Guy Chamberlin Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 3 hours ago, Ulty said: When I think about Trump, and then Biden, I am reminded of something Alfred said in "The Dark Knight" when the criminal underworld fell under control of the Joker: "in their desperation, they turned to a man they didn't fully understand." In 2016, Republicans were so desperate to win the white house back that they disregarded whatever was left of their morals and ethics, and now Trump has irreparably damaged the GOP and the whole country. Now, the country is once again desperate, this time to kick Trump to the curb at all costs. But we can't be so blindly desperate that we end up electing another buffoon. I'm not sure about these conclusions. Conventional wisdom and polling prior to the 2016 election showed Donald Trump had huge negatives working against him, and showed him losing in double digits to Hillary Clinton as late as 11 days before the election. The RNC hated him. The Koch Brothers didn't support him. Fox News actively tried to sabotage him in the first debate. Those were the people desperate to win back the White House. But they were over-ruled by average voters, who preferred Trump because they actually hated the current political system and viewed Trump as an outsider. I think those voters understood Trump perfectly well -- at least the character Trump was playing. He was the outsider who would drain the swamp. He was the billionaire who would make them all rich. He was the shoot-from-the-hip guy who drove liberals crazy. And he was speaking the barely coded language of white privilege when he promised to Make America Great Again. I'm sure none of those voters thought they were sacrificing their morals and ethics to get a Republican in the White House. The GOP had jettisoned moral consistency long before this election. If anything, people were desperate for change. That we could have, and perhaps should have had Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders in the general election for President of the U.S. is pretty remarkable. I don't think many people took away the right message from 2016. If you look at the numbers, there's still not a ton of buyers remorse among Trump voters. His base is solid even if defectors get a lot of publicity, and the GOP has figured out that it can run wild with Trump at the helm. The DNC is hoping Trump chaos will make America yearn for the relative comfort of Obama, Hillary, and Biden, but I think people are still hungry for systemic change. 3 Link to comment
Danny Bateman Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 There's always a chunk of people who want systemic change and there's always an opposite group that wants the status quo. From what I've seen from spending time in red America, there's also a chunk of people who voted for Trump in the past and are probably reliable GOP voters who are ready to bail on him and vote for a Dem if the nominee is acceptable to them. But from talking to them they're largely pretty freaked out by talk of socialism and bigger government. Culturally these folks will never support those ideas. How big is each chunk of people? Who knows. But I'm going to assume the last group is somewhat unevenly distributed into Rust Belt swing states and that's why Biden polls best there of all the candidates. Lots of people view him as an inoffensive, boring moderate who's nonetheless much preferable to Trump. 1 Link to comment
RedDenver Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 Just now, Danny Bateman said: There's always a chunk of people who want systemic change and there's always an opposite group that wants the status quo. From what I've seen from spending time in red America, there's also a chunk of people who voted for Trump in the past and are probably reliable GOP voters who are ready to bail on him and vote for a Dem if the nominee is acceptable to them. But from talking to them they're largely pretty freaked out by talk of socialism and bigger government. Culturally these folks will never support those ideas. How big is each chunk of people? Who knows. But I'm going to assume the last group is somewhat unevenly distributed into Rust Belt swing states and that's why Biden polls best there of all the candidates. Lots of people view him as an inoffensive, boring moderate who's nonetheless much preferable to Trump. I fear Biden is the most likely of the top candidates to lose to Trump. Having a campaign strategy of making fewer public appearances is never a good sign. Link to comment
TGHusker Posted September 9, 2019 Author Share Posted September 9, 2019 On 9/6/2019 at 1:00 PM, Guy Chamberlin said: I'm not sure about these conclusions. Conventional wisdom and polling prior to the 2016 election showed Donald Trump had huge negatives working against him, and showed him losing in double digits to Hillary Clinton as late as 11 days before the election. The RNC hated him. The Koch Brothers didn't support him. Fox News actively tried to sabotage him in the first debate. Those were the people desperate to win back the White House. But they were over-ruled by average voters, who preferred Trump because they actually hated the current political system and viewed Trump as an outsider. I think those voters understood Trump perfectly well -- at least the character Trump was playing. He was the outsider who would drain the swamp. He was the billionaire who would make them all rich. He was the shoot-from-the-hip guy who drove liberals crazy. And he was speaking the barely coded language of white privilege when he promised to Make America Great Again. I'm sure none of those voters thought they were sacrificing their morals and ethics to get a Republican in the White House. The GOP had jettisoned moral consistency long before this election. If anything, people were desperate for change. That we could have, and perhaps should have had Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders in the general election for President of the U.S. is pretty remarkable. I don't think many people took away the right message from 2016. If you look at the numbers, there's still not a ton of buyers remorse among Trump voters. His base is solid even if defectors get a lot of publicity, and the GOP has figured out that it can run wild with Trump at the helm. The DNC is hoping Trump chaos will make America yearn for the relative comfort of Obama, Hillary, and Biden, but I think people are still hungry for systemic change. Good review, but I'm more concerned about this. Say it isn't so Guy... https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/iiif/2/nbu_morton_ver01%2Fdata%2Fsn99021999%2F0028077912A%2F1914091301%2F0644.jp2/3430,3698,1350,1286/681,648/0/default.jpg Link to comment
knapplc Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 I'm liking Warren more & more every day. 1 1 Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, knapplc said: I'm liking Warren more & more every day. Wow...So...let's see. A news station proclaiming that a certain party's candidate needs to be stopped. Oh....and get this.....this is part of NBC that Trump thinks is fake news and needs to lose their licensing. Link to comment
Ratt Mhule Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 This week in polls: Sanders now leads in NH, Nevada, Colorado and is within the margin of error in Iowa. Ive been watching a little of his latest rallies. His talking points especially on MFA are so much better. I said in the first debate he needs to explain it more so people can understand. Hes now starting to call premiums a “private tax”. Yes! Finally! This is the way people understand how they are getting screwed. You pay taxes and you also pay a private tax. Plus copays and deductibles. Whoever his speechwriter is needs a raise. 1 Link to comment
Ratt Mhule Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 If every newsroom had a Krystal Ball in it we wouldnt have so many blind sheep in this country. What a breath of fresh air. 1 1 Link to comment
RedDenver Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 4 hours ago, Frott Scost said: If every newsroom had a Krystal Ball in it we wouldnt have so many blind sheep in this country. What a breath of fresh air. Yeah, that youtube channel is great. Lot of guests from across the political spectrum and substantive discussions. Link to comment
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