QB Run Game: the Myth of the Frost Offense

Cdog923

Cdog923

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I've noticed quite a bit in discussions on both what the offense next year will look like and in recruiting that it's a certainty that Frost needs a "run-first" QB to make his offense work at a high level. Look at the stats, though, and that seems to be a bit of a fallacy. For comparison's sake, let's look at the rushing attempts and completion percentage of QBs at Oregon and UCF during Frost's tenure at both places, and how that might affect how he wants his QB room to look at Nebraska. 

Frost as WR coach:

2009: Jeremiah Masoli - 12 games/121 attempts (10 att/game) (58% completion)

2010: Darron Thomas - 12 games/93 att (7 att/g) (61.5%)

2011: Darron Thomas - 13 games/56 att (4 att/g) (62.2%)

2012: Marcus Mariota - 13 games/106 att (8 att/g) (68.5%)

Frost as OC: 

2013: Marcus Mariota - 13 games/96 att (7 att/g) (63.5%)

2014: Marcus Mariota - 15 games/135 att (9 att/g) (68.3%)

2015: Vernon Adams - 10 games/83 att (8 att/g) (64.9%)

           Jeff Locke - 5 games/61 att (12 att/g) (61.6%)

Frost as HC: 

2016: McKenzie Milton - 10 games/100 att (10 att/g) (57.7%)

2017: McKenzie Milton - 12 games/93 att (8 att/g) (69.2%)

On average, offenses that Frost has been involved with (or that have inspired his offense, if you will) have ran the QB around 8 times a game (or 2 times per quarter), with a completion percentage hovering in the mid 60s. Compare and contrast that with QBs that we have seen at Nebraska:

Tommy Armstrong - 45 games/423 att (9.4 att/g) (53.3%)

Taylor Martinez - 44 games/585 att (13 att/g) (59.8%)

Joe Ganz - 24 games/115 att (5 att/g) (65.1%) 

                  - 2008: 12 games/92 att (7 att/g) (68%)

Jammal Lord - 39 games/516 att (13 att/g) (48%)

Eric Crouch - 43 games/648 att (15 att/g) (51.5%)

Scott Frost - 24 games/302 att (13 att/g) (53.5%)

Tommie Frazier - 35 games/342 att (10 att/g) (49.5%)

My conclusion is this: I don't believe that Frost's offense absolutely needs a Taylor Martinez to be successful; I think it needs a Joe Ganz. Put someone back there with a completion percentage in the 60s while also being able to run the zone read/designed run an average of one to two times a quarter. I think that both Gebbia and POB can do this, should they be called upon next year.

*2021 EDIT*: since we're 3 years into Frost's offense, we can add more data to see how our thesis is holding up: 

2018: Adrian Martinez - 11 games/140 att (13 att/g) (64.6%)

2019: Adrian Martinez - 10 games/144 att (14 att/g) (59.4%)

2020: Adrian Martinez - 7 games/91 att (13 att/g) (71.5%)

These are by far the largest numbers of QB carries a Frost QB has had, and they coincide with the 3 worst records a Frost team has had......things that make you go "Hmmm". 

 
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Cool post and great research!

I would like to add a few things

1.  Most HS QB's are pretty much the best athletes at the high school (or like in the top 10) so don't look so much at their rushing stats in high school, look at the schools/systems that they are being recruited for.

2.  Running (Especially for QB's) is a mind set.  Think back to a guy like Peyton Manning, when he was in high school he could have ran for 100 yards a game if he wanted, he was just better than everyone but it wasn't really "for him".  

The defense and the DC has to fear the QB run game.  We hear the team "Keep them honest" well to keep them honest that QB has to prove it first.  Just like WR's have to prove they can beat you deep before you stop pressing them...unless you are Coach Diaco in which case you think every WR is really Usain Bolt-Rice

 
Good post.

Decision making, accurate passing and being able to distribute the ball to the right playmakers is still way more important than having a QB that can out run everyone on the field.

The offense's design opens up space for many of the QB runs.  They don't need to be another RB.  I agree, the QB needs to be able to make a defense pay for not respecting what he can do with his legs.  BUT....again...that doesn't take a Tmart or Crouch type of a player.

On a completely different thought looking at these.  I always laugh/roll my eyes when fans say that Solich way over used the QB run and that was what was wrong with his offenses.  Look at the rushing attempts of Frost, Crouch and Lord.  Lord is the same as Frost and Crouch only ran two more times per game.

One of the biggest myths in Husker Nation.  That trend was started before Solich took over as HC and play calling.

 
Great post. I think on some of these we have to dig a little deeper as well. UCF improved this year by the threat of Milton's run game. 

2016: 100 attempts, 1.6 ypc, 3 TD

2017: 93 attempts, 5.3 ypc, 7 TD

Mariota avg 6.6 ypc and 10 rushing TD/season in his 3 years at Oregon. I agree we don't need a burner at QB, but they have to be efficient at running the ball as well. There are many QB's who could not avg over 5 ypc that some think could work in this offense. Ganz and Armstrong never avg. 5 ypc. I think that's the tipping point of success for this offense. 

 
While the offense doesn't "require" a QB that can run a lot of times a game, the offense seems to be more dynamic when the QB run threat is more involved.  It will be interesting to see how Frost uses the current roster of QB's and the incoming recruits the next few years.

 
BIG ERN said:
Great post. I think on some of these we have to dig a little deeper as well. UCF improved this year by the threat of Milton's run game. 

2016: 100 attempts, 1.6 ypc, 3 TD

2017: 93 attempts, 5.3 ypc, 7 TD

Mariota avg 6.6 ypc and 10 rushing TD/season in his 3 years at Oregon. I agree we don't need a burner at QB, but they have to be efficient at running the ball as well. There are many QB's who could not avg over 5 ypc that some think could work in this offense. Ganz and Armstrong never avg. 5 ypc. I think that's the tipping point of success for this offense. 
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That's a good point; one thing to think of is how lost yardage due to sacks can play into yards per carry; Ganz was sacked 21 times in 2008 (I'm efforting to find how much lost yardages that accumulates to), while Milton has been sacked 10 times this year. 

 
Cdog923 said:
That's a good point; one thing to think of is how lost yardage due to sacks can play into yards per carry; Ganz was sacked 21 times in 2008 (I'm efforting to find how much lost yardages that accumulates to), while Milton has been sacked 10 times this year. 
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I'm not even saying that Ganz or Tommy couldn't have done well in this system, but many think we can plug in any QB that has a pulse at running the ball. I disagree 

 
One main point that I think is important is that it's not as if it's as easy as just sitting here talking about "what's better." The "what's better" part is obvious - the kid that's great both running and passing. I'm thinking of the majority of the QBs Art Bryles or Gary Patterson have fielded in that category even.

Is Frost going to recruit that kid? That's probably one of the more interesting questions on my mind this offseason. 

 
BIG ERN said:
Great post. I think on some of these we have to dig a little deeper as well. UCF improved this year by the threat of Milton's run game. 

2016: 100 attempts, 1.6 ypc, 3 TD

2017: 93 attempts, 5.3 ypc, 7 TD

Mariota avg 6.6 ypc and 10 rushing TD/season in his 3 years at Oregon. I agree we don't need a burner at QB, but they have to be efficient at running the ball as well. There are many QB's who could not avg over 5 ypc that some think could work in this offense. Ganz and Armstrong never avg. 5 ypc. I think that's the tipping point of success for this offense. 
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Passing probably had a bigger effect:

2016: 297 attempts, 6.09 ypa, 9 TD

2017: 360 attempts, 10.5 ypa, 35 TD

 
The hard things to know are the intangibles each QB has.  Decision-making skill and speed.  Instincts, field vision, toughness, confidence, intelligence, ability to read the defense, running style, elusiveness, etc, etc.

The ability to evaluate those intangibles in a recruit without the benefit of seeing that player running your offense is what separates the elite talent evaluates from the rest.  I hope Frost & Co. are as good at that as T.O. appeared to be in his prime.

In the end, I'm just glad he will have a number of options on-campus this spring at QB.  The cream should rise to the top.

 
Undone said:
One main point that I think is important is that it's not as if it's as easy as just sitting here talking about "what's better." The "what's better" part is obvious - the kid that's great both running and passing. I'm thinking of the majority of the QBs Art Bryles or Gary Patterson have fielded in that category even.

Is Frost going to recruit that kid? That's probably one of the more interesting questions on my mind this offseason. 
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I think Adrian Martinez is probably a good starting point to find out. 

 
Great Post!  It forced me to think outside of my box.  In my head, I was also imagining that Frost would go after a quarterback with blazing speed, but your post made me re-consider a lot.  A good argument could be made that McKenzie Milton is closer to Joe Ganz than Taylor Martinez. 

 
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