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Will Nebrasketball Make the NCAA Tournament?  

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Here is today's version of some numbers for at-large teams slotted as a 9-seed or lower in Lunardi's updated bracket today.  The comments and projection are my opinions:    

Go home. You're drunk.

Oklahoma still sucks. 

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4 minutes ago, ScottyIce said:

Sad that it appears teams are willing to eat cake in conference tournaments to help others in their conference get in the dance...

ESPN: Hey Bruce, let's chat

Bruce Pearl: Uh, I'm in the middle of a game

ESPN: Yeah, about that.  We need you to lose

Bruce Pearl: What do you mean?

ESPN: Well, we need more SEC teams in the tournament, and you're already in

Bruce Pearl: Well we want to win the SEC tournament

ESPN: You do that and we've got a real nice story ready to print about your illegal recruiting habits

Bruce Pearl: Don't worry - we won't even make it close

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34 minutes ago, HS_Coach_C said:

ESPN: Hey Bruce, let's chat

Bruce Pearl: Uh, I'm in the middle of a game

ESPN: Yeah, about that.  We need you to lose

Bruce Pearl: What do you mean?

ESPN: Well, we need more SEC teams in the tournament, and you're already in

Bruce Pearl: Well we want to win the SEC tournament

ESPN: You do that and we've got a real nice story ready to print about your illegal recruiting habits

Bruce Pearl: Don't worry - we won't even make it close

How dare you accuse/assume Bruce Pearl of potentially committing recruiting violations.

 

Just because he lied while at Tennessee and was fired for it and is now still in the most corrupt conference with a team that has a reputation for pulling stuff doesnt mean that.... Ahhh nevermind. 

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1 hour ago, HS_Coach_C said:

ESPN: Hey Bruce, let's chat

Bruce Pearl: Uh, I'm in the middle of a game

ESPN: Yeah, about that.  We need you to lose

Bruce Pearl: What do you mean?

ESPN: Well, we need more SEC teams in the tournament, and you're already in

Bruce Pearl: Well we want to win the SEC tournament

ESPN: You do that and we've got a real nice story ready to print about your illegal recruiting habits

Bruce Pearl: Don't worry - we won't even make it close

Bruce Pearl cheat?  ESPN slurp the SEC's butt?  Surely not!

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Bubble rundown and where conference tournaments stand:

 

Tournament Championship

EARNED AUTOMATIC BID (13)  -  19 Conference Tournaments Remain To Be Completed

Should Earn At-Large Bid (33)

On the Bubble (24)

 

POWER 6

ACC: Saturday (Virginia, Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, Florida StateLouisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame)

Big 12: Saturday (Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas)

Big East: Saturday (Xavier, Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall, Butler, Providence, Marquette)

Big Ten: MICHIGAN (Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, NebraskaPenn State)

Pac-12: Saturday (Arizona, USC, UCLA, Arizona StateOregon)

SEC: Sunday (Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Alabama, Mississippi State)

 

Other conferences with possible At-Large teams:

America East: Saturday (Vermont)

American: Sunday (Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston)

Atlantic 10: Sunday (Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure)

Conference USA: Saturday (Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky)

Missouri Valley: LOYOLA-CHICAGO

Mountain West: Saturday (Nevada)

Summit: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

Sun Belt: Sunday (Louisiana)

West Coast: GONZAGA (St. Mary's)

WAC: Saturday (New Mexico State)

 

Conferences with only 1 bid no matter what:

Atlantic Sun: LIPSCOMB

Big Sky: Saturday

Big South: RADFORD

Big West: Saturday

Colonial: CHARLESTON

Horizon: WRIGHT STATE

Ivy: Sunday

Metro Atlantic: IONA

MAC: Saturday

MEAC: Saturday

Northeast: LIU BROOKLYN

Ohio Valley: MURRAY STATE

Patriot: BUCKNELL

Southern: UNC GREENSBORO

Southland: Saturday

Southwestern: Saturday

 

Best Case Scenario for Bubble Teams: All Conferences with an At-Large Lock win the tournament

That would mean 32 auto-bids + 24 At-Large Locks = 56 Spots taken in the field

Assuming teams on the bubble win conferences that don't have any locks (MTSU lost C-USA), that leaves 23 Bubble Teams

That would leave 12 At-Large Spots for the 23 Remaining Bubble Teams

 

The Pecking Order for the remaining Bubble Teams is probably something like this:

1. St. Bonaventure

2. Providence

3. St. Mary's

4. Florida State

5. USC

6. NC State

7. Alabama

8. UCLA

9. Middle Tennessee

10. Oklahoma

11. Texas

12. Louisville                                     

13. Baylor                       

14. Arizona State

15. Syracuse

16. Notre Dame

17. Nebraska

18. Marquette

19. Mississippi State

20. Oklahoma State

21. Western Kentucky

22. Oregon

23. Penn State

24. Georgia

25. Utah

26. Washington

27. Boise State

 

Updated after the early Friday games

Removed Georgia from the Bubble Teams.

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17 minutes ago, MLB 51 said:

SEC has 7 locks and 3 bubble teams. Alabama looks like they will get in. When did the SEC become the best basketball conference? :B)

They showed it in non conference unfortunately. I don't agree with it, but my post from yesterday showed the sec and big xii were much better than other conferences.

 

The big ten needs to not suck in non conference next year

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The inherent problem with putting so much weight into the noncon is that teams adjust, mature and evolve based on varying factors. Young teams change, injuries occur, and all sorts of pieces sort in and out.

It's hard to watch some of these SEC teams and believe ALL of them are tourney worthy vs other conferences 3 months later.

Edited by Comish
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Bubble rundown and where conference tournaments stand:

 

Tournament Championship

EARNED AUTOMATIC BID (26)  -  6 Conference Tournaments Remain To Be Completed

Should Earn At-Large Bid (28)

On the Bubble (24)

 

POWER 6

ACC: VIRGINIA (Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, NC State, Virgina Tech, Florida StateLouisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame)

Big 12: KANSAS (West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas)

Big East: VILLANOVA (Xavier, Creighton, Seton Hall, Butler, Providence, Marquette)

Big Ten: MICHIGAN (Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, NebraskaPenn State)

Pac-12: ARIZONA (USC, UCLA, Arizona State)

SEC: Sunday (Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Alabama, Mississippi State)

 

Other conferences with possible At-Large teams:

America East: UMBC (Vermont)

American: Sunday (Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston)

Atlantic 10: Sunday (Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure)

Conference USA: MARSHALL (Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky)

Missouri Valley: LOYOLA-CHICAGO

Mountain West: SAN DIEGO STATE (Nevada)

Summit: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

Sun Belt: Sunday (Louisiana)

West Coast: GONZAGA (St. Mary's)

WAC: NEW MEXICO STATE

 

Conferences with only 1 bid no matter what:

Atlantic Sun: LIPSCOMB

Big Sky: MONTANA

Big South: RADFORD

Big West: Saturday

Colonial: CHARLESTON

Horizon: WRIGHT STATE

Ivy: Sunday

Metro Atlantic: IONA

MAC: BUFFALO

MEAC: NC CENTRAL

Northeast: LIU BROOKLYN

Ohio Valley: MURRAY STATE

Patriot: BUCKNELL

Southern: UNC GREENSBORO

Southland: SF AUSTIN

Southwestern: TEXAS SOUTHERN

 

Best Case Scenario for Bubble Teams: All Conferences with an At-Large Lock win the tournament - didn't happen

That would mean 32 auto-bids + 25 At-Large Locks = 57 Spots taken in the field

That would leave 11 At-Large Spots for the 24 Remaining Bubble Teams

 

The Pecking Order for the remaining Bubble Teams is probably something like this:

1. St. Bonaventure

2. St. Mary's

3. Virginia Tech

4. Florida State

5. Alabama

6. NC State

7. USC

8. UCLA

9. Middle Tennessee

10. Oklahoma

11. Texas                               

12. Louisville

13. Western Kentucky

14. Baylor                       

15. Arizona State

16. Syracuse

17. Notre Dame

18. Nebraska

19. Marquette

20. Vermont

21. Mississippi State

22. Oklahoma State

23. Louisiana

24. Penn State

Oregon

Georgia

Utah

Washington

Boise State

 

Updated after most of the Saturday games.

Nevada and Providence are now locks that reduce the bubble teams that'll get in.

Louisiana, Vermont, Nevada, Western Kentucky all lost in conference tournaments

I removed Vermont and Virgina Tech from the locks after seeing how far their RPI's have dropped

I see very little separation between bubble teams 8-20. It wouldn't surprise me if any of them were in or out.

Edited by HS_Coach_C
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this cut me deep. Big deciders were road record,  SOS,  how’d you do against teams in the tournament...

6-9 Road/Neutral

96 SOS

Michigan 1-1(20 pt win and loss)

Ohio State 0-1 (lost by 5)

Purdue 0-1 (lost by 12~)

Kansas 0-1 (lost by 1)

Michigan State 0-1 (lost by 20~)

Creighton 0-1 (lost by 10~)

 

Matter of time until we know for sure, but he didn’t say anything to make me feel special.

Edited by ScottyIce
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