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S&P reached a record high in January


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10 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

It's a nice start.  Hopefully we can go on a run like 2009 - 2015.

I think we're going to lose steam as soon as the latter part of this year. We're 10 years into a bull market and I just don't see a ton of growth outside the U.S. - China of course but Europe is a mess right now. However,  I don't think it'll be nearly as bad as '08-'09.

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1 minute ago, HuskerNBigD said:

I think we're going to lose steam as soon as the latter part of this year. We're 10 years into a bull market and I just don't see a ton of growth outside the U.S. - China of course but Europe is a mess right now. However,  I don't think it'll be nearly as bad as '08-'09.

I too have some concerns in the 12-18 month time frame. 

 

Would you say we are still in a bull market considering the last 15 months?  

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1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:

I too have some concerns in the 12-18 month time frame. 

 

Would you say we are still in a bull market considering the last 15 months?  

Growth is going to be the name of the game, but I'm not quite sure how much higher we can go. Wage inflation is what I'd really like to see tick up, but at full employment and the lowest weekly jobless claims in 49 years, I'm not sure what else can be done.

 

As for the bull market term, when looking over the last 10 years, I'd argue that it is still an appropriate term to use. Granted Q4 was quite bumpy, but from a trend standpoint its hard to argue.

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3 minutes ago, HuskerNBigD said:

As for the bull market term, when looking over the last 10 years, I'd argue that it is still an appropriate term to use. Granted Q4 was quite bumpy, but from a trend standpoint its hard to argue.

Possibly.  If you take out the totally unrealistic last half of 2017, I could see somewhat of a bull trend line still.

 

My issue with the term is that if you look at the last 15 months, we basically have been trading between 23,500 and 26,500.  It broke out the bottom at the end of last year, That was troublesome, but has come back. Now, we will see if it breaks out the top, stays there and continues to grow.

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2 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Possibly.  If you take out the totally unrealistic last half of 2017, I could see somewhat of a bull trend line still.

 

My issue with the term is that if you look at the last 15 months, we basically have been trading between 23,500 and 26,500.  It broke out the bottom at the end of last year, That was troublesome, but has come back. Now, we will see if it breaks out the top, stays there and continues to grow.

I mean, over the last 10 years the trend is definitely there. And, just to clarify, I'm using the term bull market here to suggest it going up - not the technical 20% up from a bear bottom definition (that ended last year at 3400+ days). I'd argue that the sell-off we saw during Q4 was a bit pre-mature and exacerbated by quants and tax-loss harvesting. I also understand what you're saying about a trading range, but that argument could be had for other periods in this bull market. Just look at the S&P for 2011 or 2015.

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On 4/5/2019 at 2:44 PM, HuskerNBigD said:

I mean, over the last 10 years the trend is definitely there. And, just to clarify, I'm using the term bull market here to suggest it going up - not the technical 20% up from a bear bottom definition (that ended last year at 3400+ days). I'd argue that the sell-off we saw during Q4 was a bit pre-mature and exacerbated by quants and tax-loss harvesting. I also understand what you're saying about a trading range, but that argument could be had for other periods in this bull market. Just look at the S&P for 2011 or 2015.

The sell off in Q4 very well could be the main reason why the YTD is so good.  Meaning, there isn't anything causing the rise in the stock market other than correcting the sell off.

 

Not sure what you're getting at with the bolded.  The S&P averaged around a 13% gain over those 4 years.

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19 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

The sell off in Q4 very well could be the main reason why the YTD is so good.  Meaning, there isn't anything causing the rise in the stock market other than correcting the sell off.

 

Not sure what you're getting at with the bolded.  The S&P averaged around a 13% gain over those 4 years.

OR, NOT AND/THROUGH. What was the return of the S&P in 2011 or 2015? Meaning those two years the market essentially traded flat or in a range similar in magnitude to the time period you were just criticizing. 

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