]

35 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

At the same time, is there any data supporting the assertion that Bernie could do better? I hew pretty closely to the data-driven crowd, but right now all we have are general election polls, for the most part. All of them show Biden or Bernie with a lead. Hypothetical general election matchups between a Dem and Trump continue to show Biden as a stronger general election opponent. Polls aren't the gospel truth, but these are about all we have right now, until more state-level polls come out.

 

Partisan affiliation is really pretty strong. Trump regularly enjoys somewhere between 85 and 90% support within his own party. I don't think you're wrong that anti-establishment sentiment is still high, but is it high enough to overcome partisan tribalism? I don't know.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/sanders-releases-internal-poll-showing-lead-over-trump-pa-wi-n997281

 

Not sure how factual these internal polls are. So take it with a grain of salt, but looking good so far in the battleground states. 

[Danny Bateman]

15 minutes ago, Frott Scost said:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/sanders-releases-internal-poll-showing-lead-over-trump-pa-wi-n997281

 

Not sure how factual these internal polls are. So take it with a grain of salt, but looking good so far in the battleground states.  

 

That's good to see, but you're right - internal polls usually aren't worth the paper they're printed on (weird that that phrase almost doesn't apply to our society anymore).

 

I'll be curious to see more state polls, though. I do know people frequently cite Sanders popularity as a reason for him to win the nomination, but look here at Clinton's favoribility after the GOP decided to start treating her like the presumptive nominee:

 

 

I worry he could fall off a similar cliff if and when he becomes the singular focus of their ire. But of course this is all just opinion and conjuncture, so I could be completely off.

[RedDenver]

10 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

At the same time, is there any data supporting the assertion that Bernie could do better? I hew pretty closely to the data-driven crowd, but right now all we have are general election polls, for the most part. All of them show Biden or Bernie with a lead. Hypothetical general election matchups between a Dem and Trump continue to show Biden as a stronger general election opponent. Polls aren't the gospel truth, but these are about all we have right now, until more state-level polls come out.

 

Partisan affiliation is really pretty strong. Trump regularly enjoys somewhere between 85 and 90% support within his own party. I don't think you're wrong that anti-establishment sentiment is still high, but is it high enough to overcome partisan tribalism? I don't know.

I'm arguing against your assumption that a "centrist" would appeal to more groups than Bernie. I agree there isn't enough data to say whether that's true or whether Bernie would do better or worse, so saying one candidate or another is more electable or appeals to more groups is just an unsubstantiated opinion.

[Danny Bateman]

27 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

I'm arguing against your assumption that a "centrist" would appeal to more groups than Bernie. I agree there isn't enough data to say whether that's true or whether Bernie would do better or worse, so saying one candidate or another is more electable or appeals to more groups is just an unsubstantiated opinion.

 

Anything at this point is an unsubstantiated opinion. Either of us could be wrong. I'm just out here kicking the tires.

 

Here's another piece of evidence that his appeal might not be as widespread as you think.

 

 

[BigRedBuster]

 

[RedDenver]

12 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Anything at this point is an unsubstantiated opinion. Either of us could be wrong. I'm just out here kicking the tires.

 

Here's another piece of evidence that his appeal might not be as widespread as you think.

 

 

I agree either of us could be wrong.

 

20 people is more anecdote than evidence. Here's an analysis from 538 that's not favorable for Bernie:

Bernie Sanders Can Win, But He Isn’t Polling Like A Favorite

[Danny Bateman]

11 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

 

Donald Trump is the Beth Mowins of 2020 commentary. Anybody know where the mute button is?