sho Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ric Flair said: Would black Americans approve of Trump if they thought he was? If they think he is but approve of him anyway, does it matter? Wrong. They key is do they actually know his history and know what he is doing now? Just because the number has gone up some marginal %, doesn't mean the change is based on 'educated' voters on who Trump is and what he stands for. Nor, do we know how the questions where asked. Could the questions on his approval be confusing for those answering the survey? A lot still goes into question without knowing all the info. It really doesn't prove that he's NOT racist because his approval ratings have gone up, it requires additional research. And the fact is valid, it doesn't matter if they think he is or not if his approval rating with that segment is going up, which all the polls are showing, it's just a matter of how much and why now. 1 Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 28 minutes ago, Ric Flair said: Wrong. 13 minutes ago, knapplc said: I posted three well-respected polls that disprove your opinion that it's wrong. You're welcome to your own opinions. But the facts remain the same. This really gets to how party politics work. There can be the vast majority of respected sources for information. However, someone will go out and find the one source that supports their agenda and wave that flag as though it's the only honest source of information. 3 Link to comment
knapplc Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 True. But to hang your hat on Rasmussen, a notably biased right-leaning pollster, is pretty silly. Quote Time magazine has described Rasmussen Reports as a "conservative-leaning polling group."[80] The Washington Post called Rasmussen a "polarizing pollster."[81] John Zogby said that Scott Rasmussen has a "conservative constituency."[82] The Center for Public Integrity listed "Scott Rasmussen Inc" as a paid consultant for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign.[83] The Washington Post reported that the 2004 Bush re-election campaign had used a feature on the Rasmussen Reports website that allowed customers to program their own polls, and that Rasmussen asserted that he had not written any of the questions nor assisted Republicans.[84] Rasmussen has received criticism over the wording in its polls.[85][86] Asking a polling question with different wording can affect the results of the poll;[87] the commentators in question allege that the questions Rasmussen ask in polls are skewed in order to favor a specific response. For instance, when Rasmussen polled whether Republican voters thought Rush Limbaugh was the leader of their party, the specific question they asked was: "Agree or Disagree: 'Rush Limbaugh is the leader of the Republican Party—he says jump and they say how high.'"[86] Talking Points Memo has questioned the methodology of Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index, which takes into account only those who "strongly" approve or disapprove of the President's job performance. TPM noted that this inherently skews negative, and reported that multiple polling experts were critical of the concept.[43] A New York Times article claims Ramussen Reports research has a "record of relying on dubious sampling and weighting techniques."[88] A 2017 article by Chris Cillizza for CNN raised doubts about Rasmussen's accuracy, drawing attention specifically to potential sampling biases such as the exclusion of calls to cell-phones (which, Cillizza argued, tended to exclude younger voters), and also more generally to a lack of methodological disclosure. Cillizza did, however, note in the same piece that Rasmussen was one of the more accurate polling organizations during the 2016 United States presidential election.[89] Founder Scott Rasmussen is the author of a book,[90] and was a featured guest on a cruise by the conservative media outlet The National Review, along with other conservative luminaries.[91] LINK 7 Link to comment
Enhance Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Ric Flair said: Irrelevant. Trump won with 8% or add of the black vote. Any increase to that 8% should have Democrats worried. Worried? Maybe. Concerned? Sure. 'Terrified?' Pure exaggeration. There's no other word for it. It's blatant hyperbole. There's also nothing conclusive about the data to suggest that it will have any kind of significant or notable impact on the next election. So far, across all sources, things are largely where they've always been. I agree that the slight increase should be something democrats take note of but everything else you're trying to make it out to be is either an overstatement or inconclusive. 4 Link to comment
Landlord Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 It's got to be convenient to Trump's interpretation of the numbers that there isn't an actual opponent yet, like there will be in 2020, right? 2 Link to comment
Danny Bateman Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 3 hours ago, Landlord said: It's got to be convenient to Trump's interpretation of the numbers that there isn't an actual opponent yet, like there will be in 2020, right? I was thinking something along these lines. Approval rating in August of 2018 does not equal votes for Trump in 2020. Much the same way that people that currently disapprove of him may be pushed into voting for him if Dems nominate someone like Kanye. Link to comment
TGHusker Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 Terrified I don't think so. - all the Dems have to do is run Sen Booker on the ticket - even as VP - and I suspect most African American voters will come home to the Dems. Even if there is a 'lean' towards Trump now due to tax cuts or some other economic reason, he has to be able to hold that lean for 2 years. Doubt that happens - Trump is to erratic and the economy may change drastically in that time frame. 2 Link to comment
Ric Flair Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 10 hours ago, knapplc said: So you don't know what the poll asked, how the question was worded, or what biases may have been used to get the answer Rasmussen wanted. They're known for that, so it's worth asking. I posted three well-respected polls that disprove your opinion that it's wrong. You're welcome to your own opinions. But the facts remain the same. The primary difference between Rasmussen and the rest is that they typically screen for likely voters. Others tend to add those screens later in the election cycle. So if you want to know what random people think, read another poll. If you want to know what voters think, Rasmussen is the better bet. Link to comment
Ric Flair Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 10 hours ago, sho said: They key is do they actually know his history and know what he is doing now? Just because the number has gone up some marginal %, doesn't mean the change is based on 'educated' voters on who Trump is and what he stands for. Nor, do we know how the questions where asked. Could the questions on his approval be confusing for those answering the survey? A lot still goes into question without knowing all the info. It really doesn't prove that he's NOT racist because his approval ratings have gone up, it requires additional research. And the fact is valid, it doesn't matter if they think he is or not if his approval rating with that segment is going up, which all the polls are showing, it's just a matter of how much and why now. Are you arguing that voters are educated? I'm sure not. Would black voters who think Trump is racist vote for him anyway? I doubt many would. But if they approve of him and vote for him, does it matter if they think he's racist? 1 Link to comment
Ric Flair Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 10 hours ago, BigRedBuster said: This really gets to how party politics work. There can be the vast majority of respected sources for information. However, someone will go out and find the one source that supports their agenda and wave that flag as though it's the only honest source of information. Every source of information shows that Trump's approval rating among black voters has grown since election day. That does two things... Dispels the nonsense that he's an evil racist bigot. Increases the likelihood he wins reelection. 2 Link to comment
Ric Flair Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 9 hours ago, Enhance said: Worried? Maybe. Concerned? Sure. 'Terrified?' Pure exaggeration. There's no other word for it. It's blatant hyperbole. There's also nothing conclusive about the data to suggest that it will have any kind of significant or notable impact on the next election. So far, across all sources, things are largely where they've always been. I agree that the slight increase should be something democrats take note of but everything else you're trying to make it out to be is either an overstatement or inconclusive. His numbers among black voters are better...perhaps far better...than in 2016 when he won. I guarantee you that has the DNC's attention. 2 Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ric Flair said: Dispels the nonsense that he's an evil racist bigot. Unmmm......no. 2 Link to comment
knapplc Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Waldo said: Knap is never wrong Facts are never wrong. Facts are facts. Stick to facts and be right more often than not. This isn't rocket surgery. 2 Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, Waldo said: This political section is liberals only. Any argument against them is easily nixed and Knap is never wrong. 6 more years Then why do they let me post here? 7 Link to comment
funhusker Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, Waldo said: This political section is liberals only. Any argument against them is easily nixed and Knap is never wrong. 6 more years How did you find the way through the "double top secret extra secure password retina exam" to post here????? MODS!!!!!!!! (Oh wait....you're just incorrect. No biggie ) 1 Link to comment
Recommended Posts