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BigRedBuster

2018 mid-term

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Yep - if they have well thought out positions and contrast to the repubs who said for the last 8 years they have had well thought out positions but then failed to delivered as planned. It is obvious that they had campaign rhetoric but not a plan/policy ready to go from day one. I think they never thought they'd be in the position to have the Congress and the WH at the same time and therefore had to be serious about their proposals

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It's a tough map for D's to get the Senate in 2018. They need to flip 3 states and keep all of their current seats.

 

Nevada (Heller) and Arizona (Flake) are probably toss ups right now. After that it gets dicey as there are a bunch of very red states: Wyoming, Nebraska, Utah, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Texas.

 

 

 

2018_Senate_Map.png

 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

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you better follow the trump agenda or you will be fired!!! not only are you not loyal...but you are also a traitor!!!

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you better follow the trump agenda or you will be fired!!! not only are you not loyal...but you are also a traitor!!!

 

At this point, the only thing I know about the Trump agenda is that you are supposed to do anything you can to make him feel important.

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I hope they run sheriff Joe . I think his endorsements of Trump (Not the people of Arizona) coupled with the fact hes a very unlikable guy, will make him easy to beat by any decent democratic candidate.

Edited by Big Red 40

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The Dems have a VERY decent candidate for that seat - Kyrsten Sinema. She's very moderate, which seems to play well in Arizona, & very interestingly, she's the first openly bisexual member of Congress.

 

If they manage to pinch Martha McSally out of the primary in favor of Kelli Ward or Sheriff Joe, I'd have to think that seat is a lean D for November.

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To add to what Moiraine said...

 

Given that the Trump agenda thus far hasn't made a single important concession to liberal priorities thus far (aside from those who were strongly opposed to the TPP)... I'm OK with bringing it to a screeching halt. This is a stark contrast to how I felt about the nonstop obstructionism that Obama faced all 8 years in office, but the GOP needs to start offering up some more responsible, bipartisan legislation before I would support what the way they're running Congress.

 

The funny thing is I saw a story recently about how Mitch McConnell wants to be more bipartisan in 2018. Like hell. All he cares about is holding onto seats. After 8 years of being a complete partisan hack no the wants to reach across the aisle? 

 

 

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Just read that redistricting occurs in 2022. It's vital for Democrats that they start to win some state elections, IF the gerrymandering stuff goes the wrong way.

 

Also, found this map on wikipedia. These are the contested states for Senate in 2020. If I counted right, the Democrats only have to defend 11 states. The Republicans have to defend 21. Granted, most of these red states are very red (except maybe Maine, Iowa, and Colorado). Whereas the Democrats have Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia and Alabama.

 

1024px-2020_Senate_election_map.png

Edited by Moiraine

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2 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

Just read that redistricting occurs in 2022. It's vital for Democrats that they start to win some state elections, IF the gerrymandering stuff goes the wrong way.

 

Also, found this map on wikipedia. These are the contested states for Senate in 2020. If I counted right, the Democrats only have to defend 11 states. The Republicans have to defend 21. Granted, most of these red states are very red (except maybe Maine). Whereas the Democrats have Michigan, New Hampshire, and Alabama.

 

1024px-2020_Senate_election_map.png

 

Yeah, it's pretty much the inverse of the 2018 Senate map.

 

Whereas turning the Senate blue this year will be very difficult simply due to the number of Dem seats up for grabs compared to Republican ones, 2020 is the exact opposite. If there is a blue wave this year they need to parlay it into 2020 if they really want to push their advantage. The article I posted in the Dems Rebuild thread about how they turned the state leg in Alaska shows how they could compete even in red states if they want to enact a more progressive agenda.

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14 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Don’t know a thing about this guy....but he needs to lose bad.  

 

 

 

 

 

I just looked into him. His wife is from South Korea. So I'm assuming when Trump campaigns for him, he'll say that Saccone will prevent a nuclear war. The thing I found out on Wikipedia is he's not a big fan of the separation of church and state. Both he and his opponent are veterans.

 

This is another case of the Democrats having nothing to lose and a lot to gain. If they lose, they were in a district that voted heavily in favor of Trump anyway. If they win, they signal a change in momentum.

 

Edited by Moiraine
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This is unfortunate.

 

As a side note, I find myself agreeing wholeheartedly with their views on prison reform & some of their views on immigration reform. But a single family & their vast network dumping this level of cash into politics favoring themselves has a definite corrupting effect. And of course, they're propping up some really awful economic policies.

 

 

 

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No, Paul, what we need is to cleanse Congress of sycophantic, craven lackeys like you.

 

But don't take it from me, listen to conservative intellectual Bill Kristol.

 

 

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"Cleans the FBI" means put people who vote Republican in at every position and have them target only Democrats.

 

IMO.

Edited by Moiraine

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39 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

"Cleans the FBI" means put people who vote Republican in at every position and have them target only Democrats.

 

IMO.

 

Yep. It's not really all that different from Trump.

 

Early on, I come to understand "Drain the Swamp" just meant "Beat the Libs."

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Good news: Florida flipped a seat to the Dems in a district that went for Trump in 2016.

 

Bad news: Hillary Clinton is thinking about hitting the campaign trail to support fellow Democrats across our great nation.

 

There will be a lot of awkward moments this year when local Democrats and Republicans have to tell their national machines that they would really, really, prefer Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton keep their distance. 

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1 hour ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

Bad news: Hillary Clinton is thinking about hitting the campaign trail to support fellow Democrats across our great nation.

 

Anyone who wants the 2018 midterms to be a wake up call to the Republicans, should be begging Hilary to go play with her grandkids.  

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Guys, it's pretty simple. Republicans need to be voted out of office at every level. These guys are insane. That's not an all-out indictment on conservatism, nor is it an endorsement of any specific branch of the opposition (though my views are clear). The GOP is not only unfit to govern, they threaten the very foundations of our democracy and our conception of America.

 

They need to lose control of the House. They need to lose control of the Senate. They need to lose control of state houses and state legislatures. They all need to go.

 

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On 2/14/2018 at 12:13 PM, Guy Chamberlin said:

Bad news: Hillary Clinton is thinking about hitting the campaign trail to support fellow Democrats across our great nation.

 

 

My God. Make it go away.

If she actually gave a s#!t about beating Republicans in elections, she would know better than to do this.

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I've been using this site since 2004. It has both the House and Senate maps.

 

Senate map:

 

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

 

4 Democrat seats are considered toss-ups.

2 Republican seats are considered toss-ups.

If the Democrats win all 6 and there are no surprises, the Senate will be 51-49 Democrat. Currently it's 51-49 Republcian.

That said, there are several other states where the Democrat is considered to only have a slight advantage.


House map:

 

https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/

 

3 Democrat seats are considered toss-ups

16 Republican seats are considered toss-ups

 

If the Democrats win all 19 and there are no surprises, the House will be 219-212 Republican. Currently it's 238-193 Republican. There are 4 vacant seats, and I'm not sure what's going on there. The total should be 435.

 

 

The gerrymandering case is supposed to be decided this summer. If they decide it's not their business to do anything about it, I think the states will become even more emboldened and things will get a lot worse, but I don't think it'll affect 2018.

If they decide to do something about it, things should get better, but it may not affect 2018 except maybe with a few of the states that have already made some decisions (assuming they actually stick). E.g. if the Pennsylvania decision sticks, the House numbers may change a little in the Democrats' favor.

 

 

 

Anecdote: I was talking politics with my mom, who is 70, today. She used to vote almost 100% down the Republican party line, up through the late 90's. She kinda started to drift away from that starting in 2000 but still voted for a lot of Republicans. She told me she might never vote for a Republican again because of Trump and what the GOP is doing about him (nothing).

Edited by Moiraine
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Yay!! A hearty high five for your Mom.

 

The map is unfavorable, as we always knew, but the fight will be worth it. Fractures in the Republican voting bloc (as we have seen, on numerous occasions) are that much more significant when the seat advantage they have is small. 

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Lamb (D) up 49.9% to 49.5% with 95% of the vote in.

 

 

I nerded out and calculated my projection when the vote was 45% in:

Lamb: 98,690
Saccone: 92,792

Looks like a lot more voted than they estimated. Up over 200k is the estimate now.

Edited by Moiraine

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I've heard all the reasons why the margin is more important than who actually wins. But I want Lamb to win because it will make Trump angrier.

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11 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

I've heard all the reasons why the margin is more important than who actually wins. But I want Lamb to win because it will make Trump angrier.

Me too. 

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1 hour ago, Moiraine said:

I nerded out and calculated my projection when the vote was 45% in:


Lamb: 98,690
Saccone: 92,792

Looks like a lot more voted than they estimated. Up over 200k is the estimate now.



Not quitting my day job. The individual county % changed a lot after I made this

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