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The 2020 Presidential Election - Primaries

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2 hours ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Yep. Convention speeches have a history of this. The 1964 Goldwater convention made Reagan a (political) star. The 2004 Democratic convention made state senator Obama a star. IIRC Bill Clinton became a star at the 1988 Democratic Convention that nominated the forgettable Michael Dukakis, but at the time Clinton was mocked for going on WAAAAY too long and trying to steal the spotlight. 

 

But it's been awhile since sh!t went down at the convention itself.

 

The Bernies walk out of 2016 was the most interesting thing to happen at a convention since Kerry's balloons. 

2 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Two things:
 

Biden is fine mentally. He's not as sharp as he was when he was younger but that's normal age-related decline. There's no reason to think he's any less capable than either of the other old geezers running right now. He's just a stutterer who gets tripped up on his words some times and uses abrupt word changes mid-sentence as a strategy to overcome his stutter. I firmly believe if he was in serious cognitive decline as some of our folks claim for their own purposes there is no way the party would coalesce behind him. They'd have moved heaven and Earth to get someone else in or lined up behind Bloomberg.

 

The other problem is Biden IS speaking out but it's not getting covered live because A) he's doing it from his home and not a public venue B) Bernie insists on staying in the race for the foreseeable future instead of bowing out letting us move on to the general election and C) the media has to give Trump lying and flinging feces at his enemies blanket wall-to-wall coverage every day.

 

Biden is an old seasoned politician who knows that people rally behind a war time President; and excoriate anyone who opposes him.  Even with the usual focus grouped teleprompter there is literally nothing Biden can say that would help Biden. 

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45 minutes ago, Notre Dame Joe said:

 

The Bernies walk out of 2016 was the most interesting thing to happen at a convention since Kerry's balloons. 

 

Biden is an old seasoned politician who knows that people rally behind a war time President; and excoriate anyone who opposes him.  Even with the usual focus grouped teleprompter there is literally nothing Biden can say that would help Biden. 

 

Is that why Biden is up an average of 7 points on Trump in head-to-head polling?

 

The latter can thump his chest all he wants about being a wartime president. Once things get bad it will be fairly easy to pick apart Trump on his incompetence and failure to lead. Watch any of the ads posted yesterday if you want a preview.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Is that why Biden is up an average of 7 points on Trump in head-to-head polling?

 

The latter can thump his chest all he wants about being a wartime president. Once things get bad it will be fairly easy to pick apart Trump on his incompetence and failure to lead. Watch any of the ads posted yesterday if you want a preview.

 

 

You echo my thoughts frequently on here.  And those ads are straight fire.  I also would assume that Trump would lose the election in the most humiliating fashion ever, and I would love it.

 

But I've realized over the past 4 years, my idea of civility, maturity, religion, compassion, decency, and appropriateness (political beliefs aside) do not match that of a significant amount of American voters.

 

I'm sure @Notre Dame Joe , and many others, are normal people if I were to meet them in line at the gas station counter.  I do it every day, I go to work with them.  And I bite my tongue knowing i have to keep a professional and or cordial relationship.  I have family members, same upbringing!, that are blinded to what "I thought" our common grandparents kindly taught.

 

For most voters, this is about "team".  Rosters be damned.  

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

The latter can thump his chest all he wants about being a wartime president. Once things get bad it will be fairly easy to pick apart Trump on his incompetence and failure to lead. 

 

This doesn't matter. It's always been easy to point at Trump's incompetence, and things haven't been great from the start. People still support him nonetheless. We have to stop thinking this matters in regards to Trump. 

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5 minutes ago, Landlord said:

 

This doesn't matter. It's always been easy to point at Trump's incompetence, and things haven't been great from the start. People still support him nonetheless. We have to stop thinking this matters in regards to Trump. 

 

You're talking about Trump's core supporters like NDJ. I'm not talking about those people.

 

Of course it matters to other people.

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10 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

You're talking about Trump's core supporters like NDJ. I'm not talking about those people.

 

Of course it matters to other people.

 

 

The number of people it matters to who aren't already decided to vote against Trump is very small. 

 

He has a 45% approval rating. It's gone up since the virus outbreak. That 45% is enough for him to win 2020 with good strategy and an advantage of gerrymandering. And those people clearly don't see or don't believe or don't care about the remarkably easy to point out ads/media showing Trump's incompetency.

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14 minutes ago, funhusker said:

You echo my thoughts frequently on here.  And those ads are straight fire.  I also would assume that Trump would lose the election in the most humiliating fashion ever, and I would love it.

 

But I've realized over the past 4 years, my idea of civility, maturity, religion, compassion, decency, and appropriateness (political beliefs aside) do not match that of a significant amount of American voters.

 

I'm sure @Notre Dame Joe , and many others, are normal people if I were to meet them in line at the gas station counter.  I do it every day, I go to work with them.  And I bite my tongue knowing i have to keep a professional and or cordial relationship.  I have family members, same upbringing!, that are blinded to what "I thought" our common grandparents kindly taught.

 

For most voters, this is about "team".  Rosters be damned.  

 

 

 

Well said. I especially agree with the bolded. We're in the same boat there.

 

Luckily I've been in a good position where most of my family and loved ones, if they disagreed with me on Trump initially, have come around. My mom always despised him; my Dad voted for him in 2016 and now thinks he's an embarrassing boob. The brother I'm closest to definitely won't vote for him. My two younger brothers who don't pay attention to politics at all will regrettably probably vote for him. I asked my youngest brother (he's 18) and he said "I dunno, he keeps his promises." (lol)

 

Team definitely applies to the base voters in each party. But I agree with Knapp that there is such as strong anti-Trump sentiment amongst so many voters that if we put forth an argument about those things you listed - compassion, competence, maturity, civility, honesty - and various liberal reforms to the system it can be enough to win.

 

We'll have to hold our butts for sure but I think he'll have as good a shot as anyone else who ran.

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6 minutes ago, Landlord said:

 

 

The number of people it matters to who aren't already decided to vote against Trump is very small. 

 

He has a 45% approval rating. It's gone up since the virus outbreak. That 45% is enough for him to win 2020 with good strategy and an advantage of gerrymandering. And those people clearly don't see or don't believe or don't care about the remarkably easy to point out ads/media showing Trump's incompetency.

 

I'm not paying too much attention to approval polls on this yet because A) there's a rally-around-the-flag effect and B) of course there's lots of room for upward growth when you go out and talk about cutting checks to people and sugarcoat everything and lie nonstop on live TV to the entire nation every day. People are going to soak that stuff up, now, before things have gotten too bad.

 

I'll start looking at them again in a month or two when we're in the throes of this and it's harder to bulls#!t your way out of every thing you've done wrong. When reality is smacking people upside the head and Trump is still running his one play, I'll be curious what they say then.

 

What do you think would be a more effective message to win undecided voters?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Notre Dame Joe said:

 

 

Biden is an old seasoned politician who knows that people rally behind a war time President; and excoriate anyone who opposes him.  Even with the usual focus grouped teleprompter there is literally nothing Biden can say that would help Biden. 

 

When a reporter asks the President if he has anything to say to Americans who are scared right now, and the President says "you're a terrible reporter" a seasoned politician and general election opponent simply has to issue a statement to comfort and rally the American people. Like a real wartime President would. Any of us could have written Biden's statement in 10 minutes. It wouldn't have the word Trump in it at all.

 

This should be the easy stuff for Joe. 

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I can't see anyway he gets reelected.

 

Vegas has him at -140, so clearly they think he is the favorite.

 

 

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5 hours ago, knapplc said:

I think a LOT of people feel the same way you and I feel.  I think @RedDenver and @Frott Scost and @BigRedBuster all feel this way, and I think we all have dissimilar politics.  But I'd happily live under four years of any of their politics than the guy we have now.

Change "happily" to "begrudgingly" and I agree.

 

But I continue to think Biden in 2020 is just like Kerry in 2004 - going to lose to an unpopular Repub incumbent.

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5 hours ago, RedDenver said:

 

Change "happily" to "begrudgingly" and I agree.

 

But I continue to think Biden in 2020 is just like Kerry in 2004 - going to lose to an unpopular Repub incumbent.

 

It would be the loss of the century.  This would dwarf 2004 because Bush was normal politician who didn't go out of his way to be unpopular.  

But I think the Ds could pull it off. 

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7 hours ago, Landlord said:

 

 

The number of people it matters to who aren't already decided to vote against Trump is very small. 

 

He has a 45% approval rating. It's gone up since the virus outbreak. That 45% is enough for him to win 2020 with good strategy and an advantage of gerrymandering. And those people clearly don't see or don't believe or don't care about the remarkably easy to point out ads/media showing Trump's incompetency.

This is off topic, I apologize, but how does gerrymandering effect a Presidential race?

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