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Trump Domestic Policy - Budgets, etc


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My logic could be faulty here but... I’ve said a million times I don’t think tariffs are bad by default but the time to tariff Chinese goods was back in the 1980’s when we still had companies producing goods (the type that are now made in China) and we started outsourcing. We had the infrastructure back then. Everything was in place for things to continue getting made in the U.S. It was far more ethical and probably better for the economy to make them here, to not use child labor and to support more American jobs that pay decent wages.

 

I think it’s far too late for that now. I’m betting no one with the $ believes the tariffs are going to last, so we’re not going to get a bunch of new companies setting up to start making things again just to go out of business once things return back to normal and they have to compete with the cheap, non tariffed goods again.

 

 

And that’s not to mention the fact that Trump doesn’t understand tariffs or trade deficits. It's possible he could luck into doing something good based on ignorance but it's unlikely. I don’t claim understand either well, especially not all of the things that are impacted when adding tariffs or trying to “fix” a trade deficit, but I still understand them 10x better than he does from 15 minutes of reading on it in my lifetime. Which is probably 15 more minutes of reading than he’s done on it. 

 

It would be convenient if the economic consequences of this stuff could be seen immediately. We might not see how s#!tty things are going to get until it’s too late for this dumbs#!t to get voted out over it. 

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3 hours ago, knapplc said:

This guy. Oy.

 

 

He's an idiot.    Now he talks about applying tariffs to another $300b in Chinese goods.   Before long his 'greatest economy in the history of the USA" will be racked with inflation and the Fed will have to raise interest rates - then Trump will accuse the Fed of conspiring with the Dems to turn the electorate against him.   Of course he'd be the cause of all this self inflicted pain.  

 

https://www.newstimes.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Beijing-calls-for-a-people-s-war-against-the-US-13843480.php

Quote

 

If the Trump administration were to impose the new tariffs on $300 billion of additional goods, it would mean that $500 billion worth of Chinese goods coming into the US would be subject to tariffs.

That figure represents nearly all Chinese imports to the US. The US imported $540 billion worth of goods from China in 2018, according to Census Bureau data.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Moiraine said:

My logic could be faulty here but... I’ve said a million times I don’t think tariffs are bad by default but the time to tariff Chinese goods was back in the 1980’s when we still had companies producing goods (the type that are now made in China) and we started outsourcing. We had the infrastructure back then. Everything was in place for things to continue getting made in the U.S. It was far more ethical and probably better for the economy to make them here, to not use child labor and to support more American jobs that pay decent wages.

 

I think it’s far too late for that now. I’m betting no one with the $ believes the tariffs are going to last, so we’re not going to get a bunch of new companies setting up to start making things again just to go out of business once things return back to normal and they have to compete with the cheap, non tariffed goods again.

 

 

And that’s not to mention the fact that Trump doesn’t understand tariffs or trade deficits. It's possible he could luck into doing something good based on ignorance but it's unlikely. I don’t claim understand either well, especially not all of the things that are impacted when adding tariffs or trying to “fix” a trade deficit, but I still understand them 10x better than he does from 15 minutes of reading on it in my lifetime. Which is probably 15 more minutes of reading than he’s done on it. 

 

It would be convenient if the economic consequences of this stuff could be seen immediately. We might not see how s#!tty things are going to get until it’s too late for this dumbs#!t to get voted out over it. 

You are correct that we are well past the time of effective tariffs - speaking of broadly issued tariffs like these.  A very targeted tariff may be workable to protect a developing industry.  But this broad tariff plan of Trump's will only hurt large swaths of the economy. Our economy and China's are too interwoven at this time. We only need to walk down the aisle of any Walmart, Target, (you name it)  store to see made in China everywhere.  It would take time to move our purchasing from China to other nations.   China has  other 'weapons' also that they could use - the divesting of USA treasuries to name one.

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2 hours ago, Moiraine said:

My logic could be faulty here but... I’ve said a million times I don’t think tariffs are bad by default but the time to tariff Chinese goods was back in the 1980’s when we still had companies producing goods (the type that are now made in China) and we started outsourcing. We had the infrastructure back then. Everything was in place for things to continue getting made in the U.S. It was far more ethical and probably better for the economy to make them here, to not use child labor and to support more American jobs that pay decent wages. 

 

I think it’s far too late for that now. I’m betting no one with the $ believes the tariffs are going to last, so we’re not going to get a bunch of new companies setting up to start making things again just to go out of business once things return back to normal and they have to compete with the cheap, non tariffed goods again. 

 

 

And that’s not to mention the fact that Trump doesn’t understand tariffs or trade deficits. It's possible he could luck into doing something good based on ignorance but it's unlikely. I don’t claim understand either well, especially not all of the things that are impacted when adding tariffs or trying to “fix” a trade deficit, but I still understand them 10x better than he does from 15 minutes of reading on it in my lifetime. Which is probably 15 more minutes of reading than he’s done on it.  

 

It would be convenient if the economic consequences of this stuff could be seen immediately. We might not see how s#!tty things are going to get until it’s too late for this dumbs#!t to get voted out over it.  

 

This would certainly fit with Trump's understanding of business, which is still somehow rooted in a 1980s mindset.

 

Farmers certainly are. They're slowly growing more p#ssed about how this entire trade war fiasco is playing out. But the government is readying some good ol' fashioned socialist relief for them, so the question is whether they can be bought off and will remain loyal to Republicans or whether they've had enough.

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2 hours ago, Moiraine said:

My logic could be faulty here but... I’ve said a million times I don’t think tariffs are bad by default but the time to tariff Chinese goods was back in the 1980’s when we still had companies producing goods (the type that are now made in China) and we started outsourcing. We had the infrastructure back then. Everything was in place for things to continue getting made in the U.S. It was far more ethical and probably better for the economy to make them here, to not use child labor and to support more American jobs that pay decent wages.

 

I think it’s far too late for that now. I’m betting no one with the $ believes the tariffs are going to last, so we’re not going to get a bunch of new companies setting up to start making things again just to go out of business once things return back to normal and they have to compete with the cheap, non tariffed goods again.

 

 

And that’s not to mention the fact that Trump doesn’t understand tariffs or trade deficits. It's possible he could luck into doing something good based on ignorance but it's unlikely. I don’t claim understand either well, especially not all of the things that are impacted when adding tariffs or trying to “fix” a trade deficit, but I still understand them 10x better than he does from 15 minutes of reading on it in my lifetime. Which is probably 15 more minutes of reading than he’s done on it. 

 

It would be convenient if the economic consequences of this stuff could be seen immediately. We might not see how s#!tty things are going to get until it’s too late for this dumbs#!t to get voted out over it. 

My biggest problems with the tariffs are three fold.

 

a)  The confrontational bully tactics with them just needs to stop.  That does nothing good.  All it does is makes the other side more emboldened to dig their heals in.

 

b)  Be way more selective and pick your battles.  All of a sudden getting us out of every trade agreement we have had is just plain idiotic.  Pick one, deal with that one, prove you can negotiate a better one and then move on.  Tariffs by themselves are not a bad thing if done correctly.  The village idiot doesn't understand any of it.

 

c)  We are basically at full employment.  It's absolutely crazy trying to find good employees in many parts of the country.  Central Nebraska is ridiculous.  So....the village idiot is wanting to bring millions of more jobs back to the US.  MEANWHILE, we have the baby boomers all retired taking them out of our workforce AND....oh BTW.....he wants to ban people coming to the US who actually want to do these jobs.

 

I read an article about a year ago that explained that he wants the GDP to grow at a 5% + rate.  Well, we need workers to do that....and the only place to get them is through immigration.  

 

The entire combination of thought processes are totally F***ed up.

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2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

 

I just finished reading a great book called "Why the Right Went Wrong" by E.J. Dionne, Jr. Basically traces the conservative movement from it's modern birth under Goldwater to today and why it is where it is now. Excellent read if anyone is interested in a good look at its history.

 

He talks a lot about how the movement is a lot of disparate parts and how they're constantly struggling for the driver's seat. This particular problem is due to the fact the small government, fiscal conservative types haven't been able to displace the GOP's cartoonish fealty to tax cuts since at least before Reagan's administration. Bush tried raising taxes and the cost for apostasy from their tax cut doctrine was clear - he lost.

 

Even the Tea Party, who rode in on a message of small government and lower taxes, has only been able to accomplish the latter. It's the only part of the modern GOP platform they all agree on. Collectively they simply have no interest in reducing the size of government or trimming the debt.

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2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

 

14 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

I just finished reading a great book called "Why the Right Went Wrong" by E.J. Dionne, Jr. Basically traces the conservative movement from it's modern birth under Goldwater to today and why it is where it is now. Excellent read if anyone is interested in a good look at its history.

 

He talks a lot about how the movement is a lot of disparate parts and how they're constantly struggling for the driver's seat. This particular problem is due to the fact the small government, fiscal conservative types haven't been able to displace the GOP's cartoonish fealty to tax cuts since at least before Reagan's administration. Bush tried raising taxes and the cost for apostasy from their tax cut doctrine was clear - he lost.

 

Even the Tea Party, who rode in on a message of small government and lower taxes, has only been able to accomplish the latter. It's the only part of the modern GOP platform they all agree on. Collectively they simply have no interest in reducing the size of government or trimming the debt.

 

It's gotta be Obama's fault, right?

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  • 2 weeks later...

Well, Trump might be lucking out with farmers.  The planting season has gone so horrible that the last 10 trading sessions have gone strong in his favor with driving up the price of corn and beans.  The planting progress report this afternoon is going to be huge and I don't expect it to express too rosy of a picture.

 

If the crop prices are high, it's not going to matter what the reasoning is.  Farmers are going to ignore not having a market to sell into.

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11 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Well, Trump might be lucking out with farmers.  The planting season has gone so horrible that the last 10 trading sessions have gone strong in his favor with driving up the price of corn and beans.  The planting progress report this afternoon is going to be huge and I don't expect it to express too rosy of a picture.

 

If the crop prices are high, it's not going to matter what the reasoning is.  Farmers are going to ignore not having a market to sell into.

Talked to my Dad  a week ago in S Falls - he said they had not begun planting up that way.   So, yes, high prices may bail Trump out in spite of himself. 

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56 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Talked to my Dad  a week ago in S Falls - he said they had not begun planting up that way.   So, yes, high prices may bail Trump out in spite of himself. 

The interesting thing will be that Trump will only see the rising prices and think the farm crisis is over and renegotiating with China and Mexico really isn't that big of a need.  He will now just drop it.  I suspect we will see some tweets in the next couple weeks about how it's good to be a farmer right now because crop prices are back up....bla bla bla.  

 

Meanwhile, about mid summer, we will start having good crop reports and nothing happening on the negotiating front and....boom.  They will drop again.

 

He doesn't have the mental capacity to understand there are multiple forces that work on the market.

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2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

The interesting thing will be that Trump will only see the rising prices and think the farm crisis is over and renegotiating with China and Mexico really isn't that big of a need.  He will now just drop it.  I suspect we will see some tweets in the next couple weeks about how it's good to be a farmer right now because crop prices are back up....bla bla bla.  

 

Meanwhile, about mid summer, we will start having good crop reports and nothing happening on the negotiating front and....boom.  They will drop again.

 

He doesn't have the mental capacity to understand there are multiple forces that work on the market.

agree - nor does he have the attention span to see it through

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