HuskerMav11 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 (edited) At 4-4, we need to win two to become bowl eligible. And let's not sugar coat it. It's going to be tough. With four games left( Northwestern, Penn State, Minnesota, and Iowa), we're not favored to win two. Record Odds:: 8 - 4: 0.2% 7 - 5: 6% 6 - 6: 28% 5 - 7: 43% 4 - 8: 23% Odds of going at least 6 - 6: 34% Note:The numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding, don't be alarmed, the math checks out . EDIT: Numbers are from ESPNs FPI. Some how I forgot to include this in the original post. My bad. The numbers used were as follows for odds of winning: NW: 40% MN: 40% Penn State: 3% Iowa: 35% Edited October 30, 2017 by HuskerMav11 3 Quote Link to comment
BoNeyard Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 The most Mike Riley thing ever would be to beat Penn State. Quote Link to comment
HuskerMav11 Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, BoneyardHusker said: The most Mike Riley thing ever would be to beat Penn State. Nah. Penn State is above his pay grade. Maybe if they were closer to the bottom of the top 25. 1 Quote Link to comment
BoNeyard Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, HuskerMav11 said: Nah. Penn State is above his pay grade. Maybe if they were closer to the bottom of the top 25. Remember the time when we beat Michigan State? We had no business winning that game, seriously, refs blew a call on our WR coming back into bounds for the game winning touchdown. Quote Link to comment
LumberJackSker Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 People make to big of a deal over mike riley upsets. More times than not good teams beat him. 1 Quote Link to comment
zoogs Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Are there 9 conf games now? Is this the first year where that started? I'd be pretty happy to go 6-3 in the B1G. It won't be easy but this team can do it. Quote Link to comment
HuskerMav11 Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, zoogs said: Are there 9 conf games now? Is this the first year where that started? I'd be pretty happy to go 6-3 in the B1G. It won't be easy but this team can do it. 6.5% chance of that happening. Won't be easy is an understatement. Quote Link to comment
zoogs Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 For full disclosure, you should provide the raw numbers you used to make this math. If you gave Nebraska a 100% chance to lose to PSU and a 60% chance to lose each of the other games, then there's a 21.6% chance to go 0-4. That doesn't seem charitable. Even if it were, you're pulling numbers out of the air (that's being charitable), so maybe stay away from assertions like "there is a ___% chance of this event". Quote Link to comment
famoustitles Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, zoogs said: Are there 9 conf games now? Is this the first year where that started? I'd be pretty happy to go 6-3 in the B1G. It won't be easy but this team can do it. Sometimes i don’t think you and me are watching the same team. But thats ok 4 Quote Link to comment
HuskerMav11 Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, zoogs said: For full disclosure, you should provide the raw numbers you used to make this math. If you gave Nebraska a 100% chance to lose to PSU and a 60% chance to lose each of the other games, then there's a 21.6% chance to go 0-4. That doesn't seem charitable. Even if it were, you're pulling numbers out of the air (that's being charitable), so maybe stay away from assertions like "there is a ___% chance of this event". 40% chance of beating NW 40% chance of beating MN 3% chance of beating Penn State 35% chance of beating Iowa. Feel free to check my math. EDIT: Also, they're not out of air. They're from ESPN's FPI. Feel free to argue that their numbers are bulls#!t Edited October 29, 2017 by HuskerMav11 1 Quote Link to comment
zoogs Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Yeah, you didn't need to do any math there to make your "predictions". You could have just said "I'm really down on the Huskers because I think they stink." Quote Link to comment
Old Nebraska Guy Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 For reference... 78 bowl slots 39 teams currently bowl eligible 25 teams with five wins, with generally four more games to play 19 teams with four wins. How is our APR? Quote Link to comment
Jeremy Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, zoogs said: Yeah, you didn't need to do any math there to make your "predictions". You could have just said "I'm really down on the Huskers because I think they stink." There is no 'think' about it. They lost to Northern Illinois at home. They stink. 2 Quote Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 23 minutes ago, zoogs said: Are there 9 conf games now? Is this the first year where that started? I'd be pretty happy to go 6-3 in the B1G. It won't be easy but this team can do it. Big Ten went to 9 game conference schedule last year. 6-3 with 3 most likely lopsided losses to any Big Ten team worth a darn isn’t that great. Quote Link to comment
mitchp Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, HuskerMav11 said: 40% chance of beating NW 40% chance of beating MN 3% chance of beating Penn State 35% chance of beating Iowa. Feel free to check my math. EDIT: Also, they're not out of air. They're from ESPN's FPI. Feel free to argue that their numbers are bulls#!t Can confirm. Using ESPN FPI: NW 40.5% Minn 40.7% PSU 3.1% Iowa 35.1% Odds of each record are: 4-0 0.2% 3-1 6.5% 2-2 28.1% 1-3 43.0% 0-4 22.2% So a 34.8% chance of 2 or more wins. 4 Quote Link to comment
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