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The Way to Early 2020 Presidential Election

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This op ed predicts the Trump presidency won't last 2019 and will fall quickly.  The writer, a former NY GOP congressman,  has some alarming

predictions - one being that Trump will try to remove all troops from SK. 

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/423132-predictions-trump-goes-unexpected-candidate-emerges-in-2019


 

Quote

 

Donald J. Trump’s presidency will not survive 2019;
 

The downward trajectory of every aspect of his tenure indicates we are headed for a spectacular political crash-and-burn — and fairly soon;
 

His increasingly erratic and angry behavior, his self-imposed isolation, his inability and refusal to listen to smart advisers that he hired, all are leading him to a precipice

 

Quote

 

The Mueller investigation will come to an end in 2019;
 

Mueller will shock everyone with what he has discovered, and the result will be much worse for Trump than anyone has anticipated;
 

Yes, Trump indeed knew about the now-infamous June 9, 2016, Trump Tower meeting — and he lied to the American people repeatedly about it;
 

Trump lied on Air Force One when he concocted a phony statement about “adoptions,”  because he knew the truth about the meeting;
 

The Mueller investigation will unveil evidence of Trump putting himself out to the highest bidder in return for campaign help and financing: Russians, Saudis, Emiratis, Qataris — there will be evidence that millions of foreign dollars illegally flowed into the Trump campaign coffers in 2016;
 

In other words, Trump basically said, “I’m for sale”;
 

We may learn the source of the $66 million of his own money that Trump donated to his campaign in 2016. Was it a foreign entity who gave him the money as, in effect, an illegal pass-through?
 

Now that he has removed Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Trump can do what he tried in 2018: He will remove our troops from South Korea;
 

This is exactly what North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, and China and Russia want us to do;

Trump tried this last spring but Mattis and former chief of staff John Kelly talked him out of it; now, neither man remains to stop him;
 

This will provoke a crisis the likes of which we have never seen;
 

The GOP Senate will go nuts when this happens, as will the Pentagon and Japan;
 

This action may begin the breaking away of the 20 GOP senators it will take to remove Trump if the House impeaches, dooming the Trump presidency;

 

 

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4 hours ago, TGHusker said:

This op ed predicts the Trump presidency won't last 2019 and will fall quickly.  The writer, a former NY GOP congressman,  has some alarming

predictions - one being that Trump will try to remove all troops from SK. 

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/423132-predictions-trump-goes-unexpected-candidate-emerges-in-2019


 

 

 

Despite committing myriad crimes, Al Capone's ultimate undoing was failing to pay back taxes. Despite committing myriad crimes, Donald Trump's ultimate undoing may very well be giving Kim Jong Un a strategic reach-around. Seems pretty fitting.

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FWIW it seems like the first major 2020 domino to fall is Warren.

 

I've heard a lot about her flaws, but from what I've heard of her positions she sure is supporting a lot of good stuff. I'm all about someone that's going to say enough is enough with bowing on bended knee to big business and wealthy donors. I like how she's going out of her way to point out how she actually strongly believes in capitalism, with government playing a vital intervening role, rather than being branded a raging socialist like a lot of people no doubt assume her to be.

 

And I REALLY don't care if some people think she's screechy or too shrill. After watching Trump comport himself like a pre-teen girl over the past two years anyone could be 1000x more presidential than what we've got now. I'm not going to be picky.

 

Probably not my favorite but glad she's getting in.

 

 

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This is an example of the conundrum the Dems and any Repub that challenges Trump are in.

 

It's not always that what he proposes is wrong....but HOW he proposes to do it is what's wrong.

 

 

Another example is border security.  The majority of people on both sides understand we need border security.  However, the devil is in the details.  It's about how you do it and the manner in which you do it that counts.

 

This is going to take more than just sound bites on the evening news to educate the voting public on what the real issues are.

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9 hours ago, Clifford Franklin said:

FWIW it seems like the first major 2020 domino to fall is Warren.

 

I've heard a lot about her flaws, but from what I've heard of her positions she sure is supporting a lot of good stuff. I'm all about someone that's going to say enough is enough with bowing on bended knee to big business and wealthy donors. I like how she's going out of her way to point out how she actually strongly believes in capitalism, with government playing a vital intervening role, rather than being branded a raging socialist like a lot of people no doubt assume her to be.

 

And I REALLY don't care if some people think she's screechy or too shrill. After watching Trump comport himself like a pre-teen girl over the past two years anyone could be 1000x more presidential than what we've got now. I'm not going to be picky.

 

Probably not my favorite but glad she's getting in.

 

 

I agree with everything you said except for the bolded. We absolutely need to be picky. All voters should be educated and picky about who deserves their votes.

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57 minutes ago, StPaulHusker said:

This is very funny and very disturbing at the same time coming from the sitting president

 

this is better

 

president-trum-2020-20-years-for-obstruc

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8 hours ago, StPaulHusker said:

This is very funny and very disturbing at the same time coming from the sitting president

 

Yep, it's funny. But the fact the president is a racist sh#tposter memelord kind of destroys any enjoyment I get out of the humor.

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16 hours ago, Clifford Franklin said:

 

Yep, it's funny. But the fact the president is a racist sh#tposter memelord kind of destroys any enjoyment I get out of the humor.

Even with that - most presidents try to look presidential and stay above the fray.  But he is an insecure, narcissistic person, so he has to attack every perceived threat at the inception and he does so via ridicule, rudeness, lies, crudeness, etc.  His tweet says more about him than it does her.  And what it says, isn't good.

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On 1/3/2019 at 9:27 AM, Ulty said:

 

We absolutely need to be picky. All voters should be educated and picky about who deserves their votes.

:thumbs  Indeed.  Hot on the educated.  Read all sources, not just the ones that we might gravitate toward with our politics.  All of it.

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3 hours ago, Fru said:

Man, I really wish this eye roller would join the discussion. 

Probably Ric behind the scenes fuming.    :angry:

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31 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Probably Ric behind the scenes fuming.    :angry:

 

Lol I think you're right. 

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Seems like Biden is getting close to a decision. Down the thread it says he says currently he's likely to run.

 

Worst kept secret in politics ATM, IMO.

 

 

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Do not want Biden to be president. I'd take him over the current situation, but that's an indictment of the situation.

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3 minutes ago, mrandyk said:

Do not want Biden to be president. I'd take him over the current situation, but that's an indictment of the situation.

 

 

I haven’t heard anything to make me not want him as president, but I don’t claim to be too knowledgeable about what he’d be like. But I don’t really want him as a candidate because I think there are other people with better chances at winning. But in the end I want whoever can beat Trump and is also not stupid or an a$$h@!e.

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Tulsi Gabbard just stated in an interview she's running. I watched a few of her videos and I really like her. She's 37, has been a U.S. rep for 5 years, was the youngest ever state legislator in U.S. history, served in the Iraq war and is still a major in the national guard.

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Interesting ideas in here about electoral college reform to return to the "majority rule" idea the authors of the 12th Amendment had in mind. (Not recommending straight up national popular vote, either.)

 

 

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15 hours ago, Fru said:

 

Great listen if you have the time. 

 

 

I'm far more worried about her ability to win the primary than I am her ability to win the presidential election. Especially if Biden runs. He's going to get all the votes from people who don't know who they should vote for because he's well known.

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8 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

I'm far more worried about her ability to win the primary than I am her ability to win the presidential election. Especially if Biden runs. He's going to get all the votes from people who don't know who they should vote for because he's well known.

I agree Gabbard will have a name recognition problem like Bernie did in the early primaries last time, but I also think Biden will be like Jeb Bush in the last Republican primary - big name going in but quickly fades.

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1 hour ago, RedDenver said:

I agree Gabbard will have a name recognition problem like Bernie did in the early primaries last time, but I also think Biden will be like Jeb Bush in the last Republican primary - big name going in but quickly fades.

 

I agree...especially after all the "creepy Uncle Joe" videos get more air time...

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On 1/4/2019 at 8:35 PM, Clifford Franklin said:

MACA 2020

 

(Make America Competent Again)

 

 

How do you spell Idiots:  T.R.U.M.P

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Will 2020 be the year of the "Woman".  Starting to look that way with all of the female presidential announcements or near announcements. 

The Repubs will have a choice - stick wt a dehumanizing narcissist or move on to Nikki or some other viable female.  If I was Pence I'd be concerned wt 

my seat at the table.  Trump will do whatever he can to win and if that means getting a female on the ticket, he may do just that to humanize his image.

 

 

https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-election-women-democrats-7c205ae2-341e-4445-b1da-c3b83eff75a6.html

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10 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

I'm far more worried about her ability to win the primary than I am her ability to win the presidential election. Especially if Biden runs. He's going to get all the votes from people who don't know who they should vote for because he's well known.

She's a smart lady - good interview.

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I like Gabbard and Warren.

i just think Gabbard may be too far left,  and Warren may be too much establishment, to get the votes.

I saw Gillibrand  on Colbert last night i think shes an intriguing choice

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9 hours ago, Big Red 40 said:

I like Gabbard and Warren.

i just think Gabbard may be too far left,  and Warren may be too much establishment, to get the votes.

I saw Gillibrand  on Colbert last night i think shes an intriguing choice

I still think Bernie will win if he runs. He's got the name recognition now.

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12 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

I still think Bernie will win if he runs. He's got the name recognition now.

 

Name recognition at this stage of the election doesn't mean squat as far as how it's all going to end up.  In 2016, Bernie was a relative nobody at this point and he would have won the nomination if the Dems wouldn't have already promised the nomination to Clinton and would have actually ran an honest primary.

 

On the other side, nobody was taking Trump seriously at this point.  He was the goofy reality TV star that wasn't taken serious.  There were probably 10 other candidates on the R side with more name recognition in politics.  How did that turn out?

 

I don't have the disdain for Bernie like most conservatives do.  However, I honestly can not see him getting the nomination with who else I see getting into the race.  In fact, It's quite possible that the only reason why Bernie was so close in 2016 is the same reason why Trump ended up winning the general election.  He was running against the most pathetic candidate the Dems could have hitched their wagon to.

 

 

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1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Name recognition at this stage of the election doesn't mean squat as far as how it's all going to end up.  In 2016, Bernie was a relative nobody at this point and he would have won the nomination if the Dems wouldn't have already promised the nomination to Clinton and would have actually ran an honest primary.

 

On the other side, nobody was taking Trump seriously at this point.  He was the goofy reality TV star that wasn't taken serious.  There were probably 10 other candidates on the R side with more name recognition in politics.  How did that turn out?

 

I don't have the disdain for Bernie like most conservatives do.  However, I honestly can not see him getting the nomination with who else I see getting into the race.  In fact, It's quite possible that the only reason why Bernie was so close in 2016 is the same reason why Trump ended up winning the general election.  He was running against the most pathetic candidate the Dems could have hitched their wagon to.

You could be right, but Bernie is the most popular politician in America right now for a reason. And the establishment media attacks against him won't be as effective this time IMO since he's not a newcomer.

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I too caught Gillibrand on Colbert and while her opening line came off as somewhat rehearsed, I thought displayed good passion and energy which would contrast well with Trump's lazy old man persona.

 

Gabbard seems alright, but she came from an ultra-conservative family (her dad proudly championed a fiercely anti-LGBT state bill in Hawaii) and I'm pretty uncomfortable with her coziness with Assad in Syria. She flew out there on his dime and then came back and offered up pro-Assad viewpoints. We'll have to see.

 

Both of them originally held much more conservative views (or represented much more conservative districts) before becoming progressives. Not that that is necessarily a bad thing, just something to keep in mind.

 

Bernie also benefited from being the only other option in a two-person race with Clinton. Not sure how he'll do in a packed field of candidates.

 

I'd take Klobuchar in a second (folksy Midwestern woman with broad political appeal as a centrist seems like a winner), but not sure she wants to run. Maybe VP?

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2 hours ago, RedDenver said:

You could be right, but Bernie is the most popular politician in America right now for a reason. And the establishment media attacks against him won't be as effective this time IMO since he's not a newcomer.

I think the GOP would do the same thing to Bernie, that they did to Hillary. They picked a few things to smear her and repeated them feverishly until they became "True". Centrist voters ,republican lite, swing  etc voters bought the Benghazi, Emails, Crooked Hillary hype and recoiled from her. I think they would brand Bernie as a crazy old socialist who wants to give everyone free stuff , and those same voters would do the same thing. Without appealing to swing voters,  i'm not sure any candidate can, win the electoral college and  beat Trump   

53 minutes ago, Clifford Franklin said:

I too caught Gillibrand on Colbert and while her opening line came off as somewhat rehearsed, I thought displayed good passion and energy which would contrast well with Trump's lazy old man persona.

 

Gabbard seems alright, but she came from an ultra-conservative family (her dad proudly championed a fiercely anti-LGBT state bill in Hawaii) and I'm pretty uncomfortable with her coziness with Assad in Syria. She flew out there on his dime and then came back and offered up pro-Assad viewpoints. We'll have to see.

 

Both of them originally held much more conservative views (or represented much more conservative districts) before becoming progressives. Not that that is necessarily a bad thing, just something to keep in mind.

 

Bernie also benefited from being the only other option in a two-person race with Clinton. Not sure how he'll do in a packed field of candidates.

 

I'd take Klobuchar in a second (folksy Midwestern woman with broad political appeal as a centrist seems like a winner), but not sure she wants to run. Maybe VP?

Great info thanks .

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1 hour ago, Big Red 40 said:

I think the GOP would do the same thing to Bernie, that they did to Hillary. They picked a few things to smear her and repeated them feverishly until they became "True". Centrist voters ,republican lite, swing  etc voters bought the Benghazi, Emails, Crooked Hillary hype and recoiled from her. I think they would brand Bernie as a crazy old socialist who wants to give everyone free stuff , and those same voters would do the same thing. Without appealing to swing voters,  i'm not sure any candidate can, win the electoral college and  beat Trump

I think the standard political talking point of appealing to swing voters implies a centrist or moderate stance that may not actually match how the swing voters are made up. Hillary discovered her center/moderate stance didn't appeal but that could also be because she's just not a good politician. Also, getting out the vote (typically the base of your party) has always been a winning strategy for Democrats, so the best candidate is going to be one that energizes the voters IMO, and we've seen Bernie is good at that.

 

The GOP is going to smear any candidate, so that's a terrible reason for picking or not picking a nominee. One advantage Bernie has is that he's leaned into the "socialist" label instead of running from it like Dems have done in the past, so it's not nearly as effective. The GOP called Obama a socialist and will do the same to any Dem candidate, which is losing it's effectiveness because they're basically the-boy-who-cried-wolf at this point. I think what you'll see instead is the Dem establishment smear Bernie as a sexist, but it's really hard for the GOP to use that as an attack.

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11 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Hillary discovered her center/moderate stance didn't appeal but that could also be because she's just not a good politician.

 

Let's be clear about something.  Hillary has been an extremely good politician.  I don't want her as President.  But, she's a very good politician.  That's how she and Billy have been able to stay in politics for so long and reach the levels they have.

 

The issue with her is that she is a worn out politician.  The public is sick and tired of her and it's easy to attack her with the mass amounts of baggage she carries along.

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12 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

The GOP is going to smear any candidate, so that's a terrible reason for picking or not picking a nominee. One advantage Bernie has is that he's leaned into the "socialist" label instead of running from it like Dems have done in the past, so it's not nearly as effective. The GOP called Obama a socialist and will do the same to any Dem candidate, which is losing it's effectiveness because they're basically the-boy-who-cried-wolf at this point. I think what you'll see instead is the Dem establishment smear Bernie as a sexist, but it's really hard for the GOP to use that as an attack. 

 

Definitely. They're going to run whomever the Dems nominate through the right-wing smear machine. The best practice is probably just for the Dems to ignore whatever attacks they use until they have a nominee selected who can then pick and choose which attacks to counter and when to go on the offensive.

 

There's absolutely no way the Republican Party can credibly make accusations of sexism at this point. They're hemorrhaging women for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Clifford Franklin said:

 

Definitely. They're going to run whomever the Dems nominate through the right-wing smear machine. The best practice is probably just for the Dems to ignore whatever attacks they use until they have a nominee selected who can then pick and choose which attacks to counter and when to go on the offensive.

 

There's absolutely no way the Republican Party can credibly make accusations of sexism at this point. They're hemorrhaging women for a reason.

 

Yep, it's not like they have Ted Kennedy and Bill Clinton still hanging around.

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9 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Let's be clear about something.  Hillary has been an extremely good politician.  I don't want her as President.  But, she's a very good politician.  That's how she and Billy have been able to stay in politics for so long and reach the levels they have.

 

The issue with her is that she is a worn out politician.  The public is sick and tired of her and it's easy to attack her with the mass amounts of baggage she carries along.

You could be right, but I think Bill Clinton was a good politician (not a good person and I disagree with his policies but good at getting votes) and Hillary not so much. A big part of her problem is that she's just not likable in the way Obama and Bill Clinton are/were. She may have even been good at governing, so maybe I really mean she isn't a good campaigner.

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13 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

I think the standard political talking point of appealing to swing voters implies a centrist or moderate stance that may not actually match how the swing voters are made up. Hillary discovered her center/moderate stance didn't appeal but that could also be because she's just not a good politician. Also, getting out the vote (typically the base of your party) has always been a winning strategy for Democrats, so the best candidate is going to be one that energizes the voters IMO, and we've seen Bernie is good at that.

 

The GOP is going to smear any candidate, so that's a terrible reason for picking or not picking a nominee. One advantage Bernie has is that he's leaned into the "socialist" label instead of running from it like Dems have done in the past, so it's not nearly as effective. The GOP called Obama a socialist and will do the same to any Dem candidate, which is losing it's effectiveness because they're basically the-boy-who-cried-wolf at this point. I think what you'll see instead is the Dem establishment smear Bernie as a sexist, but it's really hard for the GOP to use that as an attack.

People had all kinds of terrible reasons for voting for Trump but they did it anyway. From what i've seen average Joe voter is very uninformed on policies, and facts about who a candidate really is, and very easily manipulated into believing what they are told. They were told repeatedly that Hillary was a liar and without any research into whether that was true or not they believed is wholeheartedly. They also been told socialism is bad and reacted the same way. 

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1 minute ago, Big Red 40 said:

People had all kinds of terrible reasons for voting for Trump but they did it anyway. From what i've seen average Joe voter is very uninformed on policies, and facts about who a candidate really is, and very easily manipulated into believing what they are told. They were told repeatedly that Hillary was a liar and without any research into whether that was true or not they believed is wholeheartedly. They also been told socialism is bad and reacted the same way. 

Remember that it's not effective unless it convinces someone who might have voted for Bernie, so throwing meat to their base might help Fox News ratings but won't matter for the election. The Hillary attacks partly worked because she's so evasive and isn't transparent at all. She also did monumentally stupid stuff like hosting her own email server and then having a changing story about it and giving speeches to Wall Street and refusing to release the transcript of those speeches. As for Bernie, it remains to be seen if the socialism attack will work or not - I think it's a worn out attack with minimal impact on voting.

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1 minute ago, schriznoeder said:

 

I'm kind of digging her (alleged) campaign material.

 

   

It's not hers.  She already said it isn't.  no mountains in Minnesota

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7 minutes ago, StPaulHusker said:

It's not hers.  She already said it isn't.  no mountains in Minnesota

 

I totally missed her announcement. And bummer - I think it's really cool.

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Just now, schriznoeder said:

 

I totally missed her announcement. And bummer - I think it's really cool.

That's the thing.  She hasn't announced.  But she said in a roundabout way that although the design is nice, it wouldn't be what she would do if she were running

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1 minute ago, StPaulHusker said:

That's the thing.  She hasn't announced.  But she said in a roundabout way that although the design is nice, it wouldn't be what she would do if she were running

 

Yep, I just found her tweet now...

 

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