Jump to content
TGHusker

The 2020 Presidential Election - Primaries

Recommended Posts

I think a lot of the polls are missing the fact that anyone who isn't a Trump supporter will vote for anyone who wins the Democrat nomination.

 

I'll vote for whomever wins the nomination. I think a lot of people share that view.

  • Plus1 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, knapplc said:

I think a lot of the polls are missing the fact that anyone who isn't a Trump supporter will vote for anyone who wins the Democrat nomination.

 

I'll vote for whomever wins the nomination. I think a lot of people share that view.

 

 

The polls are asking "Who would you vote for if the 2 candidates are Trump and X"

By the nature of the question, the polls aren't missing that. The differences were seeing are due to people that aren't gungho against Trump, so there are some Democrats they would vote for over him and others they wouldn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Moiraine said:

 

 

The polls are asking "Who would you vote for if the 2 candidates are Trump and X"

 

 

I get that, but I think that tinges the question. The question should be - will you vote for trump or not trump in 2020?  And I think when you ask it that way, a lot of folks will answer "not trump."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, knapplc said:

I get that, but I think that tinges the question. The question should be - will you vote for trump or not trump in 2020?  And I think when you ask it that way, a lot of folks will answer "not trump."

 

 

And enough people would answer your question with "It depends on who the candidate is," which is why sometimes Biden is ahead by 8 points where Sanders is ahead by 5 points. We're talking about a small group of people, but not a nonexistent one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Moiraine said:

 

 

And enough people would answer your question with "It depends on who the candidate is," which is why sometimes Biden is ahead by 8 points where Sanders is ahead by 5 points. We're talking about a small group of people, but not a nonexistent one.

 

Polls aren't message boards where you can opine about the question. They word the question they way they want and you have to answer it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Evan misspelled "Joe Biden".

 

BRB posted this on the last page. That's what the last dozen or more posts have been about.

 

While I like a lot of what Evan says, I disagree with him on this one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, knapplc said:

 

BRB posted this on the last page. That's what the last dozen or more posts have been about.

 

While I like a lot of what Evan says, I disagree with him on this one.

My mistake, I somehow missed that post.

 

Also, the "Why take the risk?" is just dumb. There isn't a "no risk" option.

  • Plus1 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, RedDenver said:

My mistake, I somehow missed that post.

 

Also, the "Why take the risk?" is just dumb. There isn't a "no risk" option.

 

Yeah. He whiffed on that one.

 

There are democrats I'd be less satisfied with for sure, but I'll vote for any of them over trump. And I feel like a not-small percentage of the populace agrees.

  • Plus1 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, knapplc said:

 

Polls aren't message boards where you can opine about the question. They word the question they way they want and you have to answer it.

 

 

You can usually find how they worded the question. They're asking who you'd vote for if the election was between Trump and Biden. Who would you vote for if it's between Trump and Sanders? etc. There is a small % of the population whose votes are being fought over, and they're who changes these margins.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

McMullin wants Trump to lose. You don't have to agree with what he thinks of Sanders' chances, but that doesn't mean he "hates facts."

 

And I don't know why you wrote all of this in response to me. I just said I think Sanders can win. And I would much prefer him over Biden. But even in Michigan, I'm guessing Biden has a better lead against Trump. He polls further ahead of Trump than Sanders in most of the polls I've seen. Those are some of the facts. I do agree though, there is a group of people they probably aren't doing a good job of capturing in these polls, and those people are more likely to vote for Sanders than for Biden. Young people voted in much higher numbers in 2018 than ever before. This is pretty amazing:

 

1072858_1_1115-youthvote_large.jpg?alias

 

 

 

Voter turnout for the midterm was huge for all ages, but older people are almost assuredly tracked better by polls.


McMullin is also conservative which means he wants the most conservative candidate so he can vote for him. Thats fine. Like I said he fundamentally opposes everything Sanders stands for. I just find it funny that democrats always cow tow to republicans ie Biden saying he would run with a republican VP because they think the way to win is to get Trump voters to turn on him. Ask a republican if they would ever run with a democrat to get dem votes and he would laugh in your face and walk away. Democrats need to stop turning their back on their own base and their base agrees more with Sanders than McMullen. So while its fine he has his opinion, he would also say anything to get a moderate conservative as the nominee and that is Biden. 

  • Plus1 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Frott Scost said:

 Former Clinton advisor in 2016

 

 

And then there's Biden. I really doubt his polling numbers are gonna hold up when/if he actually becomes the nominee and they focus on him even more.

 

 

3 hours ago, Frott Scost said:

McMullin is also conservative which means he wants the most conservative candidate so he can vote for him. Thats fine. Like I said he fundamentally opposes everything Sanders stands for. I just find it funny that democrats always cow tow to republicans ie Biden saying he would run with a republican VP because they think the way to win is to get Trump voters to turn on him. Ask a republican if they would ever run with a democrat to get dem votes and he would laugh in your face and walk away. Democrats need to stop turning their back on their own base and their base agrees more with Sanders than McMullen. So while its fine he has his opinion, he would also say anything to get a moderate conservative as the nominee and that is Biden. 

 

 

I don't lump McMullen together with all of those people. He's done everything he can to fight Trump. And I don't think he made the comment to try to stop Sanders from becoming the nominee.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, knapplc said:

 

 

I get that, but I think that tinges the question. The question should be - will you vote for trump or not trump in 2020?  And I think when you ask it that way, a lot of folks will answer "not trump."

 

I see this type of phrasing pop up in polls every now and again. I feel like this does a pretty good job capturing what you're talking about. It roughly comports with Trump's approval rating in some polls. I.e., the 33% who will vote for him is his base and the 54% is everyone else if most people who don't feel strongly about voting one way or the other vote based on whether they actually like Trump. Still only gets us to 87%, which leaves room for undecideds, too.

 

 

The problem is it's not evenly distributed geographically. A lot of that 54% comes from blue areas. And there are a lot of likely Trump voters in places like Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.










×
×
  • Create New...