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The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election


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3 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Much like Trump did in 2016 with things like the Muslim ban and the wall, she's just playing to her audience.

 

Remember how popular his quip about Clinton being in prison in the debates was?

 

But it's gross and Moiraine is correct. She should be campaigning on fixing the loopholes that let a scumbag like Trump commit all the crimes he's committed scot-free, not on throwing him in the clink.

 

I wish someone would campaign in a way that is more mature, dignified and respectful to our intelligence than the way Trump did it.....instead of stooping to his lows.

 

This is a major problem with having Trump as President.  He has moved the peg a long ways as to what our standards of comments and actions are.

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1 hour ago, Danny Bateman said:

Do you honestly think politics now is the same as it was for Roosevelt or Reagan? This is a major reason people ding Biden for thinking he can work with Republicans. Even the more recent Reagan tax cuts passed the Senate with somewhere between 70-90ish yea votes, depending on which specific vote you cite. I think if you think Bernie can gin up that amount of support for M4A you're kidding yourself. I think it'd be difficult to get moderates like Manchin or Sinema on board even we nuked the filibuster. But again, just my opinion so I could be wrong in this.

Of course politics is different - it always is, but using the bully pulpit has worked multiple times before and in different eras, so it's not unreasonable to think it could work again. M4A support polls around 60-70% (82% among registered Democrats, 66% among independents, and 50% among registered Republicans) plus healthcare polls as the top issue among voters, so I think you're kidding yourself if you think Bernie can't drum up public support to put pressure on politicians like Manchin and Sinema. 

 

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I already addressed Biden's legislative history above. I think that Biden currently runs stronger in some battleground states where important Senate races will happen (think IA/NC/ME/GA/AZ... etc etc.) matters. But polling is obviously subject to change.

There's not a lot of polling to draw strong conclusions from, but while Biden still leads Bernie in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, his polling is weaker than his national polling numbers. But Biden is stronger in South Carolina than his national numbers. I'm not sure how much any of that matters though.

 

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The bolded is absolutely true. In a way Trump has helped a lot of Dems understand the importance of separation of powers and even federalism! I don't know that I'd take another term of Trump for that trade, though. That likely means another Bert Kavanaugh takes RBG's seat on SCOTUS and probably Thomas's as well and any progressive legislation during our lifetimes is pretty much guaranteed to be p#ssing into the wind if sent to the courts. The plan has to be win now and win big.

Trump can't pack the courts if the Dems hold the Senate - in fact the precedent for not even holding a vote until after the election has already been set. A Repub-held Senate can block a Dem President from getting an court appointments if they wanted.

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23 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Of course politics is different - it always is, but using the bully pulpit has worked multiple times before and in different eras, so it's not unreasonable to think it could work again. M4A support polls around 60-70% (82% among registered Democrats, 66% among independents, and 50% among registered Republicans) plus healthcare polls as the top issue among voters, so I think you're kidding yourself if you think Bernie can't drum up public support to put pressure on politicians like Manchin and Sinema.  

 

There's not a lot of polling to draw strong conclusions from, but while Biden still leads Bernie in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, his polling is weaker than his national polling numbers. But Biden is stronger in South Carolina than his national numbers. I'm not sure how much any of that matters though. 

  

Trump can't pack the courts if the Dems hold the Senate - in fact the precedent for not even holding a vote until after the election has already been set. A Repub-held Senate can block a Dem President from getting an court appointments if they wanted. 

 

That's fine, we don't have to agree on this. I'd be curious to hear how effective anyone else here thinks bully pulpitting senators from red states would work but I doubt anyone has followed this conversation this far down into the weeds.

 

As far as SCOTUS goes, it's going to have to be a sizeable Dem margin, because there's a real risk those same red state senators would crossover and vote for Trump nominees like Manchin has already done. For any candidate winning back the Senate is imperative.

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1 hour ago, Danny Bateman said:

Lineups for the first Democratic debate are out.

 

 

 

Night two will be fascinating for me.  I'm really hoping Yang will have a strong voice and deliver against some top name candidates.

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17 minutes ago, NM11046 said:

@sho I  know you have a hot button for Yang ... thoughts on this statement?

 

 

 

My thoughts, he is saying instead of focusing on how to arrest trump, lets focus on how to beat trump.  Don't have politicians focusing on arresting opponents, that's what developing world countries do.  Politicians focus on winning and doing what's best for the citizens, let the law handle arresting/punishing politicians.    That's how I took it.   

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2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

I wonder if he will fire Fox News. 

 

 

 

I certainly hope this increased understanding of economic policy hurts Trump, but it's really important that everyone realizes these policies (other than tariffs) have been pushed by Republicans and allowed by plenty of Democrats for years, and should be addressed by everyone running for national, state, and local office.

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