S&P reached a record high in January

[HuskerNBigD]

11 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

I manage a company that manufactures products that go into (mostly) the residential housing and construction market.  We sell nationally and in some foreign countries.  Our market is really strong from march through mid-July....it then usually is slow until mid August and then picks up going into the fall.  Our industry never came back in August and into the fall.  Now, we all know that housing starts are down somewhat because of interest rates.  However, when that happens, many times we will then see our products selling into the home improvement market.  If people aren't buying new homes, they are fixing up their current ones.  When they aren't doing either.....that concerns me.

 

Florida is a huge market for us.  When the housing market crashed last time, it was the first market that pulled back.  My main customer down there claims about late July his phone completely shut off.  He is hearing the same from other construction pros in Florida.  I'm starting to hear similar type rumblings in other ares of the country.

 

Also, our raw materials are sold heavily into the construction industry, but also into other markets like the auto industry, computer industry, packaging...etc.  We are seeing some major softening in the prices they are selling to us at.  Many times that means their demand is pulling back.  They are acting as though they need people to be buying more.  This tells me it's a wider issue than just the housing market.

 

And...I know you disagree with me and I'm not going to argue the point.  The ag economy stinks.  This ultimately, affects many other industries.  For instance, we have discussed GM switching to making more pickups.  The ag industry is a huge market for them.  Companies like Caterpillar have ag as a major market....etc.  That's a lot of jobs.  All of those cars and equipment are now more expensive because of the stupid tariffs.  Pretty much any retail business in many small towns in America are largely reliant on the ag economy even if they're selling shoes, gas, computers....etc.

 

None of that is going to show up in the stockmarket or in government statistics till months or quarters down the road.  Many people think of the great recession starting in 2008.  We knew it was happening as early as early 2007.

Good stuff, thank you!

[BigRedBuster]

14 minutes ago, HuskerNBigD said:

Good stuff, thank you!

 

One more thing that really concerned me this morning.  I don't have a link at my fingertips.

 

On CNBC, they were saying that a large number of people have taken cash out of their home equity.  Meaning, they refinanced the same home to a higher mortgage balance, paid off the old mortgage and pocketed the cash.  Why???

 

So, people are bringing on higher debt balances and spending the money.  They should be doing just the opposite.  Get OUT of debt.

 

I've also been seeing mortgage games being played like they were in 2006 and earlier.  Zero down mortgages, mortgages for more than the home value....etc.  I have a couple friends who are bank Presidents and they confirm they have seen this too.

[StPaulHusker]

2 hours ago, ZRod said:

It's not really related to that...

 

This has more to do with a shift in demand. People don't want sedans and small cars. They want trucks and SUVs right now. Ford is making the same move, and Chrysler made the move a few years ago. It's unfortunate that they chose not to retool the plants here in the US for new production, but they could announce that sometime down the road if they chose to create new product.

 

Maybe I'm missing something in your post but the 2nd tweet I posted said they are shutting down a Blazer plant in the US and moving it to Mexico.  

[ZRod]

24 minutes ago, StPaulHusker said:

 

Maybe I'm missing something in your post but the 2nd tweet I posted said they are shutting down a Blazer plant in the US and moving it to Mexico.  

Chevy doesn't even build the Blazer right now. That's for future production. These plans were likely made before the tariffs or tax cuts were even mentioned. Plant investment, or moves, are not quick decisions. They have to be a year or 2 (minimum) ahead of any launch.

[BigRedBuster]

37 minutes ago, ZRod said:

Chevy doesn't even build the Blazer right now. That's for future production. These plans were likely made before the tariffs or tax cuts were even mentioned. Plant investment, or moves, are not quick decisions. They have to be a year or 2 (minimum) ahead of any launch.

 

 

True. 

 

These plans are are being made a long time before they are made public. However, if things like the tax cuts make a big difference, these plans can be canceled. 

 

This tells me these plans were in the works and nothing that has happened the last two years has changed their minds. 

 

Nothing is going to either as much as the orange man thinks so. 

[Guy Chamberlin]

I know some elderly folks who are gambling they will die before their reverse mortgage runs out.

 

We are the worst saving nation in the world. 

[LumberJackSker]

6 hours ago, ZRod said:

It's not really related to that...

 

This has more to do with a shift in demand. People don't want sedans and small cars. They want trucks and SUVs right now. Ford is making the same move, and Chrysler made the move a few years ago. It's unfortunate that they chose not to retool the plants here in the US for new production, but they could announce that sometime down the road if they chose to create new product.

True. But the American people did give these auto companies billions of dollars and elected politicians that gave them huge tax cuts it would be nice if those workers got something out of it.

[jsneb83]

3 hours ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

I know some elderly folks who are gambling they will die before their reverse mortgage runs out.

 

We are the worst saving nation in the world. 

We always want that shiny new toy!

[deedsker]

1 hour ago, jsneb83 said:

We always want that shiny new toy!

How is your shiny new toy?

[jsneb83]

44 minutes ago, deedsker said:

How is your shiny new toy?

In the shop  

[ZRod]

10 hours ago, LumberJackSker said:

True. But the American people did give these auto companies billions of dollars and elected politicians that gave them huge tax cuts it would be nice if those workers got something out of it.

They are also cutting thousands of jobs in Canada, but yes I generally feel companies should have an obligation to their employees and their country. If people don't have jobs they can't be consumers and buy your products. Unfortunately large corporations are beholden to their shareholders and no one else. If Ford and Chrysler are continuing, and moving, production to Mexico as well what choice does GM have if it wants to remain the leader in a highly competitive market? There's no incentive to use more expensive labor here except to avoid hollow threats from Trump. These guys and gals stroked Trump's ego his first year, and now their calling his bluff.

[BigRedBuster]

6 hours ago, ZRod said:

Unfortunately large corporations are beholden to their shareholders and no one else.

 

 

This is an over used phrase that isn't true.

 

Many times these moves protect the jobs of the rest of the thousands that work for the company.  If companies don't do these moves from time to time, it puts the company in jeopardy and thus....the rest of the thousands of jobs that people benefit from.

 

Sometimes companies need to make a major move in a different direction to survive.  Unfortunately, sometimes employees get caught in the transition.  It's not always just because of greed form share holders.

[RedDenver]

10 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

This is an over used phrase that isn't true.

Who else are companies beholden to besides shareholders?

[BigRedBuster]

Just now, RedDenver said:

Who else are companies beholden to besides shareholders?

Read the rest of my post.

[commando]

trump using blackmail