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Mavric

Yards per Point

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I noted this after our first two games.  We are moving the ball really well, especially compared to the amount of points we're scoring.

 

Part of that - probably most of it - is we've killed ourselves with penalties and turnovers.  And, while those don't necessarily go away on their own, even a a basic regression to the mean would mean at least another touchdown per game.  Seven more points per game would move us up 40 spots in the scoring offense rankings.

 

 

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We're tragically lower than everyone else averaging within 50 yards of us in offense. Yikes. Knew that number had to be bad but it's different to actually see it as a statistic.

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Since we are talking yards per point, I thought I'd inform you all that...

If we were playing Fantasy Football with Martinez as our QB...

He would have 99 fantasy points, with an average of 24.75 a game (missed 1 games)

 

This would make him the 14th best QB in the NFL for total points and the 8th best by average points per game.

 

Just some food for thought for you guys.

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This partly explains our win loss record.  But, at the same time, it gives me encouragement.  We are able to move the ball in just about every game we've played.  Drives end because of turnovers and more so the last few, penalties.  Those are fixable problems.  Being able to move the ball tells me we have an offensive system and players that can accomplish it.  Fix the problems and our points per game go up significantly.

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Imo, there are five issues that have lead to lots of yards with less points than expected:

 

1. Offensive penalties: This is a no brainer that penalties kill drives.

2. Weak 3rd and short conversion: I don't know the exact number of 3rd & 1 or 3rd & 2 that Nebraska has failed to convert, but it's a lot.

3-5. Net punting resulting from ST penalities, poor punting average, and poor punt coverage. These combined lead to long fields for Nebraska (I think the average is starting somewhere around the 20-25 yard line) which means always having to run the length of the field to score. Constant long drives is not realistic.

 

Watching Nebraska's offense makes me want to call it a 'boom-or-bust' offense. Partially because you see them get a big run or pass, and if it's not a house call, the drive sputters. This results in yardage without points. However, I think a lot of the other factors I listed have such a big impact, I hesitate to call it a true 'boom-or-bust' offense.

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I don't think our offence or defence is built for the high speed offence ran at ucf or Oregon YET. With the big play makers we have I don't think it's completely necessary to go as fast as we can. The time of possession this year is completely lopsided and our defense is not built to be on the field 40/60 minutes of the game. I think our offense is definitely capable of out playing opponents defenses but it seems like we need to get our defense some rest. And on the offense, maybe it's just me but it seems like a lot of the holding calls are on the tail end of the drives. O line getting tired and starting to hold on to not get beat

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45 minutes ago, Thanks_Tom RR said:

Imo, there are five issues that have lead to lots of yards with less points than expected:

 

1. Offensive penalties: This is a no brainer that it penalties kill drives.

2. Weak 3rd and short conversion: I don't know the exact number of 3rd & 1 or 3rd & 2 that Nebraska has failed to convert, but it's a lot.

3-5. Net punting resulting from ST penalities, poor punting average, and poor punt coverage. These combined lead to long fields for Nebraska (I think the average is starting somewhere around the 20-25 yard line) which means always having to run the length of the field to score. Constant long drives is not realistic.

 

Watching Nebraska's offense makes me want to call it a 'boom-or-bust' offense. Partially because you see them get a big run or pass, and if it's not a house call, the drive sputters. This results in yardage without points. However, I think a lot of the other factors I listed have such a big impact, I hesitate to call it a true 'boom-or-bust' offense.

 

The bolded is what I've been thinking through the first five games as well.  It's the reason I was wondering where we rank in terms of time of possession.  A lot of your issues with the offense are what has caused the defense to look so bad especially 3-5.  Our punting and punt coverage has been bad.  Our offense starts out around the 20-25 while the opposing teams offense has a considerable shorter field.  Our offense doesn't seem to ever have the ball very long.  Then, we give up the ball for a short field to a tired defense.  I guess a boom or bust offense is okay as long as we're getting more boom.  Thus far, we haven't gotten enough boom.

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I can see this being a boom or bust type offense but that is not what has been limiting our points relative to the yards we’ve gained. IMO we really aren’t playing that fast and TOP is down due to the same reasons our points are.

 

Turnovers

Penalties, particularly ill timed drive killing penalties and those that put us in 3rd and long situations.

Failure to convert 3rd and 4th downs, long or short yardage

Special teams giving us crap field position

 

I know these issues have been pointed out, and rightly so. But they are not the indicators of a typical boom or bust offense. That would be playing fast and failing to convert 3rd downs. I’m guessing we’ll see plenty of that eventually but for right now what they really need to focus on is penalties, turnovers and winning field position. Those 3 will go a long way towards improving 3rd down efficiency and they will also stave off the negatives of a boom or bust offense.

 

The other killer for our W-L record has been defensive penalties. These also seem to be skewed towards the ill timed drive sustaining type that will just kill you. Simply put, this team needs to start playing a lot more disciplined ball or even the BC game might be in question.

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I think we are the biggest outlier on the entire graph other than perhaps the team with > 50 pts that is in the middle of the pack in yards. 

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8 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

This partly explains our win loss record.  But, at the same time, it gives me encouragement.  We are able to move the ball in just about every game we've played.  Drives end because of turnovers and more so the last few, penalties.  Those are fixable problems.  Being able to move the ball tells me we have an offensive system and players that can accomplish it.  Fix the problems and our points per game go up significantly.

 

Pretty much where I'm at.  Seems quite a bit different than other games we've lost over the last couple years where we are just getting totally out-played (except this year's Michigan game, of course).  We've out-yarded our opponent in three games and were neck-and-neck with Wisconsin.  Obviously the mistakes we make are too often huge ones but we're still doing a lot of things right.

 

One of these game I think we'll just be piling up points.  Hopefully more than just against B-C.

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I'm guessing it's already been posted somewhere (in the article I can't view?) but here are the rankings. Left column is 2018.

 

             

 

126 Nebraska 19.8 19.9 21.6 20.1 19.1 15.0
127 LA Monroe 20.0 19.0 20.3 18.1 20.8 13.5
128 Arkansas St 21.8 21.5 37.3 20.3 22.7 13.4
129 W Kentucky 23.1 19.3 19.1 19.1 24.5 15.9
130 Connecticut 25.1 23.3 23.4 31.0 21.8 17.8
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
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19 hours ago, Thanks_Tom RR said:

Imo, there are five issues that have lead to lots of yards with less points than expected:

 

1. Offensive penalties: This is a no brainer that it penalties kill drives.

2. Weak 3rd and short conversion: I don't know the exact number of 3rd & 1 or 3rd & 2 that Nebraska has failed to convert, but it's a lot.

3-5. Net punting resulting from ST penalities, poor punting average, and poor punt coverage. These combined lead to long fields for Nebraska (I think the average is starting somewhere around the 20-25 yard line) which means always having to run the length of the field to score. Constant long drives is not realistic.

 

Watching Nebraska's offense makes me want to call it a 'boom-or-bust' offense. Partially because you see them get a big run or pass, and if it's not a house call, the drive sputters. This results in yardage without points. However, I think a lot of the other factors I listed have such a big impact, I hesitate to call it a true 'boom-or-bust' offense.

 

6. We have 7 total yards of punt returns, averaging .58 yards per return. 

 

We have to shorten the field, that'll put more big plays on the scoreboard.

 

 

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We just need to score on 1st or 2nd down because we are not good on 3rd down.

 

63 3rd down attempts only 20 conversions.   122nd in nation.

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2 hours ago, Mavric said:

 

 

 

I think he might be oversimplifying by saying "that's what penalties will do." Untimely penalties and an offense that doesn't consistently convert on 3rd down, maybe? I don't even know if the last part is true about Nebraska. I just know there are heavily penalized teams that do well at scoring, like UCF last season. I suppose most of UCF's could've been on the defense.

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4 hours ago, Moiraine said:

I think he might be oversimplifying by saying "that's what penalties will do." Untimely penalties and an offense that doesn't consistently convert on 3rd down, maybe? I don't even know if the last part is true about Nebraska. I just know there are heavily penalized teams that do well at scoring, like UCF last season. I suppose most of UCF's could've been on the defense.

 

I'm sure it's a bit of an over-simplification.  But i think it's been pretty true for us.  We had a big play against Purdue wiped out by Foster's illegal hit.  We were moving the ball a couple times against Wisconsin before penalties backed us up.  While not exactly what he said, we've often started in worse field position because of a penalty on special teams.

 

It's pretty much what I said three years ago during Riley's first year when we were heavily penalized.  Penalties aren't a good indicator of wins and losses.  But my theory on that is that's because good teams can overcome the penalties and still win - Ohio State is #120 in penalty yardage this year, Michigan is #116.  And bad teams that don't commit many penalties are still bad - 1-5 Old Dominion is #8 in fewest penalty yards.  But for teams that are right on the bubble and playing a lot of close games - like we are this year and like we did in 2015 - penalties can make a huge difference.  One more score for us or one less score for the opponents would have changed the game in our favor against Colorado or Troy and could have made things different down the stretch against Purdue or Wisconsin.

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2 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

I'm sure it's a bit of an over-simplification.  But i think it's been pretty true for us.  We had a big play against Purdue wiped out by Foster's illegal hit.  We were moving the ball a couple times against Wisconsin before penalties backed us up.  While not exactly what he said, we've often started in worse field position because of a penalty on special teams.

 

It's pretty much what I said three years ago during Riley's first year when we were heavily penalized.  Penalties aren't a good indicator of wins and losses.  But my theory on that is that's because good teams can overcome the penalties and still win - Ohio State is #120 in penalty yardage this year, Michigan is #116.  And bad teams that don't commit many penalties are still bad - 1-5 Old Dominion is #8 in fewest penalty yards.  But for teams that are right on the bubble and playing a lot of close games - like we are this year and like we did in 2015 - penalties can make a huge difference.  One more score for us or one less score for the opponents would have changed the game in our favor against Colorado or Troy and could have made things different down the stretch against Purdue or Wisconsin.

 

 

Ya I can agree with that. I think instead of studying all games someone should narrow it down to games that were within 10 points, or teams that had X+ games that had <= 10 point margins. Then figure out whether penalties are a top factor.

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