Popular Post Mavric Posted September 16, 2018 Popular Post Share Posted September 16, 2018 Obviously things haven't worked out well so far. But we are actually doing a lot of things well. It's mostly that the few things we aren't doing well are having a huge impact on the games. Yes, those things need to be fixed. But I think we're actually playing a lot better than the results show - as Frost said. Here are the stats to back it up: We are #43 in the country in Yards per Game. Not great but we were #3 in the country after one game and took a nose dive when he had to play our backup QB. But we are #103 in the country in Points per Game. That's a 60 rank difference between how our offense is moving the ball and how we're scoring. That is the second-worst rank difference in the nation (Purdue is 67 spots worse). If we can keep moving the ball like that, the points will come. And the crazy thing is it's almost the exact same story on defense. We are #39 in the country in Yards Allowed per game. Again, not great. But we are #90 in the country in Points Allowed per Game. That's 51 spots worse and that is the worst difference in the country. Points are obviously what wins and loses games. But I've long said that yards are a better indication of future success. Points can be fluky - special teams and defensive TDs come and go, especially on a small sample size. And turnovers can change field position in a hurry. But if you're good in the the yards categories - or, in our case, much better than the points have shown - chances are things will even out. I think we'll see a regression to the mean going forward. Which in this case is a good thing for us. Maybe not this weekend as we play our toughest opponent so far. But it will show up soon. 16 1 Quote Link to comment
TheSker Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 Agreed. With the final scores as close as they've been, I think turnover margin is our biggest issue. 2 Quote Link to comment
grandpasknee Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 I will be in the stands for either our second or first win of the year when we play Purdue. Either way, my enthusiasm will not be curbed. 1 Quote Link to comment
macroboy Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 These numbers say turnovers, special teams, and penalties are killing us, which is also what my eyeballs tell me when I watch the games. 6 1 Quote Link to comment
lo country Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 It's hard to win having 3 turn overs. Even harder with a back up QB. Gotta clean up the TO's and penalties if we expect to win. 1 Quote Link to comment
Treand3 Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 Good research Mav. Quote Link to comment
JJ Husker Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 Agree. A big contributor to that yardage/points differential has to be our turnovers. Perfect example is that first drive we had against CU. March right down the field and then cough it up inside the 20. Another factor is that our red zone offense has been pretty poor. We have been moving the ball well, particularly extra well with Martinez. The points should follow if we just reduce turnovers, actually make some field goals and start punching it in inside the 20. But I think any real improvement is going to require a healthy AM. And if we need to go with Bunch again, the OL is going to have to perform much better than they did against Troy. It's obvious the full playbook is not in his arsenal so the OL is going to have to make up for that deficiency. Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 There is definitely more hope in a team that is bad at these things than in a team that can’t move the ball and has the ball moved on them at will. 2 Quote Link to comment
Making Chimichangas Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Mavric said: Obviously things haven't worked out well so far. But we are actually doing a lot of things well. It's mostly that the few things we aren't doing well are having a huge impact on the games. Yes, those things need to be fixed. But I think we're actually playing a lot better than the results show - as Frost said. Here are the stats to back it up: We are #43 in the country in Yards per Game. Not great but we were #3 in the country after one game and took a nose dive when he had to play our backup QB. But we are #103 in the country in Points per Game. That's a 60 rank difference between how our offense is moving the ball and how we're scoring. That is the second-worst rank difference in the nation (Purdue is 67 spots worse). If we can keep moving the ball like that, the points will come. And the crazy thing is it's almost the exact same story on defense. We are #39 in the country in Yards Allowed per game. Again, not great. But we are #90 in the country in Points Allowed per Game. That's 51 spots worse and that is the worst difference in the country. Points are obviously what wins and loses games. But I've long said that yards are a better indication of future success. Points can be fluky - special teams and defensive TDs come and go, especially on a small sample size. And turnovers can change field position in a hurry. But if you're good in the the yards categories - or, in our case, much better than the points have shown - chances are things will even out. I think we'll see a regression to the mean going forward. Which in this case is a good thing for us. Maybe not this weekend as we play our toughest opponent so far. But it will show up soon. I agree. One point which needs to be reiterated: in today's college football, with so many teams running spread offenses and going uptempo, opponents are going to get yards and points. With the way the rules have been changed giving offenses practically every advantage, even great defenses are giving up more yards and points than they did even 10 years ago. So yes, we are definitely improving--just don't have the Ws to show for it. Quote Link to comment
Guy Chamberlin Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 1 hour ago, TheSker said: Agreed. With the final scores as close as they've been, I think turnover margin is our biggest issue. As it was in 2015, when you also pleaded patience. 3 Quote Link to comment
Undone Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 We were just -1 in the turnover margin against Troy, but we're now -4 for the season. Sure, maybe that season total would be less if we had actually played Akron...but maybe not. So, turnover margin is already pretty bad. And for us as fans that have watched that for so long, I think it even feels worse. Let's say we down their punt returner within 10 yards of fielding the punt that he took to the house, and then let's say they get no points on that drive. If we then make that second half field goal we missed, we probably win 22-17. So compare things to the situation we were in after losing to Northern Illinois last season. Is it the same? No. Completely different feel to things, and for several reasons. Hard to say which of the two teams' defenses we've faced so far is actually better. But the box score is kind of crazy; with Martinez playing the majority of the game against Colorado we rushed for 329 yards. Without Martinez against Troy, we rushed for 187. And we left a ton of 3rd & shorts out onto the field. That was so painful to watch. Quote Link to comment
Undone Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Guy Chamberlin said: As it was in 2015, when you also pleaded patience. You're all about trying to catch people in double standards over the past couple of weeks, aren't you, Guy! Taking the Prodigal Son and his tie to 90's glory out of the current equation, there's one main reason to be patient right now as opposed to that situation in 2015, and his name is Adrian Martinez. I honestly still can't believe that we recruited him - as he's an unbelievable talent - and he's injured. So maybe to just get ahead of your argument a bit (and I'm not making this personal at all towards you - you're one of the best posters on this board), one would almost be a complete idiot for not having patience right now. 1 Quote Link to comment
TheSker Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said: As it was in 2015, when you also pleaded patience. 2015 was Mike Riley's first season. I did not plead for patience with Riley.....quite the opposite. Riley had a horrible resume' and an athletic director with the bold claim Riley was brought in to take the team to the next level. Your post could not be more incorrect. 1 Quote Link to comment
Undone Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 Honestly it would just be really nice if threads wouldn't devolve into arguing over past coaches and who did/didn't support them. This thread has good potential to actually discuss our team's play. 3 2 Quote Link to comment
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