Moiraine Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 I've heard all the reasons why the margin is more important than who actually wins. But I want Lamb to win because it will make Trump angrier. Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted March 14, 2018 Author Share Posted March 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, Moiraine said: I've heard all the reasons why the margin is more important than who actually wins. But I want Lamb to win because it will make Trump angrier. Me too. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Moiraine said: I nerded out and calculated my projection when the vote was 45% in: Lamb: 98,690 Saccone: 92,792 Looks like a lot more voted than they estimated. Up over 200k is the estimate now. Not quitting my day job. The individual county % changed a lot after I made this Link to comment
Moiraine Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 (edited) Saccone needs 63.2% of the remaining absentee ballot votes. Edited March 14, 2018 by Moiraine Link to comment
Danny Bateman Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 You made your own projections? Wow, that is nerdy. 'Grats though. That's probably a pretty substantial undertaking. Looks like Lamb might pull it out! Apparently the WH is spinning it as good because it "wasn't a blow out." I also saw someone on MSNBC speculating perhaps a Lamb win is actually good for Trump because Lamb is a political outsider. FFS. Trump won this district by 20. Generic Republican is going to win or lose by a razor thin margin. +20 D swing. MSNBC seems to be indicating Westmoreland (strong R country) is fully in (2 holdout precincts + absentee). Saccone gained less than 200 votes total. He's now down nearly 600. He'd need to win ~75% of the remaining absentee votes to win. Link to comment
NM11046 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just heard that he got the absentee ballots he needed ... Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted March 14, 2018 Author Share Posted March 14, 2018 melt down mode. 1 Link to comment
Moiraine Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 36 minutes ago, NM11046 said: Just heard that he got the absentee ballots he needed ... Who's "he" ? Link to comment
Danny Bateman Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said: melt down mode. And it's not even accurate. He's a throwback blue dog Democrat. The spin coming from GOPland trying to pretend this isn't a problem is unreal. 1 Link to comment
Danny Bateman Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 What's more, the underlying problem speaks pretty poorly to the GOP's chances come November. For a long time I heard how Clinton and Dems spent too much time running "against Trump" instead of talking about the issues, and that's why they lost. The GOP barely even tried to sell their tax plan (or Trump's tariffs) in this race. They tried initially, but it didn't move the needle for voters in this district at all. Anecdotally, I heard a couple Lamb voters (some of whom voted for Trump) saying the tax plan helped the rich but not them. The tax plan is their one legislative accomplishment and allegedly what the wanted to run on in November. n = 1, but it sure as heck didn't work here. So they turned to Nancy Pelosi, sanctuary cities & said Dems hate Trump, the U.S. & God. They're becoming culture warriors because their policies suck. I'm thinking we're going to see a lot of GOP campaigns based on social conservatism in the fall. Oh how the tables have turned. 2 Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted March 14, 2018 Author Share Posted March 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Clifford Franklin said: The GOP barely even tried to sell their tax plan (or Trump's tariffs) in this race. They tried initially, but it didn't move the needle for voters in this district at all. Anecdotally, I heard a couple Lamb voters (some of whom voted for Trump) saying the tax plan helped the rich but not them. Not only do these people not see the value in the tax bill, they also are directly being hurt by the steal tariffs. Even though this is "steal country", many of the companies in that area use imported steal......which now will be more expensive and harder to get. I was speaking to a guy who owns a local machine shop yesterday. He said that he ordered some steal yesterday that a month ago costed 1.13 per foot. Now it costs 1.98 per foot and that quote is good till the end of the day. Most quotes on steal are only good for two days right now. He said it's a miserable way to do business right now. Just think what the big users are going through and what it's doing to their bottom lines. 2 Link to comment
NM11046 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Moiraine said: Who's "he" ? Lamb. Link to comment
TGHusker Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 41 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: Not only do these people not see the value in the tax bill, they also are directly being hurt by the steal tariffs. Even though this is "steal country", many of the companies in that area use imported steal......which now will be more expensive and harder to get. I was speaking to a guy who owns a local machine shop yesterday. He said that he ordered some steal yesterday that a month ago costed 1.13 per foot. Now it costs 1.98 per foot and that quote is good till the end of the day. Most quotes on steal are only good for two days right now. He said it's a miserable way to do business right now. Just think what the big users are going through and what it's doing to their bottom lines. One of my students works for a company that buys a lot of steel. They are now limiting the steel companies they can buy from. They have the same issue with bids. The tariff will only help a few temporarily but hurt many more immediately and long term. Stupid move. Link to comment
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