** 2017 Husker Previews: SBNation - How patient are Nebraska fans? **

[Saunders]

Can Nebraska football fans have patience? 2017 might require lots of it

Unless a lot of new pieces click during a lighter September, this landing could be rough.

 

Nebraska is one of the most fascinating programs to me this year. I have no idea what to expect from Mike Riley’s Cornhuskers. With turnover in virtually every unit — new quarterback, new starting running back, new Nos. 2-4 receivers, new starting center, top two tacklers gone on the defensive line and at linebacker, new starting safety/centerfielder — this program becomes Riley’s two years after he took over for Bo Pelini. The two-deep will be filled by either Riley recruits or Pelini recruits who have spent a majority of their careers under Riley.

 

Through two years, Riley has proven almost nothing. His first NU team was a dreadfully unlucky 6-7, losing six one-possession games with some of the worst turnovers luck in the country (minus-4.8 points per game). His second team was a wonderfully lucky 9-4, winning three one-possession games with some of the better turnovers luck in the country (plus-3.8 points per game).

 

You could make a case that the 2016 team was worse than 2015’s. S&P+ did, ranking the Huskers 46th last year, 10 spots lower than their previous iteration. The defense improved, but an experienced offense got worse in categories not based on luck. It was a successful year, in that NU got back to the nine-win range it’d grown tired of (among other things) with Pelini. But the team was limited, as evidenced by any game against a good team.

 

Projected 2017 record and S&P+ ranking: 6-6 (42nd)
Biggest strength: NU should have one of the stronger secondaries in the conference, a ball-hawking group that will pounce on mistakes the way new coordinator Bob Diaco likes.

Biggest question mark: The offense regressed significantly, then lost about two-thirds of its starters.

Biggest 2017 game: The Wisconsin game (Oct. 7) is enormous; it will define NU’s role in the Big Ten West race and the tone of the schedule’s challenging second act.

Summary: This feels like a transition year for Riley as the Huskers break in new offensive pieces and a new defensive coordinator. But how patient will NU fans and administrators be if “transition” means “second six-win season in three years?”

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/6/28/15865010/nebraska-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

As always, an excellent and in-depth preview.

[Mavric]

Another 6-6 pick? Ouch.

 

And S&P+ numbers about where they've been the last couple years.

[zoogs]

I like this.

 

Is the schedule fairly brutal this year? Wisky, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Oregon, Minnesota, Northwestern aren't gimmies, but is losing 6 out of those 7 a baseline expectation?

 

Or is there a team in Rutgers/Illinois/Purdue that I'm discounting?

 

I can see a 5 loss season for sure, but maybe I'm just high on Tanner Lee and a better defensive staff.

 

In any case, it's year 3 and a clear reset on both sides of the field. I've high expectations for what I want to see out of that but plenty of patience for what the record looks like.

[teachercd]

I like this.

 

Is the schedule fairly brutal this year? Wisky, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Oregon, Minnesota, Northwestern aren't gimmies, but is losing 6 out of those 7 a baseline expectation?

 

Or is there a team in Rutgers/Illinois/Purdue that I'm discounting?

 

I can see a 5 loss season for sure, but maybe I'm just high on Tanner Lee and a better defensive staff.

 

In any case, it's year 3 and a clear reset on both sides of the field. I've high expectations for what I want to see out of that but plenty of patience for what the record looks like.

If Riley was in year 3 of coaching...I would be more patient.

 

With that said he has done a wonderful job recruiting.

[fwhuskerfan]

The key is that this really is a transition year and while some may look optimistically on what will happen with more appropriate pieces in place on offense, nothing is proven and the numbers aren't forgiving. The article summarizes it very well in the following:

 

 

It’s easy to see why projections would be skeptical, but it’s also easy to see potential. The Huskers will likely start either 4-1 or 5-0 before welcoming Wisconsin — a team they nearly beat last year — to town. Momentum could drive a great year, or it could set up another “great start, mediocre finish” story like last year’s (and 2014’s, 2012’s, 2011’s, etc.).

 

With almost no projected senior starters on offense and few outside of the secondary on defense, this could be when the seeds of success are sown. Or it could be the year that gets Riley on the top of Hot Seat lists heading into 2018. I have no idea.

[Saunders]

His (Armstrong's) limitations were obvious, though. In 11 games against ranked opponents, he went 1-10 with a 48 percent completion rate and a 100.6 passer rating. Dreck. He was good enough to beat mediocre teams but almost never good enough to win a game Nebraska fans would remember.

 

 

Yeesh...

[JJ Husker]

^{Now that was an excellent preview.}

^{I don't necessarily agree with the W-L projection but you can't fault the logic either. I would really like to see some of these come out that give us the benefit of the doubt, but I suppose we have to earn that on the field first.}

^{It doesn't seem to me to be such a stretch though to think that losing so many of these "experienced" players is necessarily a bad thing. I mean aren't those the same guys that won only 6 in 2015 and tanked down the stretch last year? Isn't that the QB who was ill suited to the type of offense MR wants to run? We all watched the games and almost everyone is in agreement that Banker had to go and most, if forced to bet on it, would say Diaco has to do a better job. Maybe I'm just a fan who desires to be optimistic but I see most of these unknowns falling in our favor and that wouldn't seem to indicate a season with only 6 wins against this schedule. I see one game we are going to lose, 2 that are toss ups and maybe one other that might sneak up and bite us. To me, that equates to 4 losses (8-4) being the worst case scenario. Sprinkle a little sunshine on that and you can get to 9-3 or 10-2 pretty easily. Only 6 wins with this schedule and I'm calling the bullpen.}

[teachercd]

^{Now that was an excellent preview.}

^{I don't necessarily agree with the W-L projection but you can't fault the logic either. I would really like to see some of these come out that give us the benefit of the doubt, but I suppose we have to earn that on the field first.}

^{It doesn't seem to me to be such a stretch though to think that losing so many of these "experienced" players is necessarily a bad thing. I mean aren't those the same guys that won only 6 in 2015 and tanked down the stretch last year? Isn't that the QB who was ill suited to the type of offense MR wants to run? We all watched the games and almost everyone is in agreement that Banker had to go and most, if forced to bet on it, would say Diaco has to do a better job. Maybe I'm just a fan who desires to be optimistic but I see most of these unknowns falling in our favor and that wouldn't seem to indicate a season with only 6 wins against this schedule. I see one game we are going to lose, 2 that are toss ups and maybe one other that might sneak up and bite us. To me, that equates to 4 losses (8-4) being the worst case scenario. Sprinkle a little sunshine on that and you can get to 9-3 or 10-2 pretty easily. Only 6 wins with this schedule and I'm calling the bullpen.}

This works for me!

 

6 wins = canning

 

10 wins = statue (well, a small one)

[RedDenver]

One thing that gets skimmed over is that TA was hurt or not playing in 3 of the 4 losses - only the OT loss to Wisky was Tommy healthy. Granted, we weren't beating tOSU either way, but that seems like a pretty big reason why our offense imploded down the stretch last season.

[teachercd]

One thing that gets skimmed over is that TA was hurt or not playing in 3 of the 4 losses - only the OT loss to Wisky was Tommy healthy. Granted, we weren't beating tOSU either way, but that seems like a pretty big reason why our offense imploded down the stretch last season.

That is a good point.

[ColoradoHusk]

It's really sad to see only a 50% win probability against Minnesota and Northwestern. NU needs to get to the point where those are nearly automatic wins.

[jaws]

One thing that gets skimmed over is that TA was hurt or not playing in 3 of the 4 losses - only the OT loss to Wisky was Tommy healthy. Granted, we weren't beating tOSU either way, but that seems like a pretty big reason why our offense imploded down the stretch last season.

 

I still can't believe that TA was Nebraska's best option at QB last year and the lack of development of a solid #2 was glaring once TA was hurt. And yes, I understand they didn't want to pull any redshirts. Hopefully they have a more developed QB room this season.

[ColoradoHusk]

 

One thing that gets skimmed over is that TA was hurt or not playing in 3 of the 4 losses - only the OT loss to Wisky was Tommy healthy. Granted, we weren't beating tOSU either way, but that seems like a pretty big reason why our offense imploded down the stretch last season.

 

I still can't believe that TA was Nebraska's best option at QB last year and the lack of development of a solid #2 was glaring once TA was hurt. And yes, I understand they didn't want to pull any redshirts. Hopefully they have a more developed QB room this season.

 

When Riley brought in Tanner Lee, there was some thought that he might be immediately eligible in 2016. That was a long shot, but Lee was granted an extra year of eligibility for 2018. Where Riley missed the boat was not recruiting a QB in the 2015 class. I know he had just been hired, but he should have at least brought in a body who was better suited for his style of offense. Maybe he was doing the "smart" thing by saying he didn't have his QB for a full 2 years, so you can't hold those first 2 years against him (which many NU fans are giving him).

[RedDenver]

 

One thing that gets skimmed over is that TA was hurt or not playing in 3 of the 4 losses - only the OT loss to Wisky was Tommy healthy. Granted, we weren't beating tOSU either way, but that seems like a pretty big reason why our offense imploded down the stretch last season.

 

I still can't believe that TA was Nebraska's best option at QB last year and the lack of development of a solid #2 was glaring once TA was hurt. And yes, I understand they didn't want to pull any redshirts. Hopefully they have a more developed QB room this season.

 

The Huskers haven't had a good/talented backup at QB in a decade (arguably). TA came in for Martinez in 2013, so you could count that year, but before that it was Joe Ganz replacing Sam Keller in 2007.

 

I think the lack of a quality backup QB has been hamstringing the Huskers and just having POB and Gebbia on the bench this season will make a big difference.

[teachercd]

 

 

One thing that gets skimmed over is that TA was hurt or not playing in 3 of the 4 losses - only the OT loss to Wisky was Tommy healthy. Granted, we weren't beating tOSU either way, but that seems like a pretty big reason why our offense imploded down the stretch last season.

 

I still can't believe that TA was Nebraska's best option at QB last year and the lack of development of a solid #2 was glaring once TA was hurt. And yes, I understand they didn't want to pull any redshirts. Hopefully they have a more developed QB room this season.

 

When Riley brought in Tanner Lee, there was some thought that he might be immediately eligible in 2016. That was a long shot, but Lee was granted an extra year of eligibility for 2018. Where Riley missed the boat was not recruiting a QB in the 2015 class. I know he had just been hired, but he should have at least brought in a body who was better suited for his style of offense. Maybe he was doing the "smart" thing by saying he didn't have his QB for a full 2 years, so you can't hold those first 2 years against him (which many NU fans are giving him).

 

Plus one million