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Two games to go bowling


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At 4-4, we need to win two to become bowl eligible. And let's not sugar coat it. It's going to be tough.

 

 With four games left( Northwestern, Penn State, Minnesota, and Iowa), we're not favored to win two. 

 

Record Odds::

8 - 4: 0.2%

7 - 5: 6%

6 - 6: 28%

5 - 7: 43%

4 - 8: 23%

 

Odds of going at least 6 - 6: 34%

 

Note:The numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding, don't be alarmed, the math checks out :)

 

EDIT: Numbers are from ESPNs FPI. Some how I forgot to include this in the original post. My bad.

 

The numbers used were as follows for odds of winning:

NW: 40%

MN: 40%

Penn State: 3%

Iowa: 35%

Edited by HuskerMav11
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For full disclosure, you should provide the raw numbers you used to make this math. If you gave Nebraska a 100% chance to lose to PSU and a 60% chance to lose each of the other games, then there's a 21.6% chance to go 0-4. That doesn't seem charitable. Even if it were, you're pulling numbers out of the air (that's being charitable), so maybe stay away from assertions like "there is a ___% chance of this event".

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8 minutes ago, zoogs said:

For full disclosure, you should provide the raw numbers you used to make this math. If you gave Nebraska a 100% chance to lose to PSU and a 60% chance to lose each of the other games, then there's a 21.6% chance to go 0-4. That doesn't seem charitable. Even if it were, you're pulling numbers out of the air (that's being charitable), so maybe stay away from assertions like "there is a ___% chance of this event".

 

40% chance of beating NW 

40% chance of beating MN

3% chance of  beating Penn State

35% chance of beating Iowa.

 

Feel free to check my math.

 

EDIT: Also, they're not out of air. They're from ESPN's FPI. Feel free to argue that their numbers are bulls#!t

Edited by HuskerMav11
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14 minutes ago, HuskerMav11 said:

 

40% chance of beating NW 

40% chance of beating MN

3% chance of  beating Penn State

35% chance of beating Iowa.

 

Feel free to check my math.

 

EDIT: Also, they're not out of air. They're from ESPN's FPI. Feel free to argue that their numbers are bulls#!t

 

Can confirm.

 

Using ESPN FPI:

NW 40.5%
Minn 40.7%
PSU 3.1%
Iowa 35.1%

 

Odds of each record are:

4-0 0.2%
3-1 6.5%
2-2 28.1%
1-3 43.0%
0-4 22.2%

 

So a 34.8% chance of 2 or more wins.

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