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The 2020 Presidential Election - Primaries

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24 minutes ago, BlitzFirst said:

@teachercd and @Moiraine

Did you guys miss the part where WaPo backtracked?  One of the sources now says that Bernie didn't say a woman couldn't win.  Affirming trump to be a misogynist pig surely isn't the same as saying a woman can't win.

 

 

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I didn’t miss that. Danny and I have been talking in hypotheticals today. 

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I am getting the impression both Bernie & Warren are enjoying the free press this is getting them. Good friends could easily put out a joint statement saying this is a non-issue, or answer a direct question on camera. Super easy to put this aside & get on to the actual issues - you know, the important stuff?

 

Instead, we get this:

 

 

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The best thing you can do while trying to get a nomination is be ever-present.  

 

Commercials are not important anymore...social media is.

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Bloomberg viewed as the best bet to beat Trump according to one study but has low chance of being nominated by the Dems.

 

 

 
Quote

 

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is viewed as the Democrat most likely to defeat President Trump if nominated, according to a newly released betting market analysis.

However, the analysis from researchers at Standard Chartered Bank, first reported by CNBC, also found that Bloomberg is viewed as having a 10 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

"Our interpretation of online market pricing is that Bloomberg is viewed as having the highest chance among Democrats of beating Trump if nominated. But his nomination probabilities are currently running just over 10 percent," the study states.

 

The research shows that among the top-polling candidates, Bloomberg and former Vice President Joe Biden are the two candidates viewed as having the highest chances of winning given perceptions about how friendly they would be for asset markets.

"Among investors, Bloomberg and Biden are probably viewed as the most asset-market friendly among the Democratic candidates, so their greater implied electability may be why US assets are not showing more stress," the researchers wrote.

Bloomberg, who is self-funding his campaign, has not appeared in the Democratic debates since launching his campaign in late November, as he has failed to meet the donor threshold set by the Democratic National Committee. Still, he has polled near the middle of the primary field.

 

 

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With all this talk of Bernie and Warren, here's an interesting twist I realized the other day:

 

Both of them are senators from states with Republican governors (Phil Scott of VT is running again and likely to win re-election).

 

So, if either of them is the nominee and wins, they will in all likelihood cede their seat to a Republican. Ironically, either of the progressives becoming president makes progressive goals more difficult. 

 

Good news is it sounds like they could resign the Senate early to trigger a quicker special elections (likely in the spring/summer of 2021 depending on the state). 

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23 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

 

 

So far assumptions here have been that A) Warren is lying or B) what Bernie said is being mischaracterized.

 

Though I find it unlikely, a scenario exists wherein the exchange happened pretty much as advertised. You said yourself someone thinking that isn't necessarily wrong. What if Bernie just came right out and said as much? In that scenario Warren would be justifiably pissed off because Bernie would have just flat-out lied about it last night and gotten away with it.

 

Edit: According to this that's exactly what happened. 

 

 

The thing that really puts the lie to what Warren is doing is that her campaign leaked it and this happened a year ago. If Bernie really said this, then she should have come out with it months ago. It's just a politically desperate move because she's behind in the polls. Plus Bernie has more credibility than Warren especially since he's had a consistent message for 3 decades that women could win the presidency. And he backed Warren running in 2015, then he ran when she decided not to.

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9 hours ago, RedDenver said:

The thing that really puts the lie to what Warren is doing is that her campaign leaked it and this happened a year ago. If Bernie really said this, then she should have come out with it months ago. It's just a politically desperate move because she's behind in the polls. Plus Bernie has more credibility than Warren especially since he's had a consistent message for 3 decades that women could win the presidency. And he backed Warren running in 2015, then he ran when she decided not to.

 

I'm not so much looking for an explanation why this was a scummy move on Warren's part. I already agree with that.

 

But even if she was intentionally trying to use this as a cudgel against Bernie, I still get why she's upset if he's disputing the facts of the matter in a way that makes her into a liar, particularly if it negates her attempt to get one over on him.

 

The problem for Warren there (and probably why she was so defensive) is she has stuff on her resume that already makes her seem dishonest.

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10 hours ago, RedDenver said:

The thing that really puts the lie to what Warren is doing is that her campaign leaked it and this happened a year ago. If Bernie really said this, then she should have come out with it months ago. It's just a politically desperate move because she's behind in the polls. Plus Bernie has more credibility than Warren especially since he's had a consistent message for 3 decades that women could win the presidency. And he backed Warren running in 2015, then he ran when she decided not to.

What is so stupid about this is that she is a liar, we are all liars.  Every single one of us has lied.  

We all agree on that, right?  We have all told a lie in our life and we are all liars.

 

She should have went up to him, shook his hand and said something like "I guess we are about to see if a woman can be President, because I just beat the pants off of you" 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, teachercd said:

What is so stupid about this is that she is a liar, we are all liars.  Every single one of us has lied.  

We all agree on that, right?  We have all told a lie in our life and we are all liars.

 

She should have went up to him, shook his hand and said something like "I guess we are about to see if a woman can be President, because I just beat the pants off of you" 

 

 

 

I did see a poll that had Warren performing best during the debate.

 

I'm also not sure if you ask some of Bernie's most ardent supporters they would agree he has ever lied.

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5 minutes ago, teachercd said:

What is so stupid about this is that she is a liar, we are all liars.  Every single one of us has lied.  

We all agree on that, right?  We have all told a lie in our life and we are all liars.

 

She should have went up to him, shook his hand and said something like "I guess we are about to see if a woman can be President, because I just beat the pants off of you" 

 

 

The optics of her confrontation after the debate were bad.

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Going to just use this one to shut the book on "Trump's black support is surging!" narrative that pops up every now and again.

 

Quote

More than 8 in 10 black Americans say they believe Trump is a racist and that he has made racism a bigger problem in the country. Nine in 10 disapprove of his job performance overall.

 

The pessimism goes well beyond assessments of the president. A 65 percent majority of African Americans say it is a “bad time” to be a black person in America. That view is widely shared by clear majorities of black adults across income, generational and political lines. By contrast, 77 percent of black Americans say it is a “good time” to be a white person, with a wide majority saying white people don’t understand the discrimination faced by black Americans.

 

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