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Bracketology 2019

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Here's the way I look at the remaining 15 games, and this is obviously just my opinion.

 

The next 5 games are @Indiana, vs Michigan State, @Rutgers, vs Ohio State and vs Wisconsin. I feel like we need to win 3 out of 5 here. There is no way we are winning against Michigan State in my opinion so we need to win 3 out of the other 4.

 

The next 5 games after that are @Illinois, vs Maryland, @Purdue, vs Minnesota and vs Northwestern. I feel like we need to win 4 our of this 5 since we have 3 home games and we go to Illinois.

 

The last 5 games are @Penn State, vs Purdue, @Michigan, @Michigan State and vs Iowa. I think we need to win 3 out of 5 here with obvious losses @Michigan and @Michigan State. 

 

That would leave our record at 22-9 going in to the conference tournament. If we could win a couple of games in the tournament I think we have a good chance of making it in. The way we look lately though, I'm not sure if everything is possible that I laid out.

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37 minutes ago, SandhillshuskerW said:

Here's the way I look at the remaining 15 games, and this is obviously just my opinion.

 

The next 5 games are @Indiana, vs Michigan State, @Rutgers, vs Ohio State and vs Wisconsin. I feel like we need to win 3 out of 5 here. There is no way we are winning against Michigan State in my opinion so we need to win 3 out of the other 4.

 

The next 5 games after that are @Illinois, vs Maryland, @Purdue, vs Minnesota and vs Northwestern. I feel like we need to win 4 our of this 5 since we have 3 home games and we go to Illinois.

 

The last 5 games are @Penn State, vs Purdue, @Michigan, @Michigan State and vs Iowa. I think we need to win 3 out of 5 here with obvious losses @Michigan and @Michigan State. 

 

That would leave our record at 22-9 going in to the conference tournament. If we could win a couple of games in the tournament I think we have a good chance of making it in. The way we look lately though, I'm not sure if everything is possible that I laid out.

22-9 would get NU in for sure.  I think NU is in at 20-11.

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2 hours ago, ECisGod said:

And Jerry Palm has them as a 7 seed.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

 

3 hours ago, ECisGod said:

Lunardi still has them as a 6 seed

 

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

its so interesting to see the differences in bracketologists at this stage. For instance, Lunardi doesn't even have Temple in the field, while Palm has them safely in as a 10 seed. 

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1 minute ago, ColoradoHusk said:

22-9 would get NU in for sure.  I think NU is in at 20-11.

 

I guess I'm not all that sure.  I'm a bit perplexed by how the new raking system works for sure.  It appears to give a lot of weight to margin of victory - which we did well early in the year - but I still wonder if our schedule isn't going to catch up to us at some point.

 

The good thing - and probably helping our ranking - is all our losses are Quad 1.  But we've also stockpiled wins against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams.  Which I suppose most teams have at this point in the year.  But if we lose 7 games and they start falling in the lower categories - and we can't pick up some more nice wins - I think we'll fall down the list. 

 

I would think we'd still get in at 22-9 (but we didn't last year).  20-11 I'm not so sure.

 

Quad 1 - Clemson (58)

Quad 2 - Seton Hall (44), Oklahoma St (66)

Quad 3 - Creighton (52), Illinois (124), Penn St (77)

Quad 4 - MVS (349), SELA (332), MO St (190), WIll (300), Cal-Fullerton (243)

 

Quad 1 Losses - Texas Tech (4), Minnesota (56), Maryland (25), Iowa (34)

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On 1/11/2019 at 11:53 AM, Mavric said:

 

I guess I'm not all that sure.  I'm a bit perplexed by how the new raking system works for sure.  It appears to give a lot of weight to margin of victory - which we did well early in the year - but I still wonder if our schedule isn't going to catch up to us at some point.

 

The good thing - and probably helping our ranking - is all our losses are Quad 1.  But we've also stockpiled wins against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams.  Which I suppose most teams have at this point in the year.  But if we lose 7 games and they start falling in the lower categories - and we can't pick up some more nice wins - I think we'll fall down the list. 

 

I would think we'd still get in at 22-9 (but we didn't last year).  20-11 I'm not so sure.

 

Quad 1 - Clemson (58)

Quad 2 - Seton Hall (44), Oklahoma St (66)

Quad 3 - Creighton (52), Illinois (124), Penn St (77)

Quad 4 - MVS (349), SELA (332), MO St (190), WIll (300), Cal-Fullerton (243)

 

Quad 1 Losses - Texas Tech (4), Minnesota (56), Maryland (25), Iowa (34)

Creighton is a quad 2 win. Quad 2 at home is 31-75.

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"Checklist for 22"

 

Non-Con Must-Have Wins - Need All 7 - Check

Miss Valley St - SE Louisiana Seton Hall - Missouri St - Western Illinois - CSU Fullerton - Southwest Minnesota

 

Non-Con Toss-Ups - Need 2 - Plus 1

Clemson - Creighton - Oklahoma State - Texas Tech

 

Conference Must-Have Wins - Need 6 - Down 1

Illinois - Penn State - Rutgers - Illinois - Northwestern - Penn State

 

"Other" Conference Home Games - Need 5

Michigan State - Ohio State - Wisconsin - Maryland - Minnesota - Purdue - Iowa

 

"Other" Conference Road Games - Need 1 - Check

Minnesota - Maryland - Iowa - Indiana - Purdue - Michigan - Michigan State

 

Conference Tournament - Need 1

 

 

NET Rankings - Huskers #11 as of 1/18

Quad 1 - Clemson (54), Indiana (30)

Quad 2 - Seton Hall (49), Creighton (58), Oklahoma St (68)

Quad 3 - Illinois (99), Penn St (84)

Quad 4 - MVS (346), SELA (325), MO St (190), WIll (314), Cal-Fullerton (261)

 

Quad 1 Losses - Texas Tech (8), Minnesota (63), Maryland (21), Iowa (25), Michigan State (6)

Quad 3 Loss - Rutgers (142)

 

 

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

 

Edited by Mavric
Updated
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We are at the point in the season where if we go .500 the rest of the year, we will end up at 20 wins. 

 

I expect us to do much better than that.  

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11 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

We are at the point in the season where if we go .500 the rest of the year, we will end up at 20 wins. 

 

I expect us to do much better than that.  

 

22-9 sounds good.... 23-8 would be the ceiling in my opinion.

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2 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

 

22-9 sounds good.... 23-8 would be the ceiling in my opinion.

Well, from Mavrics post above, I expect us to win the 4 “must have wins”. We then have 7 home games. I think can win 6 of those. That gives us 10 wins for 23 total. 

 

So so I would agree with you. 

 

Is that “much better” than going .500? I think so. 

 

I really want us to win on Thursday. I’m so glad that is at home. Not expecting it....but damn it would be nice. 

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https://theathletic.com/755243/2019/01/08/bubble-watch-nobody-is-a-lock-except-duke-duke-is-a-lock-but-nobody-else/

 

Quote

Nebraska (11-4, 1-3 – NET: 15, SOS: 79): No Big Ten team was damaged more by the league’s struggles a year ago. The Cornhuskers took a couple of so-so losses (and missed out on beating Kansas by a single point) in nonconference play; Tim Miles told his players they would have to do their best work in the league. They did. In any other year, a 13-5 Big Ten record would include, by mathematical necessity, at least four or five quality wins. Nebraska’s didn’t; to the NIT it went.

 

The good news: The Big Ten is better. So is Nebraska.

 

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3 minutes ago, seaofred92 said:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

5 seed in Jacksonville vs Murray State. That sounds great until you realize we'd have to play Ja Morant.

 

Win that one and we get Kentucky (or Georgia State). 

 

How great would it be to steal Wandale, and beat Kentucky to get to the Sweet 16 all within 6 months?:lol:

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1 hour ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

 

How great would it be to steal Wandale, and beat Kentucky to get to the Sweet 16 all within 6 months?:lol:

Don't forget we eliminated Kentucky in the VBall tourney the same week Wandale flipped!

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The rest of the season is going to be interesting.  Earlier I said that I think we very well could win 10 of the last 14 games to get to 23 wins.

 

I just looked and in the Big Ten rankings.  9 of our last 14 games are against teams that are ranked tied or above us.

 

There's a lot of fun basketball left to watch.

 

I count that we ended 13-6 in conference last year. (thought there were 20 games, but I counted it twice).  We are currently 3-3.  If my prediction of 10 wins to finish out holds up, we could end up with the same conference record, but one hell of a lot better in our post season placing.

 

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2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

The rest of the season is going to be interesting.  Earlier I said that I think we very well could win 10 of the last 14 games to get to 23 wins.

 

I just looked and in the Big Ten rankings.  9 of our last 14 games are against teams that are ranked tied or above us.

 

There's a lot of fun basketball left to watch.

 

I count that we ended 13-6 in conference last year. (thought there were 20 games, but I counted it twice).  We are currently 3-3.  If my prediction of 10 wins to finish out holds up, we could end up with the same conference record, but one hell of a lot better in our post season placing.

 

13-6 would include the loss in the B1G tournament.  We went 13-5 in the regular season in conference.

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https://theathletic.com/766952/2019/01/15/bubble-watch-what-does-it-mean-to-be-a-lock/

 

Quote

Nebraska (13-4, 3-3 – NET: 13, SOS: 6): After last year’s will-they-won’t-they drama, the Cornhuskers are on track to make this year’s tournament outlook entirely free of suspense. Already wielding a solid résumé, Nebraska turned in as impressive an effort as it has all season in a 15-point win at Indiana on Monday. Next up? Thursday’s date with Michigan State.

 

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It does seem like the Huskers are going to benefit from two big factors - the B1G is much better this year than it was last year and other conferences are not very good.  I've seen a couple different places predicting the B1G will get 10 teams in and leagues like the Pac-12 might only get 1 or 2.

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Mavric said:

It does seem like the Huskers are going to benefit from two big factors - the B1G is much better this year than it was last year and other conferences are not very good.  I've seen a couple different places predicting the B1G will get 10 teams in and leagues like the Pac-12 might only get 1 or 2.

 

 

10 seems like a lot of teams to get in.

 

I think it is safe to say these B1G teams are probably not getting in unless they make a major run:

Penn State

Illinois

Rutgers

Northwestern

 

 

Now we still have 10 teams left and while I think you could make an argument for all 10 to a point, I think they start to cancel eachother out even if the season ended today. 

 

Its crazy that teams 4-10 are only split by 1.5 games. 

 

I think we will see some teams come back to where they should be and sort of assume Ohio State, Wisconsin and Minnesota could be the three teams that fall out. 

 

 

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Good news:  Rutgers and PSU are still pretty bad

Bad news:  Illinois just beat Minny by 30, their 5 star PG/SG has gone for 20+ four out of the last five games and their gimmicky defense can cause problems.

Good news:  Michigan is due for a loss...who will be the team to beat them in conference?

Bad news:  Huskers have zero bench at all and the Big Ten is a freaking grind.

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21 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Good news:  Rutgers and PSU are still pretty bad

Bad news:  Illinois just beat Minny by 30, their 5 star PG/SG has gone for 20+ four out of the last five games and their gimmicky defense can cause problems.

Good news:  Michigan is due for a loss...who will be the team to beat them in conference?

Bad news:  Huskers have zero bench at all and the Big Ten is a freaking grind.

Buch is Buch.  We need Harris to get back in to playing shape and Nana to find his stroke.   If not, we are going to wear down!

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We win out at home and either win two on the road or win one on the road and in the tourney and we should be in. Every team will probably have a bad loss outside of Duke and the Elite teams. I wonder if we would get in going 20-11 or 21-12. 

 

Needless to say, it gets only tougher from here on out but these next 12 games will determine what team we have. 

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21 minutes ago, HuskermanMike said:

We win out at home and either win two on the road or win one on the road and in the tourney and we should be in. Every team will probably have a bad loss outside of Duke and the Elite teams. I wonder if we would get in going 20-11 or 21-12. 

 

Needless to say, it gets only tougher from here on out but these next 12 games will determine what team we have. 

Our Non-conference is a pretty strong resume. I think we can afford to go 10-10 in B1G play and be ok. 

 

3-5 in conference play right now.

 

Here is how we finish up

 

Home(7 games): Ohio State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa

Away(5 games): Illinois, Purdue, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State

 

We tend to be really good at home, so I put Ohio State, Wisconsin, MN, NW and Iowa as wins. Maryland and Purdue our toss ups.

 

Away games. I put Purdue, Michigan and MSU as losses. Honestly, we should beat Illinois and Penn State but who knows anymore. I put them as wins.

 

So, lets say that happens and trying to be a realist we lose to Maryland and Purdue. Neither are bad losses.

 

We end up 7-5 and finish 10-10.

 

I think 10-10 puts us somewhere around 7-10 ballpark. We would be 20-11 overall. Because of how deep the B1G is, I think we get in.

 

The Rutgers loss doesnt sink our battleship but it does put a stain on our resume and honestly, you dont want to give the committee any little stain to boot you out. 

 

I could have gotten over the loss if Rutgers just had an amazing night and was shooting lights out... They didnt. They looked awful and yet we simply didnt do anything to stop that. I think we should have beaten that team by 30...

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